Over the years we have created a Northwest-centric rooting guide for the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. In prior seasons we would breakdown all the teams with players that had ties to the area, like if they were born or raised in the Northwest or even if they played part of their junior career in the region. This year is different though. We have a team and a legitimate rooting interest for other NHL teams to do… well… poorly.
With the Seattle Kraken fan bias, I offer you up the official Kraken fans’ rooting guide for the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs. The rankings are listed from teams we are rooting against (No. 16) to the teams we are rooting to win the Stanley Cup (No. 1).
16. Nashville Predators
Reasons to root against them: As much as it pains me to say, the Predators are a team we Kraken fans will want to lose in the first round. The Kraken traded away Jeremy Lauzon to Nashville for their second-round draft pick for the upcoming 2022 NHL Entry Draft. If they go out in the first round, that draft pick will become the 49th overall draft pick. But if the Preds go on and win the Stanley Cup, it becomes the 64th pick overall. Shea Weber, Mike Cammalleri, and Roope Hintz were all selected 49th overall.
Reasons to root for them: Nashville is a fun city to follow in the playoffs. Their run in 2017 was one of the most exciting playoff runs in recent memory. Smashing cars, a packed Broadway, and Catfish Jake could all make a cameo in a Nashville playoff run.
15. Toronto Maple Leafs
Reasons to root against them: Like the reason we are rooting against Nashville, the Kraken acquired three draft picks from the Leafs at the trade deadline when they sent the first Seattle Kraken captain, Mark Giordano, and Colin Blackwell to Toronto. The Kraken own the Leafs’ second-round draft pick in the upcoming 2022 NHL Entry Draft. A first-round exit could mean that pick becomes as low as 53rd versus 64th in the case they win the Stanley Cup. The other two picks are for 2023 (second round) and 2024 (third round).
Reasons to root for them: Giordano was a great player for the Kraken, and he is your classic “old guy without a Cup.” To see former Kraken players make a deep playoff run sounds kind of fun.
14. Florida Panthers
Reasons to root against them: Calgary traded a second-round pick that they acquired from Florida to Seattle in the Calle Jarnkrok trade. Even if Florida were to lose in the first round, the lowest that pick would be is 56 overall.
Reasons to root for them: If the Panthers go on a run, maybe we can see it rain rats in South Florida.
13. Calgary Flames
Reasons to root against them: In the same Jarnkrok trade, the Flames also traded their fourth-round draft pick to Seattle. Fourth-round picks are a little more hit and miss compared to a second-round pick, but still the earlier Calgary loses the better the pick.
Reasons to root for them: While an earlier exit means a better pick, the opposite is also true. The better the Flames do, the deeper they will select, including for their first-round draft pick. So it might be worth it to see them succeed, knowing that their draft position will be worse off for it. Plus, we really liked Jarnkrok and would love to see him succeed.
12. Washington Capitals
Reasons to root against them: Closing out the 2022 NHL Trade Deadline deals, the Kraken traded Marcus Johansson for a fourth-round draft pick to the Capitals. An early exit for the Caps will mean that pick gets better for the Kraken.
Reasons to root for them: It is very easy to root for Mt. Vernon-born and Seattle Junior alum TJ Oshie in the playoffs. Heck, if the Caps win the Cup, hopefully he considers bringing it to the Puget Sound instead of Warroad this time.
11. Carolina Hurricanes
Reasons to root against them: It really comes down to how they treated John Forslund. Is this a good reason to actively root against a franchise? We don’t know, but we don’t care… Down with the Canes.
Reasons to root for them: Well, the team is darn fun for a bunch of jerks. Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, and friend of the pod, Seth Jarvis are exciting players to watch, and the thought of a potential Freddie Andersen facing off against the Toronto Maple Leafs sounds compelling to us.
10. St. Louis Blues
Reasons to root against them: There’s no real reason to root against the Blues other than they have won a Stanley Cup recently, and they were not very nice to us Kraken fans when they visited Climate Pledge Arena in January.
Reasons to root for them: Vladimir Tarasenko seems like a very likable guy, and he is having a terrific season for the Blues. We would also like to see what Ryan O’Reilly could come up with if he wins another cup.
9. Pittsburgh Penguins
Reasons to root against them: I am sure there are a few Sidney Crosby haters still out there, but unless you are from the DC Metro or the western Pennsylvania area, there is not a whole lot to hate in Pittsburgh these days.
Reasons to root for them: It would be fun to see future Seattle Kraken player Bryan Rust win a Cup*. Just think what that will do for Seattle’s locker room next year.
* speculative
8. New York Rangers
Reasons to root against them: I really hate when the narrative is that the NHL wants the big market teams to make the Stanley Cup Final. I simply do not want to hear that blabber so an early exit would put that commentary to bed in a heartbeat.
Reasons to root for them: “The NHL would love to see the Rangers in the Stanley Cup Final.”
7. Minnesota Wild
Reasons to root against them: Just think how much Minn-utiae we would hear on the Sound Of Hockey Podcast from @DarrenFunBrown.
Reasons to root for them: They are fun, exciting, and I am pretty sure there is not a more likeable player in the league than Marc-Andre Fleury. Would be fun to see him hoist the Cup one more time, regardless of how much he ends up playing.
6. Edmonton Oilers
Reasons to root against them: For the chaos. An early exit will produce so many bad takes on what is “wrong with the Edmonton Oilers” (Exhibit A, B, and C) that it will provide hours of comedy, and who knows, maybe Connor McDavid will demand a trade. Plus, we aren’t huge Evander Kane fans.
Reasons to root for them: McDavid is still one of the most exciting players in the game, and it seems like we could get an Oilers-Flames conference semi-final matchup that would be entertaining to say the least.
5. Los Angeles Kings
Reasons to root against them: They are a Kraken division rival and are primed to be a powerhouse in the next couple years.
Reasons to root for them: They are a Kraken division rival and are primed to be a powerhouse in the next couple years. Any success in the playoffs this year will push their 2022 draft picks down the selection order.
4. Boston Bruins
Reasons to root against them: I think the city of Boston has won enough over the last 20 years don’t you think?
Reasons to root for them: The Bruins’ first-round draft pick this year belongs to the Anaheim Ducks, so much like the Kraken second-round picks, the better the Bruins do, the later the pick. If the Bruins do win the Cup, their first-round draft pick that now belongs to the Ducks will be the last selection in the first round.
3. Dallas Stars
Reasons to root against them: Is the fact that they play a lot of metal in the arena a good enough reason to root against them? OK, we gotta come clean here, we could not come up with a decent reason to root against them.
Reasons to root for them: They are playing Calgary in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and they have an “old man without a Cup” in Joe Pavelski.
2. Colorado Avalanche
Reasons to root against them: Can we just assume that Nazem Kadri will do some predatorial hit on somebody in the playoffs that will make him a heel to hockey fans outside of Colorado (Exhibits A, B, and C)?
Reasons to root for them: Seeing a fully operational lineup with healthy Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen sounds like must-watch hockey.
1. Tampa Bay Lightning
Reasons to root against them: They have won the last two Stanley Cups.
Reasons to root for them: They play the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round.
We hope this helps guide your rooting interests throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and if you have a different take on why or why not root for a team, please leave a note in the comments section of this post.
We have been seeing some eye-popping goal totals in games across the NHL, so we thought it would be a good time to dig into the numbers to investigate if there has been a significant increase in goal scoring across the NHL.
Average goals scored by game
As you can see above, scoring is up to 6.30 goals per game compared to 5.9 last year. There could be several reasons for this increase.
Seattle: Adding a 32nd franchise to the league does dilute the talent across the league, which creates more mistakes and more scoring. It is pretty challenging to show the impact, but we need to acknowledge this could be a factor.
COVID: Last season and a good part of this season were disrupted by COVID. It impacted team schedules, practice days, and personnel decisions, and although players and coaches won’t typically admit it, this had to have taken a toll on teams on the ice.
Youth Movement: There are several pundits covering the league that have suggested that the next generation of goal scorers is leaving its mark on the league. Debunked.
Based on the chart above, there is not a strong connection of youth scoring and the increase on scoring across the league. Players that are 24 or younger only account for 21 percent of the goals scored across the league this year compared to 26 percent of goals last year.
Empty-Net Goals: Over the last 10 seasons, the trend is for coaches to pull goalies earlier and earlier to give themselves a chance to win. This is creating more opportunity for empty-net goals.
…And while we are here, we might as well show this chart of the number of empty-net goals against by team.
Ouch. This should be no surprise to Kraken fans who saw enough empty-net goals against to last a lifetime.
Scoring for and against by NHL team
Here is how scoring breaks down by team and how it has changed from last season.
Florida had the biggest increase in scoring year over year and is currently leading the league in average goals scored per game. If the Dallas Stars make the playoffs, they will have the lowest-scoring team in the postseason, though they are just .01 goals per game behind the Los Angeles Kings in this metric.
Conversely, this is how the scoring sizes up for goals against.
Of the NHL Stanley Cup playoff teams, the Toronto Maple Leafs are allowing the most goals per game in the league, and it will certainly be something to keep an eye on when the playoffs start next week.
Goal differential
Goal scoring is great, but are the games still competitive? No one wants to see blowouts. To get a better idea of the competitiveness of games, we can look at the average margin of victory.
On the surface, the games appear to be getting less competitive. However, when you account for the .06 increase in empty-net goals scored per game year over year, the average margin of victory would be 2.23.
Scoring outlook
Will this trend continue?
Here is one last chart that shows you the distribution of players’ goal scoring by age.
Scoring is up across the league, but it would be a stretch to say that we are entering a new boom of scoring in the league, especially considering the top 10 goal scorers are very familiar faces. Additionally, it would be hard to identify the next generation of players that will backfill guys like Auston Matthews, Leon Draisaitl, and Connor McDavid.
With the NHL trade deadline just four weeks away, we thought it would be a good time to look at previous trade deadlines to help prepare on what to expect over the coming month. This will be focused on the league as a whole and not necessarily on how the Kraken might approach the deadline, but don’t worry, we will write about what to expect from the Kraken in the coming weeks as well.
Ramping up to the trade deadline
So far, the ramp has been slow compared to past years, even with the two trades made in the last week. There typically aren’t that many done at this stage in the season anyway, but it’s worth noting that we’re lagging a little.
In the past five seasons, roughly 80 percent of the trades during this four-week window have occurred in the final week before the deadline. The lesson here is to try to exhibit patience if Seattle has still not traded anyone headed into the final week.
Here is how the totals look by season.
It is interesting to look at the drop last season from the prior season. This could be driven my salary cap constraints adding to the difficulty of getting deals done and also the challenges of getting players into and out of Canada. We will have to monitor the volume of trades this year to see if that drop in 2020-21 is the start of a trend or just a blip on the radar.
Let’s make a deal
Every team has a different set of needs and assets around the trade deadline that varies from season to season, so using historical data to predict a team’s future behavior is somewhat futile. Even so, we thought it was still worth looking at the quantity of trades each team has done around the trade deadline over the last five years.
One thing that was interesting is that there were four teams that did not make a trade prior to the deadline last year: Arizona, Dallas, Minnesota, and St. Louis. In 2019-20, all teams made at least one trade. Again, the flat cap situation facing all teams could be a contributor here.
Trade deadline asset mix
At a high level, there are only two assets a team can trade: draft picks and players. Here is how that has broken down over the last five seasons.
There is a bit of nuance to the player assets, as some could be NHLers or prospects (AHL/CHL), and some deals could just be for signing rights. Signing rights deals are done for players that might have been drafted in years prior but for various reasons might not have signed their standard NHL entry deal. These would include drafted players that are still playing in college, for example.
Here is how the player assets breakdown.
Breakdown of traded draft picks
For Seattle Kraken fans, something to keep an eye on is the draft picks that will be trading hands, specifically what draft pick assets could be traded to Seattle. Here is a look at all the draft picks that changed hands over the last five seasons.
The important piece of information here is that it is rare to trade a first-round draft pick during the trade deadline. If you were hoping Mark Giordano would snag a first-round pick, it is certainly possible but could be a challenge as teams seem less willing to part with their top picks.
As a team that clearly will not be making the playoffs this year, the Seattle Kraken have several player assets that could be moved in the next four weeks. Our hope is sharing these historical trade deadline numbers gives you context and a different perspective on evaluating trades as we march toward the trade deadline.
If you have an questions, takes, or predictions, leave them in the comments section.
With the All-Star break upon us, we thought it would be a good time to check in on NHL attendance numbers across the league.
There are a few preconditions we need to call out before we start digging in.
The 2020-21 NHL season started with no fans, as it began in the middle of the pandemic and before vaccines were readily available. For that reason, we will be comparing the 2021-22 NHL attendance numbers to 2019-20 games.
In late December, 2021, the provincial governments in Canada put restrictions on large gatherings, and this included NHL games. The league also postponed several Canadian games to get through this Omicron wave. Games in Canada would eventually start up again with limited to no capacity, depending on the location. We have excluded limited-capacity games in certain visuals to illustrate a better comparable.
Average NHL Attendance by Season
The drop from 17,157 in 2019-20 to 15,780 in 2021-22 should not be surprising, as the pandemic is still surely impacting the willingness of fans to attend sporting events. We should also point out that the 15,780 includes reduced attendance figures from Canadian games in January.
Here is a look at a game-by-game moving average:
You can see the impact of the reduced capacity games over the last month with the drop in the most recent 50 games.
Here is how it looks with excluding the reduced capacity games.
Even with the reduced capacity games excluded from the data, the NHL attendance numbers are still off from 2019-20. This is mostly driven from the Omicron variant raging through North America and giving many fans pause.
Team-by-team changes
The one bright spot in the team-by-team attendance figures is the New York Islanders. They opened UBS Arena this season, and the impact to their attendance is significant with a 36 percent boost compared to the 2019-20 season. In 2019-20 the Islanders split time between Barclays Center and NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, both of which had limited capacity and a less than ideal fan experience.
On the other side of the equation, the Sabres are down 50 percent compared to the 2019-20 season. There are plenty of reasons for the drop: team performance, the Jack Eichel situation, and the challenges for fans to cross the Canadian/US border for hockey fans living near Buffalo but in Canada.
Anaheim and San Jose are outperforming their 2019-20 performance and preseason expectation on the ice, but the fans are not turning out. It is common when teams fail to make the playoffs in multiple seasons that it takes a few seasons for fans to start filling up arenas again.
Here is a look at teams by game number of the season.
Outlook
Even with some encouraging news surfacing around COVID-19 case data, it is unrealistic to expect the numbers to turn around this season while the pandemic is still a thing. Best case scenario is that the league can start the Stanley Cup playoffs with full capacity in every building.
With all the coverage and attention we are giving the Seattle Kraken these days, it is hard to believe there are other teams that play hockey in the NHL. To shed a little bit of light on the other 31 teams in the league, here are five non-Kraken NHL storylines that we are keeping an eye on for the 2021-22 NHL season.
2019 NHL Entry Draft class
The 2019 NHL Entry Draft class was loaded with talent and storylines. Some of the players have already been in the NHL for a while, but this is the year we can expect the 2019 draft class to make their presence felt. Jack Hughes (NJD) and Kaapo Kakko (NYR) have been playing in the NHL since they were drafted, but expect them to take a major step forward and showcase why they were drafted first and second overall.
The US National Team Development Program (USNTDP) had one of its biggest drafts in 2019 with eight players selected in the first round. Trevor Zegras (ANA), Cole Caufield (MON), and Spencer Knight (FLA) played limited NHL games last season and are a few of the preseason favorites for the Calder Trophy this season. All three of them are exciting to watch and even if they do not log a lot of minutes, they could show off some of their potential.
In addition to those three, keep an eye out for Alex Turcotte (LAK), Cam York (PHI), and Matthew Boldy (MIN). Those three might not start the season with their respective NHL clubs, but they are on the edge of breaking into the NHL.
There are also two Europeans from that draft class that are expected to be regular contributors to their respective teams this NHL season. There are huge expectations for Moritz Seider (DET) and Vasily Podkolzin (VAN) and both are expected to step in and contribute right away. The two played professional hockey in Europe and should have an easier time adjusting to pro hockey in North America.
We should also keep an eye on Alex Newhook (COL) who could center the third line on a very talented Colorado Avalanche team. He is exciting to watch and is my personal sleeper Calder Trophy candidate.
The Colorado goalie situation
It should be no surprise to Seattle hockey fans that the Colorado Avalanche lost their Vezina finalist goalie, Philipp Grubauer, via free agency to the Kraken this offseason. Enter Darcy Kuemper who was acquired from the Arizona Coyotes this offseason to fill the void left by Grubauer’s departure. Kuemper is a great goalie when healthy but has missed several games due to injury each of the last three years. If he goes down for any significant time, this could be an issue for the Colorado Avalanche who are a near consensus to win the Stanley Cup this year.
Pain for Shane
Shane Wright is the consensus first overall pick in the 2022 NHL Entry Draft, and a couple teams have signaled they are going to tank this season to get a crack at him in the draft. Finishing in last place will not guarantee a team the first pick overall, but it will give them the best odds in the NHL Draft Lottery. Even for teams that don’t win the lottery, Ivan Miroshnichenko or Brad Lambert would not be bad consolation prizes.
The tank strategy seems to be in play in Arizona and Buffalo. Neither team added players of value this offseason and both teams got significantly worse in net. Buffalo is relying on the goalie trio of Craig Anderson, Aaron Dell, and Dustin Tokarski. Meanwhile, Arizona is going with the tandem of Carter Hutton and Karel Vejmelka. These teams are expected to be horrible.
What teams take a step back?
Some of the best teams in the past decade are due for a decline. The core players of the Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals have been aging for a while without a lot of young reinforcements waiting in the wings.
In Pittsburgh, Sidney Crosby will be missing a few games to start the season, while Evgeni Malkin will miss a multiple months. Even when those guys are healthy, both are on the downward sides of their careers. Malkin and Kris Letang are also on the last year of their contracts and could be moved before the trade deadline to start the rebuild process in Pittsburgh.
The Capitals are facing a similar fate. The top-two goal scorers from last season, Alex Ovechkin and TJ Oshie are 36 and 34 respectively. Both continue to play well but Father Time will eventually catch up with them. They do have two young and promising prospects in Connor McMichael and Hendrix Lapierre, but both need another year or two to make a real impact on the NHL team.
Chicago Blackhawks
As other teams step back, others will step up. The Chicago Blackhawks are primed to be one of those teams. The Blackhawks have not advanced beyond the first round in the Stanley Cup Playoffs since they won the Stanley Cup in 2015. And apart from the expanded postseason of 2020, they have not qualified for the playoffs since 2017.
Last season they were without Jonathan Toews, and Kirby Dach spent much of the season on injured reserve. Both are starting is year healthy and ready to go. In addition to a healthy Toews and Dach, the Blackhawks will have the most recent Vezina trophy winner, Marc-André Fleury in net and elite defenseman Seth Jones on the blue line. This team might not be a Stanley Cup favorite, but they have loaded up to a point where they should be able to punch a ticket to the playoffs.
Earlier this week, the Walt Disney Company and Turner Sports announced their US NHL TV schedules for the upcoming season. Disney will air 103 NHL games across their platforms of ESPN, ESPN+, Hulu, and ABC, while Turner will air 50 games on TNT. In this week’s data dump, we dig into some of the numbers in the schedule.
Increase in televised games
This will be the first year the NHL will have two TV partners with Disney and Turner sharing the duties, which has created the opportunity to have more games televised nationally.
The most interesting component of the national TV schedule is the ESPN+/Hulu piece of the Disney contract. For those that don’t know, ESPN+ is a standalone streaming service that does not require a typical MVPD subscription.
ESPN+/Hulu will air 75 games, the most of all the channels airing national games this season. Turner will carry the most games in the traditional TV space (i.e., cable, satellite, and IPTV).
Seasonality of the national NHL TV schedule
Here is a look at how games are spread throughout the season.
The schedule is predictably light in the first several months because of all the football programming that tends to suck up sports media airtime in the fall. The large drop in February is due to the Olympic break in the NHL schedule.
For those of you that like to build routines in your schedule and might want to dedicate a certain night of the week for watching the nationally televised game, here is how the games are distributed by day of the week.
Looking at it by day of the week is where you can really see the impact football has on the schedule, as there are no Thursday or Sunday NHL games aired until January. Tuesdays and Wednesdays are clearly the most common and consistent night for nationally televised games, and it will be fun to see if Disney and Turner do any unique shoulder programing or intermission shows on those nights.
NHL TV schedule by team
Here is a look at how many nationally televised games each team will get this coming season.
It’s amazing to see the Kraken with 13 nationally televised games this season. The Vegas Golden Knights only had three nationally televised games scheduled in their inaugural season. Canadian teams like Calgary, Ottawa, and Winnipeg have traditionally not had any US nationally televised games, so it is no surprise they do not have any games on the schedule.
What is refreshing to see is Carolina and Florida have eight games each. Both clubs are fun and exciting to watch but traditionally get de-prioritized as small market teams. In 2019-20, the Hurricanes and Panthers had just one game each on the NBC/NBCSN schedule, so it is exciting to see that Disney/Turner are giving these teams the national stage they deserve.
Kraken national TV games
As noted above, the Seattle Kraken will have 13 nationally televised games this upcoming season. Here is a list of those games.
The ESPN+/Hulu games will be a different experience for hockey fans, since they will require an app/login if you are new to that platform. ESPN+ will also get you the out-of-market NHL games that will replace the NHL.tv package.
It should be an exciting time for NHL fans as the partnerships with Turner and Disney could push the game into new levels of exposure and coverage. If you have any questions or thoughts about the TV packages, drop a note in the comments.
