During the 2017 Expansion Draft, it was slim pickings for the Vegas Golden Knights when it came to the Edmonton Oilers’ player pool, but thankfully for the Seattle Kraken, there’s a little bit more meat on the bone this time around.
The Oilers, with Hart Trophy winners Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, have always boasted a top-heavy roster. But there’s more depth now than there was is 2017, with a few intriguing young players and some possible reclamation projects the Seattle Kraken can choose from in the 2021 Expansion Draft.
Assumptions
We’ll assume the Oilers will re-sign 27-year-old forward Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who is an unrestricted free agent after this upcoming season.
Top prospects Evan Bouchard, Philip Broberg, and Raphael Lavoie are all exempt because they haven’t accrued more than two professional seasons. Same with the Oilers’ recent first-round pick, Dylan Holloway.
Joakim Nygard, 27, and Gaetan Haas, 28, are also exempt.
Protected List
Forwards
Connor McDavid (Lock)
Leon Draisaitl (Lock)
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (Lock, if re-signed)
Kailer Yamamoto
Defensemen
Darnell Nurse
Oscar Klefbom
Ethan Bear
Caleb Jones
Goaltender
Mikko Koskinen
We project the Oilers to go the eight-skater route when it comes to their protection list for the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft. This will allow them to keep promising young defensemen Ethan Bear, 23, and Caleb Jones, 23 away from Seattle.
The wildcard in this group is Oscar Klefbom, who could miss the 2021-22 campaign due to chronic issues with his shoulder. Klefbom, 27, is a productive player when healthy, but he may be put on long-term injured reserve. If that’s the case, Edmonton may not be compelled to protect him.
It’s a situation to closely monitor for Kraken fans. If Klefbom is left off Edmonton’s protected list, 28-year-old blueliner Adam Larsson or 29-year-old Tyson Barrie could take his place if either has a bounce-back season in 2021-22. Both are unrestricted free agents after the season. The Oilers could also protect seven forwards instead and just protecting Bear, Jones, and Nurse.
For now, Yamamoto, 22, holds the inside track for claiming the fourth and final protection spot at forward. However, Jesse Puljujarvi, Zack Kassian, or even Dominik Kahun could claim it with a stellar 2021-22 campaign.
Expansion Draft Candidates
Forward
Jesse Puljujarvi
Dominik Kahun
Zack Kassian
Kyle Turris
Tyler Benson
Kassian is a trendy choice to be the pick from the Oilers in the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft, but we at Sound Of Hockey frankly don’t understand the infatuation.
Yes, he is relatively big — Kassian is listed at 6-foot-3, 211 pounds — he’s developed a reputation as one of the NHL’s best tough guys, and he posted decent advanced metrics last season. But Kassian’s career-best 34-point season in 2019-20 came while playing 76 percent of his 5-on-5 minutes with Connor McDavid. Advanced metrics unsurprisingly indicate Kassian’s impact decreases significantly when he’s not playing with McDavid. Kassian, who is signed through 2024 with an average annual value (AAV) of $3.2 million, also is notorious for taking a great number of penalties.
If Seattle is looking for someone with top-six forward experience, Kassian may be the obvious choice. But there’s no guarantee he’ll be a top-six caliber player without Connor McDavid.
Puljujarvi, 22, is the splashiest choice for the Kraken because, quite simply, young players taken early in the NHL Draft aren’t usually available in an Expansion Draft. The Finnish winger, who was taken No. 4 overall by Edmonton in the 2016 NHL Draft, is 6-foot-4 and skilled but failed to make an impact early in his NHL career. What’s more, he spent the entire last season with Karpat in Liiga, Finland’s top league, after his relationship with the team soured and he publicly wanted to be traded out of Edmonton.
If Seattle is disenchanted with Puljujarvi, either Kahun, 25, or Benson, 22, would be the next best options.
Kahun is already with his fourth NHL franchise, but the German National Team forward has put up over 30 points in each of his two NHL seasons. The 25-year-old is a free agent in 2021-22.
Benson, a former member of the Vancouver Giants of the Western Hockey League, has proven to be a capable playmaker. The Edmonton native finished with 51 assists last year for the American Hockey League’s Bakersfield Condors, but he’s struggled with finishing at the NHL level. Benson is the Oilers’ seventh-ranked prospect, according to The Athletic’s Corey Pronman.
Turris’ best years are behind him, but he’s a decent option if Seattle is seeking a veteran on an affordable contract; Turris signed a two-year deal with Edmonton with an AAV of $1.6 million this offseason.
Defensemen
Adam Larsson
Tyson Barrie
William Lagesson
Larsson and Barrie are known for being lightning rods for teasing on the internet — Larsson because he was the other player in the infamous one-for-one Taylor Hall trade to New Jersey and Barrie because of his underwhelming tour with Toronto last season. But they are both worth mentioning because they’ve been highly productive players in the past.
Lagesson, 24, has not yet fully broken into the NHL, nor has he been overly productive in the AHL, but the Swedish rearguard would be the best option if Seattle is seeking a young defenseman.
Goaltender
Stuart Skinner
Everett Silvertips fans will remember Skinner for tending goal for the Swift Current Broncos in their 2017 WHL Championship series. Skinner, 22, had some prospect pedigree after being selected by Edmonton in the third round of the 2017 NHL Draft, but his stock fell after inconsistent play in his first two professional seasons.
If Skinner puts together a stellar 2021-22 season, he could land on the Kraken’s radar as a goalie prospect to gamble on. But for now, his situation is too blurry.
Potential Side Deals for Seattle Kraken
Perhaps the Oilers will dangle a prospect or a draft pick to coerce Seattle into taking expensive veteran forward James Neal. Neal, 33, and his $5.75 AAV contract expires in 2023. Edmonton, which has the 26th-ranked farm system in the NHL, may not have the firepower to make that happen or may not have the need to dump salary in general — the Oilers have plenty of projected cap space available in 2021-22.
Josh Horton is a freelance writer, former newspaper journalist, and former Western Hockey League writer for the Everett Herald and The Spokesman-Review (Spokane). He is NOT a juggler, nor is he a former professional baseball player. Follow him on Twitter @byjoshhorton.
Previous Sound Of Hockey Expansion Draft Team Previews
One of the important decisions for the immediate, and perhaps the long-standing future of the Seattle Kraken, is what it decides to do at goalie during the Expansion Draft. Sound Of Hockey’s Darren Brown speculated on which goalies the Kraken may be linked to recently. Based on Seattle devoting a great number of front-office hires to assemble a robust analytics team, a statistical approach will almost certainly be considered when choosing any player in the Expansion Draft, including goaltenders. But for the Seattle Kraken, what goalie analytics even exist?
With a deeper breadth of data available, the Kraken’s front office will have a more complete data set than the public. But that doesn’t mean the public can’t take a look at what may be available through an analytical lens.
In a way, goaltenders are akin to starting pitchers in baseball in how they’re evaluated. Some people evaluate goalies and pitchers solely on wins. No matter how many goals a netminder gives up, a team win is all that matters.
But any person that thinks the game with a crumble of analytics will tell you this stat is not even emblematic of a goaltender’s performance. This is a very old-school approach to thinking about sports and especially hockey where there are so many variables that go into the outcome of a game.
The same goes for goals-against average (GAA), which is a slightly more sophisticated stat, but not by much. It’s similar to ERA (earned-run average) for pitchers in baseball, but really, it’s even worse. The goalie isn’t solely responsible for every single goal a team gives up, because not every shot is created equal; even the best NHL goaltenders won’t perform well if they’re facing many high-danger chances every night.
(Say it with us, folks: “Goals Against Average is a Team Stat!”)
Things get slightly more specific with save percentage, which provides a more comprehensive look at a goaltender’s efficacy, but there’s still quite a bit missing. It’s a stat that requires a large sample size to have substantial value and can be misleading because not all saves carry the same degree of difficulty. Also, some teams allow a lot of shots and some teams don’t allow many shots, which really influences percentages especially when dealing with small sample sizes. .
Some stats go beyond the “traditional” metrics that aren’t all that difficult to understand.
“Advanced” Goaltender Stats to Consider:
First, there’s GSAA, which stands for Goals Saved Above Average. This stat takes into account the league’s average save percentage and then applies it to the actual number of shots a goaltender has saved. In theory, it demonstrates how many goals a netminder would save compared to a replacement-level goaltender – for baseball fans, this stat is conceptually similar to the WAR (Wins Above Replacement) stat in baseball. This stat has its flaws, however, because it lacks some key context and assumes every shot a goaltender saves is equal, which we know isn’t accurate, and it benefits goaltenders with the most games played. Rating this stat out per 60 minutes (the length of an NHL game) is the best way to determine how a goalie is performing on a game-to-game basis.
There is also GSAx from the website “Evolving Hockey”, which stands for Goals Saved Above Expected and provides a bit more uniformity and specificity. It draws from Evolving Hockey’s expected goal model, so it takes into account how difficult, in theory, a shot was that a goaltender saved. This stat is also best when rated out per 60 minutes.
dFSv%, a stat also found on Evolving Hockey that stands for “Difference (or delta) in Fenwick Save percentage,” is another good one to use. Fenwick, for those that aren’t aware, is a stat that is essentially a fancier way of saying “unblocked shot.” Evolving Hockey’s expected goal model calculates an expected save percentage and demonstrates the difference.
HDSV%, MDSV%, and LDSV% – which stand for high-danger, medium-danger, and low-danger save percentage, respectively – are also useful stats. They measure exactly what they sound like. High-danger shots have an expected shooting percentage of over nine percent, medium-danger shots have an expected shooting percentage between three and nine percent, and low-danger shots have an expected shooting percentage below three percent.
Quality starts, a stat available by Hockey-Reference.com, count how many times a goalie posts a save percentage in a game that’s above the league average for save percentage. A quality start can also be earned by saving over 88.5 percent of shots in a game with 20 or fewer shots on goal. When a goaltender secures a quality start, their team has about a 75 percent chance of winning, according to HockeyReference.
Quality Starts % (QS%) is also available and is a great barometer into how a specific goalie is performing. A quality start percentage above 53 percent is considered above average, over 60 percent is considered excellent, and under 50 percent is considered below average.
Here’s how many of the goalie targets most connected to Seattle stack up in these metrics.
Maybe somewhat surprisingly, players like Arizona’s Antti Raanta and Adin Hill and Montreal’s Jake Allen rate out favorably, while more well-known goaltenders like Vancouver’s Braden Holtby and Ottawa’s Matt Murray do not.
But unfortunately, goaltender analysis — at least currently — is steps behind the analytical data that we have for players, and it’s not always fair to compare goalies to one another.
The Wild, Wild West of Analytics
The issue isn’t that there aren’t bright people evaluating goaltenders.
There’s just a dearth of public and, more importantly, reliable data to draw from.
“We have to be very, very careful with goaltending analytics,” said Alison Lukan, a prominent hockey analytics writer who currently writes for 1st Ohio Battery, a Columbus Blue Jackets’ site. “It’s probably the weakest part of the game in terms of us understanding it and properly evaluating it.”
The only publicly available data is via the National Hockey League, and sometimes, there’s missing context, especially when it comes to goaltending.
“We have to be very, very careful with goaltending analytics,” said Alison Lukan, a prominent hockey analytics writer who currently writes for 1st Ohio Battery, a Columbus Blue Jackets’ site. “It’s probably the weakest part of the game in terms of us understanding it and properly evaluating it.”
“A lot of the publicly available data is wildly inconsistent when it comes to goaltending,” said Catherine Silverman, a hockey writer who is well-known for her goaltender analysis. “… The save percentages, the high-danger save percentages, the stuff like that, is a little suspect at times.”
A lot of the popular analytics websites, such as Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick, scrape data from the league website, which isn’t as precise as the private data the 31 current NHL teams are using to draw conclusions.
This is highly problematic considering how many metrics hinge on where on the ice a shot on goal was taken and how the shot was created.
“I always tell people that the first thing to know is that the data is going to be a little suspect at times,” Silverman said. “We’re in the infancy of goaltending analytics because it’s really the last position to be delved into from an analytical level at a deep level. It’s still very behind what you get from forwards and defenders.
What’s more, the lion’s share of goaltender analytics doesn’t take into account these key questions: Was the goalie screened? Was the shot off a rebound? Was the goalie moving laterally and what was their depth in net?
“You can still look at that data, flawed or not, to look at an individual goaltender throughout the course of a season,” Silverman said. “See how their numbers are going up and down, see how much they’re fluctuating, see what they’re looking at year-to-year as long as they’re with the same team. You can use it for personal growth and improvement and you can use it for consistency, but it’s hard to use it to compare players because the data coming from each arena isn’t always consistent.”
There are many private companies, such as Clearsite or SportLogic, that can evaluate those aforementioned considerations, but that data is typically only available for the 31 franchises in the league.
What’s Next
Puck and player tracking is expected to roll out any year now, but it’s unclear how much will be made publicly available by the NHL.
That’s the only way to remove the “noise” from many of the goaltending stats people are referencing and compare goalies to each other fairly.
“Until we get standardized puck-tracking, whether it’s through chips in the pucks or technology in all the rinks, goaltending analytics can’t take the step forward that it needs to,” Silverman said. “We truly need that locational data for shots, we need to know who is facing shots that are being blocked, who’s facing them while being screened, who’s facing them from crazy angles.”
Right now, that sort of data is mostly being manually tracked, which is quite arduous and subject to the “eye-test.”
Like any hockey statistic, goaltending analytics are best applied in harmony with live scouting. But for the common hockey fan, these aforementioned metrics can provide a better understanding of how effective goaltenders are through observations we aren’t able to see.
Striking the perfect balance may determine how successful the Kraken are in 2021-22.
Josh Horton is a freelance writer, former newspaper journalist, and former Western Hockey League writer for the Everett Herald and The Spokesman-Review (Spokane). He is NOT a juggler, nor is he a former professional baseball player. Follow him on Twitter @byjoshhorton.
For a team – and a fanbase – that fancies itself as a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, the Toronto Maple Leafs aren’t exactly gushing with the sort of quality depth that will excite the Seattle Kraken in the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft.
At least not yet anyway.
Toronto’s core four of highly talented and highly paid forwards – Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner and William Nylander – eat up 49.7 percent of its 2020-2021 salary cap space, leaving the rest to be spread creatively among the remaining 19 roster players. Defensemen Jake Muzzin, Morgan Rielly, and T.J. Brodie and goaltender Frederik Andersen bite off another $20.625 million, causing Leafs Nation and management a lot of wishful thinking and finger-crossing over the rest of the roster.
Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas has kept kicking the salary cap can down the road to the point where he’s skating a thin line in this COVID-19 flat cap market. This means it will be interesting to see how Kraken GM – and one-time Maple Leaf – Ron Francis can exploit this in the Seattle Expansion Draft.
Toronto didn’t make it past the play-in round in 2020 and was eliminated in the first round of the playoffs three years before that. In the upcoming abbreviated season the Leafs will escape the brutally tough Atlantic Division for the intriguing and perhaps equally competitive, pandemic-created Canadian Division.
Under the superheated local and national spotlight of living up to Toronto’s Cup contender status, any short-sighted moves in 2021 will only give the Kraken better options when they evaluate the Maple Leafs’ list of exposed players.
Assumptions
In addition to his core four, Dubas has filled out his roster with many pending unrestricted free agents up front. As a result, this shrewdly gives him some salary cap flexibility while not presenting great forward options for the Kraken Expansion Draft.
However, Dubas has painted himself into a corner a little. He will have to re-sign one or two of those pending UFAs or acquire another forward or two to meet the NHL’s Expansion Draft requirements of exposing at least “two forwards who are a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played at least 40 NHL games the prior season or played in at least 70 NHL games in the prior two seasons.”
After the seven forwards identified below for protection, only Joey Anderson, Denis Malgin and Adam Brooks are signed beyond this season. None of them appear likely to play 40 games this season. And only Malgin, who played 44 last season, has a reasonable shot at reaching the 70-game, two-season mark. Anderson played 18 NHL games and Brooks played seven last season.
It’s pretty safe to assume the Leafs will make some trades before the midseason deadline, so any new forwards with term left on their contracts could be exposed or push some current players off the preliminary list below. We’ve compiled a protection list with the seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie scenario. But if the Leafs can’t lock up more forwards by draft time, they’ll have to go with the eight skaters and one goalie option that allows them to protect four defensemen.
Offseason Wildcards
Toronto is over the cap limit by more than $1 million as of Dec. 13, 2020, so it has some juggling to do before the season starts. Don’t expect that maneuvering to result in the addition of a significant player, however.
Maple Leafs Protected List
Forwards
Auston Matthews (Lock)
Mitch Marner (Lock)
John Tavares (Lock, NMC)
William Nylander (Lock)
Zach Hyman (Lock)
Alex Kerfoot
Pierre Engvall
Kerfoot and Engvall are on the bubble and could be exposed if Toronto obtains quality players worth protecting or other Leafs surpass them on the depth chart. Kerfoot will have a year and $3.5 million remaining on his contract next offseason. They might take a chance by leaving him exposed and protect someone else.
Defense
Morgan Rielly (Lock)
Jake Muzzin (Lock)
T.J. Brodie
Toronto just signed Brodie to a four-year, $20 million free agent contract, so he’s as good as a lock if he lives up to earning that salary. Otherwise the Leafs could leave him exposed in favor of protecting another defenseman, such as Justin Holl or Travis Dermott. And if the Leafs lose Brodie, it will at least free up some cap space.
Goaltender
Frederik Andersen (UFA)
Andersen, Toronto’s No. 1 goalie, will be an unrestricted free agent after this season. As a result, the Leafs will have a big decision on who will be their top netminder in 2021-22. Do they re-sign Andersen or use the $5 million in cap space to find a replacement via trade or free agency?
The pressure is on Andersen, 31, to have a strong contract year after an inconsistent postseason and the worst regular season numbers of his seven years in the NHL. He’s better than his 2.85 GAA and .909 save percentage showed, but his regular season 5-on-5 save percentage fell to .914 after seasons of .927, .924 and .928. We’re guessing Toronto will re-sign the big Dane and protect him.
Kraken Expansion Draft Players
Forwards
Joey Anderson
Adam Brooks
Denis Malgin
Jimmy Vesey (UFA)
Wayne Simmonds (UFA)
Anderson, Brooks and Malgin are depth players who will be fighting for roster spots this season. Whomever doesn’t make the cut will end up in the purgatory of an expanded roster taxi squad or dealing with whatever happens with the AHL Toronto Marlies’ schedule.
Anderson, 22, Brooks, 24, and Malgin, 23, have all performed well in the minors, so they’re at pivotal career moments to prove themselves. Only Malgin has spent more time recently in the NHL than the AHL. The native of Switzerland will also be the sharpest when training camp starts after being on loan to Swiss club Lausanne HC where he has notched eight goals and 12 points in 12 games this season.
Vesey and Simmonds were signed this past offseason to low-cost free agent contracts and are listed here in case they re-sign before the draft.
Simmonds is 32 and slowing down since he was a 50- to 60-point man in his peak years. But he always seems to be in trade rumors and was dealt before the past two deadlines. He could be a tough, grinding veteran option who might later be trade bait if the Kraken aren’t in playoff contention in Year 1.
Vesey, 27, is out to prove he can live up to the hype he had when he left Harvard. And the Kraken will be watching how he plays with his head ablaze.
If the aforementioned eligibility crunch drops Engvall, 24, onto the unprotected list, the 6-5 and 214-pound Swede would be an attractive option for the Kraken. He has speed, size and ability to play special teams that could see him blossom with increased opportunities.
Defense
Travis Dermott
Justin Holl
Zach Bogosian (UFA)
Here’s where the Kraken have some decent choices. Holl, 28, has been entrusted with more ice time and shut-down duties, but Dermott, 23, is more mobile and has better offensive potential.
Travis Dermott and Justin Holl had a night to remember during a 2018 game against the Islanders. Both scored their first NHL goals with their dads in the stands. #LeafsForeverpic.twitter.com/j4IV6ZO3NU
Fresh off helping the Tampa Bay Lightning win a Stanley Cup, Bogosian showed he still has more left in the tank. The 30-year-old could be an option if the Leafs re-sign him and feel the need to work a side deal with the Kraken.
Goalie
Jack Campbell
Campbell, the 11th overall pick in the 2010 entry draft, will have a reasonable $1.65 million and one year left on his contract before the Kraken Expansion Draft. This season’s compressed schedule should give Campbell more games to show whether he can push to be a No. 1 goalie.
Side Deal Scenarios
Dubas might want to steer Francis away from Holl and/or Dermott if they have good seasons and become important parts of the Leafs blue line in the team’s long and arduous chase for their first Stanley Cup since 1967.
If that plays out, Francis could turn his attention to one of those pending UFA veterans such as Simmonds, Vesey or Bogosian. To make this happen, the Leafs still have their first, second, fourth, fifth and sixth 2021 entry draft picks. Remember, Toronto traded its 2020 first-round pick to rid itself of former Seattle Thunderbird Patrick Marleau’s contract.
Other Notes
At least the options for the Kraken appear better than 2017 when the Vegas Golden Knights were building their inaugural lineup. Vegas did as well as could be hoped with what the rebuilding Leafs, having just made the playoffs for the first time in four years, left unprotected.
After a strong AHL season, forward Brendan Leipsic was a bottom-six energy guy who has since bounced from the Golden Knights to the Vancouver Canucks, Los Angeles Kings and Washington Capitals before he texted himself out of the league earlier this year.
Previous Sound of Hockey Expansion Draft team previews
Jim Wilkie is a longtime Northwest journalist, former NHL editor and NHL Insider writer for ESPN.com, a onetime GSHL All-Star, and SJHA hockey dad. Follow him on Twitter @jimwilkie.
There have been a lot of high expectations of the Nashville Predators since they made their first Stanley Cup Final in 2017. Unfortunately, the team has struggled to advance past the second round of playoffs over the last three seasons. Although the team had led into the 2019-20 season in “win now” mode, the season turned into a significant step back. In that season, they had the lowest point percentage (56%) compared to the previous six seasons, and they failed to make it out of the qualifying round in the playoffs when they lost to the Arizona Coyotes.
The Predators did not change their roster too much during the offseason, implying that they still believe in their core group of players to hopefully get them back to the Stanley Cup Final. During the offseason, the Predators did make one trade, acquiring 22-year-old forward Luke Kunin from the Minnesota Wild for 32-year-old veteran Nick Bonino. The only other significant roster change this offseason was losing forward Craig Smith via Free Agency.
Assumptions
There are no significant pending free agents to extend into next season. Career Predator, Pekka Rinne, is on the last year of his contract but at 38 years old 2019-20 was his worst season in the NHL so an extension seems unlikely.
Nashville Roster Wildcards
Nashville is in a good position when it comes to salary cap compliance, but they do have a few big, long-term contracts in Ryan Johansen at $8M/year through 2024-25 and Matt Duchene at $8M/year through 2025-26. Considering their current output, those two contracts look fine right now, but both of those players will be over 30 at the tail end of their contracts when their salaries might seem expensive for a downturn in expected output for their age.
Nashville could approach the Expansion Draft as an opportunity to shed one of those contracts by exposing one of them in the Expansion Draft. Seattle will have a very hard time not selecting Johansen or Duchene if left exposed due to their immediate contributions. For now, we will project them as protected.
Predators Protected List
For the 2017 Expansion Draft, Nashville protected four forwards, four defensemen, and one goalie (4-4-1) as opposed to the seven forwards, three defensemen, and one goalie (7-3-1) option that was much more common.
They protected defensemen Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi, and PK Subban. Since then, Subban was traded to the New Jersey Devils and 22-year-old Dante Fabbro is now emerging as the future of the blueline in Nashville. It is possible that Nashville protects Ekholm, Ellis, Josi and Fabbro, if they stick with the 4-4-1 option. But we think that is unlikely because they have more than four promising forwards that they’ll want to protect, so we are predicting that they will go with the 7-3-1 approach.
Forwards:
The only pure lock we see at forward is Filip Forsberg. Duchene & Johansen are pretty close to locks as well, but like we mentioned above, they each carry a heavy annual salary ($8M/each) at a time where salary cap space is hard to come by. It would require a decent drop-off in production from either of those guys to imagine they could be exposed.
After those three, Nashville has a productive group of forwards in Victor Arvidsson, Calle Jarnkrok, Rocco Grimaldi, and Colton Sissons. Our estimate is that the Preds protect only two of these four to make sure they also protect some of the younger, up-and-coming players listed below. Arvidsson is top of that list, but after that, it is probably a coin flip between Grimaldi and Jarnkrok. As it stands today, Sound Of Hockey would protect Jarnkrok, but the final decision will come down to how these guys play during the upcoming season.
To round out the forwards, the Predators will probably protect two of their sub-23-year-old players that are expansion eligible. Newly acquired Kunin feels like a safe bet to be protected, and we would add the young Russian playmaker, Yakov Trenin to the list as well.
Projected Protected:
Filip Forsberg (Lock)
Matt Duchene (Close to a Lock)
Ryan Johansen (Close to a Lock)
Victor Arvidsson
Calle Jarnkrok (or Rocco Grimaldi)
Luke Kunin
Yakov Trenin
Defense:
Defense is much more straight forward with Josi and Ellis being locks and the younger Fabbro the probable last one protected over an older Ekholm.
Projected Protected:
Roman Josi (Lock)
Ryan Ellis (Lock)
Dante Fabbro (Probable)
Goalie:
The goalie situation looks straight forward as well. Juuse Saros and Pekka Rinne shared the net last year with roughly a 50% split of games. Rinne is 38 and will probably serve as the back-up to the much younger Saros (25) this coming season. Meanwhile, a 23-year-old Connor Ingram will spend another season in the minors.
It is theoretically possible that Nashville protects Connor Ingram and exposes Juuse Saros since Nashville’s future goalie is Iaroslav Askarov, but he will not be available for at least two seasons as he completes his contractual obligations in Russia.
Projected Protected:
Juuse Saros
Nashville Expansion Draft Candidates
Forwards
Rocco Grimaldi
Colton Sissons
Anthony Richard
Rem Pitlick
Tanner Jeannot
Defense
Mattias Ekholm
Frederic Allard
Goalie
Connor Ingram
Seattle will have decent options at all posititons in Nashville. Jarnkrok/Grimaldi/Sissons can probably step right into a top-six role on an expansion team while Richard/Pitlick/Jeannot might be picks for the future and frankly might not pan out. Ekholm can step right into a top-four defense role while Allard might be a bet on the future. Connor Ingram at 23 would be a good option to be the Kraken’s back-up goalie in year one with a projection to be penciled in as the starting netminder in year two or three.
Nashville Side Deal Scenarios
At this point, any side deal with Nashville seems possible. They are facing some exposure of some decent players and with that exposure comes opportunity. There could be a scenario where Nashville offers a draft pick in compensation for Seattle not selecting Grimaldi or Ekholm.
Of all the teams we’ve reviewed at Sound Of Hockey thus far, the Winnipeg Jets may present the best assortment of NHL-ready players for the Seattle Kraken in the 2021 Expansion Draft.
But who knows what might change between then and now?
A promising outlook for the Jets to start the 2019-20 season culminated with a loss to Calgary in the play-in round in the NHL’s Edmonton playoff bubble and a puzzling journey along the way.
Despite Connor Hellebuyck winning the Vezina Trophy this season, poor play in front of him and a rash of injuries led the Jets to a ninth-place finish in the Western Conference by point percentage. In the end, Winnipeg was dismissed in the play-in round, a quick and disappointing ousting.
Through it all, Winnipeg still boasts an impressive core of forwards to choose from for Seattle, as well as a couple of intriguing young defensemen.
Assumptions
Winnipeg almost certainly will protect seven forwards, three defensemen, and one goalie from the Seattle Expansion Draft.
Forward Adam Lowry is also an unrestricted free agent in 2021 and is a prime candidate to be protected if he’s resigned.
Jack Roslovic is currently a restricted free agent and has yet to ink a deal, but he was being shopped in October, according to Mike McIntrye of the Winnipeg News, and it’s unclear where the forward will be playing at the current moment. But for now, we’ll assume the Jets strike a resolution with Roslovic.
Andrew Copp is also reaching restricted free agency soon, in 2021-2022, and we expect him to resign. The same goes for defenseman Neal Pionk.
Offseason Wildcards
Patrik Laine becomes a restricted free agent, but trade rumors have swirled around the polarizing Finnish forward for a few years. If Laine is ever shipped away from Winnipeg, it could greatly impact the general course of the franchise.
Protected List
Winnipeg’s protected list has plenty of surefire locks, starting with a trio of talented forwards in Blake Wheeler — who also has a no-movement clause — Kyle Connor, and Mark Scheifele. If Laine inks a new deal with the Jets, he will be protected as well.
Jets Protected List
Forwards
Mark Scheifele (lock)
Blake Wheeler (lock, NMC)
Kyle Connor (lock)
Patrik Laine (lock, if re-signed)
Nikolaj Ehlers (lock)
Jack Roslovic (if re-signed)
Andrew Copp (if re-signed)
What forwards are available will depend on what Winnipeg does with the aforementioned situations with Lowry, Copp, and Roslovic.
Lowry, Winnipeg’s third-line center, is a good candidate for selection if he’s left unprotected. The 27-year-old two-way center plays a premium position and adds grit and toughness.
Lowry’s linemates, Copp and Roslovic, are also trendy picks to be selected by Seattle if unprotected. Copp, 26, is lauded for his defensive abilities and has posted encouraging Corsi and Fenwick numbers the past three seasons.
Roslovic, 23, is chock-full of offensive upside, but his reported tenuous relationship with the franchise has not been resolved — yet.
The odd-man out of that aforementioned trio is a good candidate for selection.
Wingers Jansen Harkens, 23, and Mason Appleton, 24, are young options that Seattle may consider as well.
Defensemen
Joshua Morrissey (lock)
Dylan DeMelo (lock)
Neal Pionk (lock)
Sami Niku, 24, was an intriguing option for protection, and was projected to be by Sportnest in their initial list. But that was before the Jets inked 27-year-old Dylan DeMelo to a four-year extension with an annual average value of $3 million.
For now, it’s hard to see them parting with a relatively young trio of Morrissey, 25, Pionk, 25, and DeMelo, with the caveat that Pionk is re-signed.
Goalie
Connor Hellebuyck (lock)
It would take quite the downfall for Hellebuyck, the 2020 Vezina winner, to avoid protection.
Top Expansion Draft Players
Forwards:
Adam Lowry
Mason Appleton
Jansen Harkens
Defensemen:
Sami Niku
Tucker Poolman
Logan Stanley
Overall Thoughts
Lowry would be a mighty fine option for the Seattle Kraken, considering how difficult it is to find capable centers. He is an unrestricted free agent in 2021, but Seattle can take him if they agree to terms with Lowry during the 48-hour negotiation window.
Roslovic would be the most attention-grabbing of the options above, but with his youth and offensive upside, the Jets may not leave that option open for Seattle.
Niku’s fourth professional season will be one to keep an eye on for Kraken fans. The Finnish rearguard was ranked the No. 4 prospect in the Jets organization by Corey Pronman of The Athletic in 2018 after a 54-point season with the Manitoba Moose of the American Hockey League in 2017-18.
Since then, Niku hasn’t been able to break through to the NHL and a lot of his prospect sheen has worn off after an injury-riddled 2019-20 campaign. Niku’s waiver exemption is gone for the 2020-21 season, meaning Winnipeg can’t freely option him to the minors without him being exposed to the other 30 teams. He should get a chance to play in the NHL this season.
A lottery-ticket-type option would be Logan Stanley, who is a “divisive player in the scouting community,” according to Pronman. The enormous 6-foot-7, 231-pound blueliner has 32 points in 117 games in the AHL spanning over two seasons thus far and was a first-round pick — No. 16 overall — out of the Ontario Hockey League in 2016.
Side Deal Scenarios
Bryan Little, who has dealt with chronic concussions ever since taking a slapshot from Ehlers to the head at the start of the 2019-2020 season, is signed through 2024 with an annual cap hit of just over $5.2 million. And with plenty of outstanding contract situations to address and $30 million of projected cap space available entering the 2021 offseason, the Jets will need to make some tough decisions.
Would attaching a prospect and/or high draft pick to Little’s albatross contract compel Seattle to take it on? If it was a Shea Theodore-caliber prospect, perhaps someone like Ville Heinola, Dylan Samberg, Kristian Vesalainen or David Gustafsson, then Seattle general manager Ron Francis probably would probably listen.
Regardless of what happens with Little, there are too many quality players for Cheveldayoff to protect. So one could certainly imagine a scenario in which Winnipeg throws something at Seattle to get them to leave certain players alone in the Expansion Draft.
This week, the Sound Of Hockey Podcast goes deep into the world of the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft.
As you may have seen on soundofhockey.com, John, Andy, and Darren (with help from Josh and Jim) have been taking deep dives into NHL teams to try to understand which players each one may expose in the 2021 Expansion Draft. On the podcast, the guys have a hearty discussion about the teams covered so far and whether or not some of the bigger names out there may actually be feasible for the Kraken in their Expansion Draft. There are definitely some interesting nuggets, and a fair dose of #Minnutiae.
Also on this week’s episode, the guys do a Mailbag segment to answer listener questions.
They then move onto You Don’t See That Every Day (view the clips they discuss hereand here), Weekly One-Timers, and finally Tweets of the Week.
