After a tough go in 2017, Minnesota Wild fans are wondering how their team will handle the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft in 2021.
When the Golden Knights constructed their first roster through their own Expansion Draft, it was widely publicized that a number of teams around the NHL had been badly fleeced by Vegas’s first general manager, George McPhee. The Wild were one of those teams.
You may recall that McPhee managed to get then-Wild GM Chuck Fletcher to hand over Alex Tuch in exchange for Vegas selecting Erik Haula (McPhee also threw in a conditional third-round Draft pick). At the time, Minnesota faithful thought it was the best that Fletcher could have done under the circumstances, being that their blueline had two valuable young chips in Jonas Brodin and Matt Dumba, and only one of those two could be protected.
Well, as history would have it, Haula played a key role in Vegas’s success that season, scoring 29 goals and 26 assists, and finally became the player that Wild fans had hoped to see after watching him shine at the University of Minnesota. Even worse, Tuch has since developed into one of the VGK’s better players, notching 106 points in 194 career games after he wasn’t really given a chance by the Wild.
Certainly, Minnesota will avoid finding itself in another such predicament for the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft, right?
Assumptions
It’s odd that Brodin and Dumba are once again central to Minnesota’s Expansion protection plans, but here we are. The difference this time is that Brodin has a new contract with a no-movement clause, meaning that he is guaranteed to be protected.
With Jared Spurgeon and Ryan Suter also carrying NMC’s, new GM Billy Guerin has four options on how to handle Dumba:
Protect eight total skaters to keep Dumba, but this will mean exposing two more forwards.
Expose Dumba, but losing him for nothing would likely be worse than the 2017 outcome.
Make a side deal with the Kraken to get Seattle to avoid taking Dumba.
Trade Dumba before the Expansion Draft.
As soon as Brodin signed his seven-year extension in September, speculation began swirling that Guerin would trade Dumba. It’s no secret that Minnesota needs to upgrade at center, and Dumba is Guerin’s most valuable trade chip. Though Guerin was recently on the record saying he is “prepared to start the season with [Dumba],” all signs indicate that he will move the stud defenseman prior to the Expansion Draft.
For this exercise, we’re going to make a big assumption and say that Dumba will be traded for a top-six center prior to the end of the upcoming season. The Wild will end up going with the seven forwards/three defensemen/one goalie protection scheme in the Seattle Expansion Draft.
The Wild also now have a whole host of forwards on expiring contracts, including Johansson, Nick Bonino, Marcus Foligno, and Nick Bjugstad. Of those four, we’re going to assume that only Foligno – who has emerged as a leader for the Wild – will be re-signed.
Offseason WILDcards (Get It?)
Minnesota oddly got – at least on paper – even weaker down the middle this offseason when Guerin traded his top center, Eric Staal, to Buffalo for Johansson. He also allowed long-time captain Mikko Koivu to walk in free agency.
Johansson is a fine player, but he’s historically been more successful on wing. This leaves Johansson, Joel Eriksson Ek, Bonino, and Victor Rask (and perhaps the Wild give Nico Sturm a chance).
That’s simply not a good enough center group for the NHL, so one could still see a Dumba-for-a-center trade being consummated sooner rather than later.
Otherwise, this roster is set.
Wild Protected List
Forwards
Zach Parise (NMC, Lock)
Mats Zuccarello (NMC, Lock)
Kevin Fiala (Lock)
Mystery Center (Whichever player the Wild get in assumed Dumba trade)
Joel Eriksson Ek
Jordan Greenway
Marcus Foligno
There’s definitely a chance that Foligno ends up being exposed in favor of a younger player like Sturm, but based on the central role he’s played over the past couple of seasons for Minnesota, we will surmise that Guerin wants to keep him.
Defense
Ryan Suter (NMC, Lock)
Jared Spurgeon (NMC, Lock)
Jonas Brodin (NMC, Lock)
Goalie
Kaapo Kahkonen
The Wild signed Cam Talbot to replace Devan Dubnyk as their starting netminder this offseason, after Dubnyk was traded to the Sharks. Talbot’s deal runs through 2023, but this definitely feels like one of those, “sign and expose” deals, similar to what Braden Holtby signed in Vancouver.
Kahkonen has upside, just won the AHL Best Goaltender Award with the Iowa Wild, and even showed well in five games with the big club, going 3-1-1 in December.
Barring a phenomenal season by Talbot, if the Kraken want him, we think they can have him (but they probably won’t want him).
Top Kraken Expansion Draft Players
Forwards
Nico Sturm
Ryan Hartman
Marcus Johansson
Nick Bonino
Victor Rask
As far as Sound Of Hockey is concerned, Sturm is the most appealing of the forwards that we project to be made available by the Wild in the Seattle Expansion Draft. Again, his exposure would only happen if a Dumba trade is carried out and Foligno is re-signed and protected.
Sturm, 25, has been knocking on the NHL door for some time now. At this point, he’s still only played eight games for the Wild, but it’s easy to imagine him getting significant time this season, especially with the weakened center group.
The German-born player was signed in 2019 as an undrafted free agent out of Clarkson University, where he was nearly a point-per-game player over three seasons. In 2019-2020, he had 12 goals and 20 assists in 55 games with the Iowa Wild and two assists in six games with Minnesota. He’s 6’3” and 206 pounds and plays a solid two-way game.
Hartman, 26, is a known quantity at this point. He scored 19 goals and 12 assists in his first full NHL season in Chicago in 2016-2017 but has since been typecast into bottom-six checking roles in Nashville, Philadelphia, and Minnesota. This is likely the role Hartman would play in Seattle as well, should the Kraken be looking to fill that off the Wild roster.
Johansson and Bonino are both UFA’s, so for the Kraken to select either of them, the two sides would have to agree to a deal during Seattle’s 48-hour negotiating window, then the team would select one of them in the Expansion Draft. Either player would represent a solid veteran presence, but there will be more impactful forwards out there to fill those spots for Seattle.
The Wild would love for Seattle to take Rask and his $4 million cap hit off their hands, but we don’t think the Kraken will want that.
Defense
Carson Soucy
Louie Belpedio
Soucy, 26, has emerged as a bona fide NHL defenseman that would be playing in a top-four role on a lot of NHL teams. The former UMD Bulldog flew largely under the radar as a prospect after being selected in the fifth round in 2013, but has grown into a solid and reliable presence for Minnesota. He scored seven goals and seven assists in 55 games in his first season in the NHL in 2019-2020, and had 20 points the year before in Iowa.
Soucy earned a three-year $8.25 million extension this offseason, and with three NMC’s on Minnesota’s blueline, he cannot be protected from the Expansion Draft.
Belpedio is also intriguing (though less so than Soucy). Now 24 years old, it feels like Belpedio has been on the cusp of the NHL for a long time, but has never cracked the lineup, save for three total games over three years. As an AHLer, the former Miami University (Ohio) captain has notched 43 points in 142 games.
Goalie
Cam Talbot
Alex Stalock
We at Sound Of Hockey think there will be better veteran goalies available than Talbot. The real play here would be if Talbot has a great season and earns himself protection in Minnesota, making Kahkonen available. If that does happen, then Kahkonen would be worth snagging for Seattle.
Side Deal Scenarios
If Guerin does pull off a Dumba trade for a center, then he’s pretty well set up to only lose one relatively replaceable player in the lineup. After seeing how things played out with Vegas, Wild owner Craig Leipold likely won’t want to see Guerin throwing in any sweeteners for Seattle, so we would expect a Soucy- or Sturm-type player to be given up to the Kraken without a side deal.
That said, you can bet that Guerin would love to move Rask and/or Zuccarello, though Zuccarello would have to waive his NMC. Taking on one of those contracts could serve the Kraken a nice young prospect, à la Alex Tuch of 2017.
Also, what does happen if Guerin can’t find a trade partner with the right offer for Dumba?
The Wild have some big decisions to make before the Seattle Expansion Draft.
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at Sound Of Hockey and the host, producer, and editor of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is an inconsistent beer league goalie who believes that five players have to make a mistake before the puck gets to him. Follow him on Twitter @DarrenFunBrown or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
Owners of the longest current playoff drought in the NHL, the Buffalo Sabres appear to be on the verge of a breakthrough season that might also benefit the Seattle Kraken in the Expansion Draft.
The Sabres finished just three points behind – and played two games fewer than – the play-in bound Montreal Canadiens when last season was halted because of COVID-19.
During the offseason they landed the most coveted free agent forward, former Hart Trophy winner Taylor Hall, with a one-year, $8 million deal. Combined with franchise cornerstone center Jack Eichel (36 goals and 78 points in 68 games), newly added veteran centers Eric Staal and Cody Eakin, and budding talent in the organization (ranked No. 5 by The Athletic), Buffalo should be a playoff contender.
If the Sabres do indeed make the postseason for the first time in 10 years it would mean more options for the Kraken’s Expansion Draft. Identifying the Sabres’ best players destined to be protected is a mostly straightforward exercise, as spelled out below. But to reach the playoffs, Eichel, Hall, young star defenseman Rasmus Dahlin, et al. will need members of their supporting cast to step up. And that will surely mean more attractive players from which the Kraken will have to choose.
Assumptions
Buffalo and Seattle face a Taylor Hall dilemma up until 2021 Expansion Draft day.
If Buffalo re-signs him before then, he’ll naturally be protected. Considering all the uncertainty about 2020-21, the flat cap, and sagging hockey-related revenues, don’t bet on Hall re-signing during the season. He shrewdly grabbed that one-year deal with an eye on hitting it big on a long-term deal with his next contract, and he’s going to see how he fits in with Buffalo.
Sound Of Hockey’s John Barr previously threw down the possibility of the Kraken taking Hall despite his looming unrestricted free agency. If he’s out there unprotected, the Kraken need to be ready with creative contract offers to dazzle Hall and his agent. Seattle will have an exclusive 48-hour window to negotiate with pending unrestricted free agents prior to the Expansion Draft. That’s a tight time frame to reach a deal on a career-defining contract, but no team will be in better position than the Kraken to put something like that together.
Of course, Buffalo might try to unload Hall close to the trade deadline if the playoffs seem out of reach.
Offseason Sabres Wildcards
Buffalo has $3.496 million in cap space and 21 of 23 roster spots taken, according to CapFriendly.com. More offseason free agent moves are not likely, but then again few people expected Hall to sign with the Sabres.
Sabres Protected List
Forwards
Jack Eichel (Lock)
Sam Reinhart (Lock)
Victor Olofsson (Lock)
Jeff Skinner (Lock, NMC)
Casey Mittlestadt
Tage Thompson
Rasmus Asplund
Mittlestadt, the eighth overall pick in 2017, hasn’t lived up to expectations in two pro seasons, including half of last year in the minors.
Coming off a season-ending shoulder injury, Thompson, 23, is a 6-6, 215-pound right winger who still has to prove he can stick in the NHL.
If Hall re-signs, he’d replace Asplund, 22, on the protected list. But at least Asplund has been playing recently. He just completed his loan to Vasteras IK in Sweden’s second tier pro league, scoring four goals and nine points in 14 games.
Defense
Rasmus Dahlin (Lock)
Rasmus Ristolainen (Lock)
Henri Jokiharju
Goalie
Jonas Johansson
Third-stringer Johansson, 25, should push for some NHL playing time after going 14-4-3 with a 2.28 GAA and .921 save percentage last season at AHL Rochester. He was recently loaned to the Krefeld Penguins in Germany’s top hockey league, the Deutsche Eishockey Liga.
Top Kraken Expansion Draft Players
Forwards
Taylor Hall
Cody Eakin
Zemgus Girgensons
As mentioned above, Hall is an option to pursue if he’s a pending unrestricted free agent.
Third-line center Eakin has been through this before. The Vegas Golden Knights selected him from the Dallas Stars in the 2017 Expansion Draft. He spent two-and-a-half seasons there, scoring 37 goals and 41 assists in 199 games before being traded to the Winnipeg Jets in February.
Girgensons is also a third-liner who can kill penalties but has reached 30 points in a season just once in eight years in the NHL.
Defense
Colin Miller
Brandon Montour
Jake McCabe
Will Borgen
Jokiharju, 21, is a near-lock to be protected, leaving McCabe, 27, Miller, 28, Montour, 26 and Borgen, 23, as the best remaining blue line options available to the Kraken.
If Hall is out of the picture, we see it coming down to one of three defensemen: Jokiharju, Montour or Miller.
Miller was taken by the Golden Knights in the Expansion Draft and had a career year in Vegas’ debut season with 10 goals and 41 points. He played well last season when he was paired with Dahlin, so he could ride the young Swede’s coattails to a bounce back from one goal and 11 points in 51 games.
Montour will be an unrestricted free agent next offseason, so the Kraken might consider using the 48-hour window to negotiate with him if he improves from a down season (five goals, 18 points). Head coach Ralph Krueger clearly favored Montour over others, as he ranked second in ice time per game among Sabres defensemen in 2019-20. His puck possession skills give him an edge as he finished near the top of the NHL in zone entries per 60 minutes, according to Die By The Blade.
If the Kraken want a stay-at-home defender, McCabe or Borgen will be options. McCabe (6-1, 204 pounds) plays a shut-down role and doesn’t offer much offensive production. After two seasons in the AHL, Borgen (6-3,198 pounds) could make a push for a roster spot in 2020-21.
Goalie
Linus Ullmark
Goaltending is Buffalo’s weakest link, and Linus Ullmark, 27, hasn’t exactly seized No. 1 role. He and Carter Hutton will be unrestricted free agents after this season, so the Sabres recently signed Dustin Tokarski, 31, to a two-year deal to ensure they’ll have a live body under contract to leave exposed in the Expansion Draft. Nothing to see here from Seattle’s standpoint, unless Buffalo makes Johansson available.
Side Deal Scenarios
Kraken general manager Ron Francis knows Jeff Skinner well from when they were both in Carolina. Could the former Hurricanes GM be convinced to take Skinner if he waives his no-movement clause? Bear with us for a moment.
Skinner, 28, has a hefty contract worth an average annual value of $9 million through 2026-27. He didn’t come close to deserving that much in the first year of the deal, notching 14 goals, 23 points, minus-22 and a paltry 7.7 shooting percentage in 59 games last season.
That’s a lot of money to be on the hook for until Skinner is 35, so the Sabres would have to offer a mighty amazing sweetener in the form of a quality player or valuable prospect. It’s a type of move that would impact his longevity in Seattle, so Francis would have to be absolutely sure Skinner can bounce back and show he deserves to be among the current top 25 highest-paid players in the league. Selecting Skinner alone would be foolish, but Buffalo dangling a top forward prospect such as Dylan Cozens would be tantalizing.
Other Kraken Expansion Draft Notes
Another interesting layer of intrigue is Francis’ former Hurricanes teammate Kevyn Adams taking over as Buffalo’s GM in June. On the surface, before any games have been played under his tenure, Adams has done a nice job at reshaping the Sabres. Can the wily veteran Francis outfox the rookie GM when the Kraken decide which Buffalo player to take at draft time?
Discuss that and other Buffalo scenarios below.
Previous Sound of Hockey Expansion Draft team previews
Jim Wilkie is a longtime Northwest journalist, former NHL editor and NHL Insider writer for ESPN.com, a onetime GSHL All-Star, and SJHA hockey dad. Follow him on Twitter @jimwilkie.
The Devils have some intriguing pieces for the Seattle Kraken in their upcoming Expansion Draft.
New Jersey was one of the “winners” of the 2019 offseason after making a few splashy trades and signings and re-shaping the look of its roster. It followed that up, though, by winning very few games in what ended up being a complete trainwreck of a season.
Despite trading for P.K. Subban and Nikita Gusev from Nashville and Vegas, respectively, signing power forward Wayne Simmonds to a one-year contract, and drafting Jack Hughes first overall in the 2019 NHL Draft, the Devils were putrid last season.
New Jersey finished with 72 points, good for last in the Metropolitan Division and second-to-last in the entire Eastern Conference ahead of only Ottawa’s 64 points. It shipped out star winger Taylor Hall and center Blake Coleman at the deadline in a fire sale and sacked both general manager Ray Shero and head coach John Hynes midseason. Subban’s production steeply declined and Hughes did not make the impact many expected him to make as a rookie.
The season could not have gone any worse.
The Devils have made a few somewhat off-the-radar acquisitions this offseason, including acquiring Andreas Johnsson in a deal with Toronto and trading for former Everett Silvertip Ryan Murray, who was previously with Columbus.
The Devils’ situation heading into the upcoming season is still dire, but there are some unknowns surrounding New Jersey that Kraken fans should consider prior to the Seattle Expansion Draft.
Assumptions
New Jersey, like many other franchises at the bottom of the standings, is clutching to its young and upcoming players and deep prospect pool. That pool was ranked second overall on prospect analyst Corey Pronman’s 2020-2021 NHL organizational rankings in the The Athletic. Unfortunately for Seattle, Hughes, Gusev, and Jesper Boqvist are exempt from the Expansion Draft, and the Devils most likely won’t be willing to trade one of their top prospects in a side deal.
For this exercise we’re assuming the Devils will re-sign winger Kyle Palmieri and the newly acquired Murray, both of whom are unrestricted free agents this offseason.
We are also assuming that father time will continue to hamper Subban’s career and he doesn’t return to form as a top-level defenseman in 2020-2021.
New Jersey is projected to have $17 million in cap space, according to CapFriendly.com, so it could sign more pieces yet this offseason or acquire players during the season in trades. But rebuilding teams aren’t usually willing to commit to the amount of money and term required to land impact players, and it shouldn’t be expected for New Jersey to do so.
Protected List
New Jersey took the eight total skaters approach in 2017 during the Vegas Expansion Draft, and it’s possible that it could do that again for Seattle. This is contingent on what happens with Palmieri and how general manager Tom Fitzgerald views his crop of defensemen.
Fitzgerald, who was promoted from assistant general manager after Shero’s midseason firing, has been in the Devils organization since 2015 and has played a part in building this roster.
For now, we will assume the Devils protect the more commonly chosen seven forwards and three defensemen for the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft.
Forwards
The only immediate difference makers the Devils possess at forward will almost certainly be protected or exempt. Former first overall pick Nico Hischier and 22-year-old Jesper Bratt are locks to be protected, along with Palmieri if he’s re-signed.
Young centers Pavel Zacha, 23, and Micheal McLeod, 22, are strong candidates for protection, especially if New Jersey decides to keep seven forwards. Same with Johnsson, 25, who is under contract through 2022-2023 and Nick Merkley, one of the cornerstones of the trade return from Arizona for Hall.
Janne Kuokkanen could be the odd man out, and he’s an intriguing option for Seattle. The 22-year-old center tallied 33 points and 15 goals for Binghamton, the Devils’ American Hockey League affiliate, in 2019-2020 and comes with second-round pedigree. If Seattle wanted a young piece from the Devils, this may be a good fit.
Miles Wood, 25, is a depth guy Seattle could target. Nathan Bastian, 22, is a former second-round pick that Seattle might consider if his next season in the AHL goes well. Same with Yegor Sharangovich, 22, who has scored 10 goals in the KHL – Russia’s top league that is considered one of the world’s best – and could see his stock rise as well.
Protected:
Jesper Bratt (lock)
Nico Hischier (lock)
Kyle Palmieri (lock, if re-signed)
Nick Merkley
Pavel Zacha
Andreas Johnsson
Michael McLeod
Defensemen
Will Butcher, 25, and Damon Severson, 26, are relatively young defensemen with term that are almost guaranteed to be protected.
Where it gets interesting is what New Jersey will do with Subban and Murray.
Subban, 31, is coming off the worst season of his career with 18 points in 68 games for the Devils and carries a brutal $9 million cap hit through the 2021-2022 season. It’s very possible the Devils will leave Subban, who is a magnetic and electrifying presence on the ice at his peak, unprotected and dare Seattle to take on his huge salary.
Murray, 27, is a former No. 2 overall draft pick that is still in his prime, but struggled mightily with staying healthy in his time with the Blue Jackets. He is an unrestricted free agent after this season, so what New Jersey does with his contract will be telling.
New Jersey could leave one of the four aforementioned blueliners unprotected with the thought that top prospects Ty Smith, a first-round pick in 2018 who played his junior hockey with the WHL’s Spokane Chiefs, and Kevin Bahl, a bruising 6-foot-7, 240-pound rearguard that was the other big piece of the Hall trade, are ready to graduate to the NHL this year. Both are exempt from the Expansion Draft.
Connor Carrick, 26, is another player Seattle could look toward. Although he’s not nearly as exciting as Murray or Subban, he’s a solid depth piece. Carrick would be a free agent, so Seattle would have to take advantage of its 48-hour UFA negotiating window and determine if they could sign him before selecting him from New Jersey.
The Kraken could also consider Colton White, 23, who is expected to contend for a spot in New Jersey’s blueline corps this season. Or it could take a flyer on Josh Jacobs, 24, a former second-round pick that has yet to stick in the NHL, though there will likely be better options available than Jacobs.
Protected:
Damon Severson
Will Butcher
Ryan Murray
Goalie
Mackenzie Blackwood, New Jersey’s upstart 23-year-old goalie, is a sure bet for protection, which leaves Corey Crawford, 35, who will make $3.9 million in 2021-2022. The former Blackhawks goalie could be a candidate for Seattle to select if it wants a veteran netminder on the roster. But there will be younger veteran alternatives to Crawford, which makes him a long shot to be taken by the Kraken.
Evan Cormier, 23, is a young goalie that the Kraken could select in order to add organizational depth in net.
Top Expansion Draft Targets
Forwards:
Janne Kuokkanen
Miles Wood
Nathan Bastian
Yegor Sharangovich
Defensemen:
P.K. Subban
Connor Carrick (UFA – Would Need to Be Signed)
Josh Jacobs
Colton White
Goaltender:
Corey Crawford
Overall Thoughts
Despite being in the NHL’s basement last season, New Jersey contains a ton of interesting options for Seattle in the 2021 Expansion Draft. Still, there are only a few – like Subban or Murray – that could be part of the Kraken’s inaugural nucleus.
Outside of that, Seattle has plenty of options for a young player still with potential, such as Kuokkanen or Sharangovich, or a depth piece to fill out the lineup, like Wood or Carrick.
There are several different directions Seattle can go here but with no obvious slam dunk pick. It may just come down to what Seattle needs most from New Jersey after some of the other chips fall.
Side Deal Scenarios
There is a chance New Jersey incentivizes Seattle into taking Subban’s monster $9 million cap hit, especially if things go even more sour for the former Norris Trophy winner in 2020. But with the Devils not lacking cap space – at least right now – there may be no need.
Subban’s contract is up after the 2021-2022 season. If New Jersey’s young core arrives sooner than some expect, it might behoove the Devils to rid themselves of his albatross contract to ensure Seattle doesn’t take someone like Kuokkanen, McLeod, Merkley, Sharangovich, Bastian, or Wood.
Believe it or not, it’s only been four years since the Anaheim Ducks played in the Western Conference Finals. Since then, the franchise experienced a first-round playoff exit followed by two complete misses of the postseason. Now, the Ducks find themselves in the purgatory of a roster with aging, high-priced veterans mixed with a handful of prospects whose ultimate value has yet to be discovered. An added challenge for the Ducks will be the Seattle Expansion Draft.
General manager Bob Murray has a difficult task ahead of him in rebuilding. Those veterans are expensive, and he’ll have a tough time moving them due to a flat cap plus the six modified no-trade clauses on his payroll. It’s a combination that will limit how much cap space he can free up while adding picks at the trade deadline.
Will that entice Murray and the Ducks to expose a veteran to the Kraken in the Seattle Expansion Draft?
Assumptions
Ducks legend Ryan Getzlaf is scheduled to be a free agent after the upcoming season and technically would not need to be protected. However, it’s likely that the 35-year-old center will be re-signed by Anaheim and that could come during the upcoming season. For this exercise, we’ll assume that he extends with Anaheim and is protected.
Roster Wildcards
With no cap space, the Ducks roster is set by default. Along with Getzlaf, veteran forward David Backes is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent after this season.
Protected List
Forwards
If Murray feels he needs to shed a high salary, he could dangle a player like Adam Henrique in front of Seattle by unprotecting the veteran. The 30-year-old has four years left on his contract that carries a $5.8 million cap hit with it. This is a long shot as Henrique is coming off his best season in Anaheim since being traded from New Jersey in 2017. He potted 26 goals on 43 points and was a positive possession player (52% Corsi for).
It’s more likely, though, that the Ducks veteran forwards will be protected along with young players like Sam Steel and Troy Terry. The seventh forward will come down to one of a handful of other young players, depending on how they fare with Anaheim this year.
Max Jones is one of the players looking to play his way into the protection conversation. A former first-round pick, Jones has two pro seasons under his belt. He’s 22-years-old and stuck around for 59 games with the Ducks last season. Jones, a left wing, has played in 89 NHL games over the past two years in total and is scratching the surface. If he breaks through, he’ll find himself protected.
Anaheim has been high on 21-year-old Isac Lundestrom as well. The Swede has potential but needs to show he can score more consistently to earn protection. He spent most of last season with the AHL’s San Diego Gulls (43 games), scoring 21 points. Lundestrom is currently on loan in Sweden where he’s started with five goals and 11 points in his first 12 games, which is an encouraging sign.
The Ducks picked up Sonny Milano, 24, and Danton Heinen, 25, in separate deals at last season’s trade deadline. The pair each played in nine games with Anaheim, and are young with upside. Milano came to the Ducks from the Columbus Blue Jackets, and while he has yet to be a big scorer in the NHL, he’s two seasons removed from a 27-game AHL stint with Cleveland where he picked up 24 points in 27 games.
Expect one of these four to be the seventh protected forward, and for this exercise let’s assume it’s Jones due to his age and NHL experience. This could easily change by season’s end.
Projected to Be Protected From Seattle Expansion Draft
Ryan Getzlaf
Adam Henrique
Jakob Silfverberg
Rickard Rakell
Troy Terry
Sam Steel
Max Jones
Defense
Cam Fowler is the Ducks’ most expensive defenseman but is their best and is under contract through the 2026 season at $6.5 million a year. While that’s a big contract, Anaheim will not expose a 28-year-old defenseman who is productive and in his prime years.
The Ducks may be willing to expose Josh Manson and his $4.1 million contract. The 29-year-old had what looked like a breakout season in 2017-2018 where he picked up 37 points in 80 games, but that apparently was an anomaly. In the two campaigns since, he’s managed a combined total of 27 points and has revealed himself to be an average defenseman.
Manson becomes further expendable with the free agency addition of Kevin Shattenkirk this offseason. A couple of years older than Manson, Shattenkirk is cheaper at $3.9 million and is still a productive defenseman with a longer track record.
Projected to Be Protected From Seattle Expansion Draft
Cam Fowler
Hampus Lindholm
Kevin Shattenkirk
Goalie
John Gibson is the man for the Ducks and will be their number one goalie for the foreseeable future. The most interesting Ducks goalie prospect, Lukas Dostal, is not eligible for the Seattle Expansion Draft, leaving the Kraken with slim pickings from Anaheim’s goaltending options.
Murray does have to expose an eligible goalie for the Seattle Expansion Draft, though. Anthony Stolarz projects to be Gibson’s back-up but is scheduled to be a UFA after this season. The Ducks could re-sign Stolarz and expose him without fear of losing him.
Top Expansion Candidates for the Seattle Expansion Draft
Forwards
Sonny Milano
Danton Heinen
Isac Lundestrom
Defense
Josh Manson
Josh Mahura
Brendan Guhle
Anaheim Ducks players, their contract info, and career stats.
Thoughts
The Kraken have some good talent to choose from the Ducks in the Seattle Expansion Draft. Manson is not an offensive threat, but he was an alternate captain with Anaheim and can provide veteran leadership. His contract also comes in handy, as it will help the Kraken reach the cap floor.
If Ron Francis wants to go younger, Mahura is an interesting player. Mahura, 22, has yet to establish himself as a regular NHLer but was a big-time scorer from the blue line in junior and is coming off an AHL season in San Diego where he scored 21 points in 44 games. He’s less of a sure NHLer than Manson, but Mahura has potential.
Brendan Guhle, 23, is right alongside Mahura as a young, offensive defenseman. Guhle has yet to prove he belongs in the NHL. He’s had looks and is with his second organization after starting with the Buffalo Sabres. The productive AHL seasons are there, and if the Kraken feel they can harvest NHL-level skill, he is worth the pick.
Up front, if Lundestrom is left unprotected he could be an intriguing pick here as well. Again, it may depend on what he shows this coming season.
Side Deal Scenarios
Murray and the Ducks pulled off one of the more scrutinized side deals during the Vegas Expansion Draft. They famously sent defenseman Shea Theodore – who wasn’t eligible to be drafted – to the Golden Knights with the agreement that Vegas would take Clayton Stoner. Theodore, a former Seattle Thunderbird, has since turned out to be one of the top young defensemen in the league.
Did that experience burn Murray? He has no cap room and a couple of high contracts on his books, so he may feel he doesn’t have a choice but to try something like that again.
The San Jose Sharks are coming off their worst season in 15 years. It was only the second time in 22 years that they failed to qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Yet this is still a club that’s just one season removed from playing in the Conference Finals. It is really anyone’s guess as to how the Sharks will fare in the upcoming 2020-21 season.
Are they a team in need of a rebuild, or do they have the potential for a few deep playoff runs in their immediate future? This upcoming campaign should be a big indicator of which direction this salary-cap-strapped team is heading, and the answer should influence its approach to the NHL Expansion Draft next summer.
This offseason the Sharks acquired Devan Dubnyk (G) and Ryan Donato (F) in separate trades with the Minnesota Wild. They also added depth forward Matt Nieto and brought back Sharks legend and former Seattle Thunderbird, Patrick Marleau (F), both on one-year deals via free agency.
Assumptions
The Sharks do not have any pending UFAs that will impact the Expansion Draft after the 2021 season. Both Erik Karlsson (D) and Marc-Edouard Vlasic (D) have no-move clauses (NMC), and we will assume they will not waive those clauses.
Roster Wildcards
The roster is fairly set, so any wildcards will be driven by trades or UFA signings after this article is published.
Protected List
Forwards
The Sharks forward core of Logan Couture, Evander Kane, Timo Meier, and Tomas Hertl are pretty much locks to be protected. We would add 24-year-old, Kevin LeBanc, and 22-year-old prospect, Jonathan Dahlen, to the protected list. Dahlen has yet to play in the NHL but seems to be knocking on the door.
The seventh protected forward spot will come down to Bonney Lake’s own Dylan Gambrell, former Thunderbird, Alexander True, or either Maxim Letunov or newly acquired Ryan Donato.
Here are the cases to be made for protecting each of those players:
Gambrell has the most offensive upside.
True is the youngest of the four and appeared to belong in the NHL when he was called up at the end of last year.
Letunov had two quality development years in the AHL.
Donato has the most NHL experience with 130 games.
Who gets protected will really come down to how these players progress during the 2020-21 season. At this point, we are going to project that Donato is protected based on the fact that he is the only one to have shown that he can contribute in the NHL as an everyday player.
Projected Protected
Logan Couture (Lock)
Timo Meier (Lock)
Thomas Hertl (Lock)
Evander Kane (Lock)
Kevin LeBanc
Jonathan Dahlen
Ryan Donato
Defense
As stated above, Erik Karlsson and Marc-Edouard Vlasic have no-move clauses and will take two of the three protected defense slots. At first glance, you might assume Brent Burns would be the third protected defenseman for the Sharks. After all, Burns has been an offensive juggernaut for the Sharks over the last six seasons. He had 128 points in 152 games over the last two seasons. However, he will be 36 next summer and will have four more years left on his contract that has a cap hit of $8M a year.
Those are all important things to consider if there ends up being another up-and-coming defenseman that would be exposed with the protection of Burns. Assuming that there is no major drop-off in production from the hockey-playing caveman, then Burns should be the third protected defenseman in the Expansion Draft.
Projected Protected
Erik Karlsson (NMC – Lock)
Marc-Edouard Vlasic (NMC – Lock)
Brent Burns
Goalie
Both Dubnyk and Martin Jones are looking for rebound years after somewhat disastrous 2019-20 performances. At this time, we do not see any reason why the Sharks would protect Jones, who has underperformed since signing his six-year deal in 2017. Dubnyk is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2020-21 season, so there is no real benefit to San Jose for protecting him either. The only other goalie candidate to protect is a 22-year-old in their AHL franchise, Josef Korenar.
Projected Protected
Josef Korenar
Top Expansion Candidates for Seattle Kraken
Forwards
Dylan Gambrell
Alexander True
Maxim Letunov
Defense
Radim Simek
Goalie
Martin Jones
Either Gambrell or True would be a storybook scenario given their Pacific Northwest ties, but before the story is written, the Kraken will need to make sure they are everyday NHLers in the league. Both appear to be destined for the top level, and this next season will be a huge indicator on their broader outlook.
Letunov is in the same boat but might spend one more year in the AHL before getting his opportunity. Simek is a serviceable defenseman, should the Kraken determine that they can fill out their forward roster with selections from other teams. If San Jose ends up exposing Burns, and he has a normal season by his standards, the Kraken will have a hard time not picking him.
Side Deal Scenarios
The Sharks are up against the salary cap and have a few big contracts that they might want to shed. The Kraken’s biggest asset is cap space, which could make for a pretty good match. Of the players without a NMC, Martin Jones has the biggest potential to be part of a side deal with Seattle, but it still seems like Jones would need to have a bit of a bounce back year for Seattle to consider picking him. His $5.7M cap hit would be on the high side for a potential back-up goalie, but it might help the Kraken hit the cap floor requirement per the Expansion Draft rules.
When the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft rolls around next year, the Senators won’t be letting any highly valuable assets go for nothing. Besides being one of the NHL’s worst teams last season, Ottawa was also one of the cheapest.
Ottawa’s 62 points were second-worst last season, behind only the Detroit Red Wings, and its $70.516 million in player salaries ranked 27th out of 31 teams, according to Spotrac.
Only in mid-October did the Senators exceed the salary floor of $60.2 million, leaving them with $11.8 million in cap space as of November 14. Unpopular owner Eugene Melnyk probably wouldn’t spend much money in better times either, though. This makes it likely that the Senators will be hovering around the salary floor again next offseason when they have to submit their protection list for the Expansion Draft.
So, which Senators players will be available to the Kraken?
Here’s why Seattle will likely choose a depth player from Ottawa.
Assumptions
Because of their large amount of cap space, the Senators might be willing to acquire another team’s bad contract if it comes with a top prospect and/or high draft pick. Look for these deals to happen around the 2021 trade deadline or offseason, especially if the NHL has to go very long without fans in arenas because of the pandemic.
Those bad contracts will be available for the Kraken to choose no matter what team they belong to, so the question is whether Seattle general manager Ron Francis believes it’s worth taking on any of those pricy risks. If it’s a serviceable player with only a year remaining on his contract, Francis could be enticed with an extra player or Entry Draft pick through a side trade.
Senators Offseason Wildcards
With so much cap space, Ottawa has room to bring in more free agents this offseason. All indications are that the Senators are content with their roster, however, after signing forward Alex Galchenyuk to a one-year, $1.05 million deal late last month.
Even if Melnyk permits a larger payroll, any new contracts will be short term because of revenue uncertainty over COVID-19.
Protected List
Forwards
Brady Tkachuk, LW (Lock) Drake Batherson, RW (Lock) Connor Brown, RW (Lock) Colin White, C Logan Brown, C Evgenii Dadonov, RW Austin Watson, RW
Dadonov, 31, signed a three-year, $15 million free agent contract that’s back-loaded with $6.5 million due in the final year of the deal. So if the former Florida Panther fails to click and falls down the depth chart next season, perhaps the Senators will leave him unprotected.
Defense
Thomas Chabot (Lock) Nikita Zaitsev (Lock) Josh Brown
Acquired in an offseason trade from Florida, the 6-5 and 217-pound Brown is no more than a fifth or sixth defenseman. But being a right-handed shot will help Brown’s stock when the Sens submit their protected list.
Goalie
Matt Murray (Lock)
After being acquired from Pittsburgh and signing a four-year, $25 million contract, Murray would have to have a disastrous first season in Ottawa to be left unprotected. The two-time Stanley Cup champion does have a lot to prove after a disappointing 2019-20 in which he was 20-11-5 with a 2.87 GAA and .899 save percentage.
Top Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft Players – Senators
Forwards
Center Chris Tierney (6-1, 195 pounds) had an unspectacular 11 goals and 26 assists in 71 games last season, but he was Ottawa’s best faceoff man (51.17 percent) and a good penalty killer with four short-handed goals. The six-year veteran with 61 goals, 128 assists and 189 points in 436 games is only 26 and would be a good role-playing, bottom-six forward who could occasionally move up to the second line.
Left winger Nick Paul is a year younger than Tierney and has less NHL experience (112 games, 13 goals, 15 assists, 28 points). But he’s bigger at 6-3 and 219 pounds with good speed. He can also kill penalties and would be a bottom-six forward at best.
For the Senators, the final forward to protect from the Seattle Kraken in the Expansion Draft might come down to deciding between Tierney and Austin Watson. At Expansion Draft time, Watson will have two years and $3 million remaining compared with Tierney’s one year and $3.5 million. Watson is two years younger, less skilled but bigger (6-4, 204 pounds) and plays a more rugged game. As the younger, skilled Sens develop, they’re going to need veteran players such as Watson to protect them.
Fun fact: From 2014-15 to 2017-18 with the Sharks, Tierney scored eight goals and 12 points in 18 games against the Vancouver Canucks. He also notched four assists in four games against the Canucks since he’s been a Senator. So he’s got that going for him if he ends up back in the Pacific Division.
Defense
Seattle’s pickings appear slim among Ottawa blue-liners with Christian Wolanin, 25, and Maxime Lajoie, 22, leading the way.
Wolanin (five goals, 10 assists and 15 points in 43 career NHL games and eight goals, 24 assists and 32 points in 49 AHL games) missed much of 2019-20 to injury. But the 6-2, 185-pound left-hand shot figures to compete for the third pairing next season.
The speedy Lajoie (seven goals, eight assists and 15 points in 62 NHL games) has faded since a quick start to his NHL career in 2018. He’ll likely be back in AHL Belleville, where the left-handed shooting Lajoie notched four goals, 13 assists and 17 points in 48 games last season.
Goalie
After Murray, the Senators have a bunch of question marks on their goaltender depth chart. No. 2 Anders Nilsson, who will be an unrestricted free agent in 2021, is a career backup and not worth considering. Marcus Hogberg and Joey Daccord figure to continue playing in Belleville of the AHL, and Filip Gustavsson is on loan to Sodertalje SK in Sweden.
Unless Hogberg or Daccord emerge with a spectacular season, Gustavsson is the most intriguing option for Seattle. The 2016 second-round pick of the Pittsburgh Penguins was a highly touted prospect who was named the top goalie of the 2018 World Junior Hockey Championships after leading Sweden to a silver medal. He has been disappointing over two-plus seasons in Belleville (29-28, 3.28 GAA, .891 save percentage), but the 22-year-old is off to a nice start in 14 games at Sodertalje (8-5, one shutout, 2.20 GAA, .925 save percentage).
Goalies take a lot longer to develop. Calgary Flames netminder Jacob Markstrom, for example, split time between the AHL and the Florida Panthers at the same age and never became a No. 1 goalie until he was 27 with the Canucks. So if Gustavsson can get back on track, the Kraken might consider taking him as a project for their third goalie.
Side Deal Scenarios
Ottawa has a deep prospect pool (recently ranked seventh by The Athletic), and it added three first-round picks during the 2020 NHL Entry Draft. Unfortunately for Seattle, the Senators’ best prospects will be protected or be exempt from Expansion Draft protection because of a lack of pro experience.
Unless many fringe players have breakout seasons next year, Sens GM Pierre Dorion should have no need to pursue any trades to steer Francis from taking certain players. Dorion does have three 2021 second-round Entry Draft picks, as well as all of his 2022 and 2023 picks, though, should the need arise.
Other Notes
The Senators’ top prospects such as C Josh Norris, LW Alex Formenton and D Erik Brannstrom are exempt from the Seattle Kraken in the Expansion Draft due to lack of North American pro experience.
Jim Wilkie is a longtime Northwest journalist, former NHL editor and NHL Insider writer for ESPN.com, a onetime GSHL All-Star, and SJHA hockey dad. Follow him on Twitter @jimwilkie.
