SEATTLE – JT Brown officially announced his retirement from professional hockey Monday morning, but it didn’t take long for him to be back in the NHL. Along with Brown’s retirement, the Seattle Kraken announced that they had hired Brown to take part in their television broadcast crew as an analyst, joining play-by-play voice John Forslund.
Kraken games will be telecast on ROOT sports, and Brown brings to the booth vast hockey experience and knowledge after playing 11 seasons of both collegiate and NHL hockey.
“It was a big decision to hang up my skates, but one that was made easier by the opportunity to work alongside John Forslund for the Seattle Kraken,” Brown said via a press release. “I am excited for the opportunity to continue my career within the hockey world and to join an organization that is dedicated to making forward progress within the sport, and I look forward to the ability to make a lasting impact on the game I’ve loved for over 25 years.”
Brown, 30, is originally from Burnsville, MN, and played NCAA hockey at the University of Minnesota Duluth (UMD). He played in 81 games for UMD, scoring 40 goals and 84 points along the way. In 2011 he led the Bulldogs to an NCAA National Championship where he was named the Frozen Four’s Most Outstanding Player.
Undrafted, Brown would sign a pro contract with the Tampa Bay Lightning, and after a season and a half in the AHL became an NHL regular with the Lightning in 2013. He would go on to play 365 NHL games with Tampa Bay, the Anaheim Ducks, and the Minnesota Wild. All told he scored 23 goals, 49 assists, and 72 points over his NHL career which included playing for the Stanley Cup during Tampa Bay’s run in 2015.
“We are excited to welcome JT Brown to the Seattle Kraken,” said Tod Leiweke, CEO of the Seattle Kraken via release. “His experience as a player winning a National Championship with the University of Minnesota Duluth and playing in the Stanley Cup Final for the Tampa Bay Lightning gives him unique insight into what it takes to compete night in and night out at the highest levels of hockey. Off the ice, JT’s values and dedication to the community reflect our own and we know he will be a great addition.”
Active in the community, Brown is a long-time advocate for diversity, equity, and inclusion. He was named to the NHL’s Fan Inclusion Committee in 2020 to help develop action-oriented solutions that positively impact the access, opportunity, and experiences that underrepresented groups have in the game and in the business of hockey.
He has championed ‘Black Girl Hockey Club,’ a non-profit organization that focuses on making hockey more inclusive for Black women and girls and has used his platform as a player and Twitch streamer to raise funds for the NHL’s Hockey is for Everyone campaign.
The Kraken continue to prepare for the NHL Expansion Draft on July 21st and the Entry Draft on July 23rd and 24th.
For this week’s Data Dump Saturday, I wanted to take a deep dive into playoff goal scoring. We often hear tidbits from hockey media on scoring, but rarely are we given context, so I thought it would be a fun topic to explore.
Playoff scoring versus regular-season scoring
It is far more difficult to score in the playoffs given greater parity in the team matchups. A basic look at average goals scored by season proves that out.
One disclaimer on the above, the disparity between playoffs and regular season is bigger than the visual illustrates since this is per game and NOT per 60 minutes. There tends to be more overtime in the playoffs, therefore there are more minutes per game.
Another way to look at the difference between playoff and regular-season scoring is by looking at the shooting percentage.
The shooting percentage goes down in the playoffs for a couple reasons. First, teams are playing their best goalies as much as possible, if not exclusively. Second, qualifying teams represent the best squads in the league and scoring against them is often more difficult than against the teams that did not qualify for the playoffs.
If we take a quick peek at the 2021 playoff teams, it is no surprise that those that are still alive have a relatively higher shooting percentage than the teams eliminated. Only Colorado has a higher shooting percentage than the four teams remaining in the playoffs.
Scoring by position
When Jan Rutta scored in the third period of Game 2 of the semifinal series between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the New York Islanders, it was the first goal scored by a Lightning defenseman in the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs. That game was the thirteenth game for Tampa Bay in the playoffs, and one defensive goal every 13 games is well below average gap in games with a defensive goal. I immediately began to wonder if it is becoming more challenging for defensemen to score in the playoffs compared to the regular season.
I am not prepared to make any hard and fast conclusions, but it certainly seems like the trend in the playoffs is a steady decline in scoring by defensemen with only 12% thus far of 2021 playoff goals scored by defensemen.
If we look into the shooting percentage by defensemen, we see they are less effective than they have been in previous years.
Again, the 2021 playoffs could be a random anomaly and does not mean that teams should stop valuing scoring defensemen, but it is something to keep an eye on.
Power play scoring in the playoffs
The last segment I want look at is power play scoring in the playoffs versus the regular season. We have already established that there are more penalties called in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, thus leading to more opportunities for power play goals.
What I would like to understand is if power play goals account for a higher percentage of all goals scored during the playoffs versus the regular season.
As the visual shows, power play goals represent a higher percent of the goals scored in the playoffs compared to the regular season.
If we peak at 2021 playoff data to date, we can see there is no correlation to the teams that have advanced to the semifinals versus the teams that have been eliminated.
It is amazing to see the difference between Tampa Bay and Vegas right now with 38% of Tampa’s goals coming on the power play versus Vegas’ 8%.
I hope this gives you some more insights on goal scoring in the playoffs and adds context to the comments we hear during the television broadcasts. If you have any questions or have an area you want me to dig into, let me know in the comments section or contact me on twitter.
The dominoes are falling. With the Expansion Draft just over a month away and the semifinals of the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs in full swing, things really are heating up in the search for the first head coach of the Seattle Kraken.
Seattle Kraken head coach search
It has long been stated by Seattle Kraken general manager Ron Francis that the head coach hiring process hinges on who might be available after the conclusion of the NHL season. He has also held firm that the team hopes to have a coach in place by the end of the second quarter of the year.
Sure, there are still four teams playing, but the chances of the remaining coaches—Barry Trotz, Jon Cooper, Pete DeBoer, or Dominique Ducharme—becoming available are nil at this point. In a way, we’ve really crossed the “season is over” threshold, because the field of available coaches is set, barring any additional firings in the coming days. And as for the “second quarter” timeframe? Well, I’m no calendar expert, but I believe the second quarter ends in 12 days.
We at SOH believe that Rod Brind’Amour was the lynchpin of the “wait for who is available” hold-up and was absolutely Plan A for Seattle. Brind’Amour had been in dragged-out contract negotiations with the Hurricanes for months. So we surmised that Francis may have been hoping to lure the newly named Jack Adams Award winner away from the franchise and community to which he is so closely connected, even as it was continuously being reported that Brind’Amour was close to signing a new deal.
What’s Plan B for the Seattle Kraken head coach search?
We at SOH also think it is not a coincidence that news broke on Thursday that Rick Tocchet is being granted a third interview for the Seattle Kraken head coach position.
Sounds like Rick Tocchet has a third meeting scheduled with the Seattle Kraken. Nothing done, but seems like a good omen for him.
If Brind’Amour really was Plan A, then certainly Francis and his staff had been thinking through some other options in case Rod the Bod did end up keeping his rippling abs in Carolina.
Rod Brind’Amour has rippling abs.
Plan B is now being kicked into high gear. Tocchet, former head coach of the Arizona Coyotes, is an obvious fit for the role as well, so his progress through the interview process comes as no surprise. And what about David Quinn? Could he be given a shot?
Our own Jim Wilkie did a great rundown on all the candidates back in May, so give that a read to bring yourself up to speed on everyone who could be considered for the position.
Whether it ends up being Tocchet or somebody else, it does feel like a Seattle Kraken head coach hire is imminent.
Other Seattle Kraken news
The Kraken are continuing to demonstrate that they are well aware their market expands beyond the borders of Washington State. This week, the team announced a partnership with Bristol Bay Native Corporation. According to the release, “Bristol Bay will be prominently represented throughout Climate Pledge Arena on hundreds of TV screens and the arena’s LED rings for arena visitors, on the main scoreboards during televised games, at the state-of-the-art Kraken training center, and at one of the arena’s prime marketplaces.”
BBNC is a for-profit corporation that converts those profits into benefits for its shareholders. The mission of the organization is to encourage its shareholders to pursue educational opportunities and to promote and preserve cultural heritage.
“Would You Rather?” Round 2 results
This week, we had a second round of Expansion Draft “Would You Rather?” on soundofhockey.com. I gave John Barr a bit of grief for this one because by including a goalie in the field, even some light Googling could have revealed that Team 3 was clearly the Washington Capitals. But that’s neither here nor there.
Here are the results:
Blackhawks sued again for sexual assault cover-up during 2009-10 season
This is a terrible story, and one that is continuing to develop. The Chicago Blackhawks now face a second lawsuit for not properly addressing allegations of sexual assault by former video coach Bradley Dale Aldrich on a player during the 2009-10 season.
This new lawsuit comes from a former high school hockey player in Michigan and alleges that because the Blackhawks did not act on the aforementioned assault in 2009-10, Aldrich was allowed to remain in hockey circles. Aldrich later assaulted this new plaintiff in 2013 and was eventually sentenced to six months in jail and five years of probation for his crime.
Stephen Johns has been dealing with severe depression after repeated concussions ended his hockey career prematurely. He has decided to take control over his life and his mental health by embarking on a remarkable journey to rollerblade and road trip across the United States, making a movie about it along the way. Johns aims to “help others facing their own battles,” as he puts in countless “Mental Miles.” Very cool.
The WHL has announced an October 1 start date, with a full 68-game season planned for all teams. The main caveat to this otherwise normal-looking season for the Dub is that there will be no crossover play between the Eastern Conference and Western Conference. Other than that, Everett Silvertips and Seattle Thunderbirds fans should be fully back in business this fall.
Palate cleanser
Is Jimmy Fallon just pretending to be a New York Islanders fan for attention? Friend of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast, ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski, investigates.
Jimmy Fallon is here. I couldn't get a photo of him on the Jumbotron so I'll just use this older image of him at a New York game. pic.twitter.com/LBbIkMkgg2
I'm so sorry, I tried to get another picture but it was blurry so here he is in one of his New York jerseys photo-bombing Jessica Chastain. pic.twitter.com/qD8fWvUXhH
Ralph Maccio does come across as a true Isles fan, though, doesn’t he?
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at Sound Of Hockey and the host, producer, and editor of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is an inconsistent beer league goalie who believes that five players have to make a mistake before the puck gets to him. Follow him on Twitter @DarrenFunBrown or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
In the months leading up to this year’s NHL Entry Draft, we’ve been told by the various draft experts that there is no definitive, sure-fire top prospect on the board. Yet, despite that narrative, University of Michigan defenseman Owen Power is ranked No. 1 on most draft projections, making him, it would seem, the closest thing to a consensus No. 1 pick. The only opinion of Power that matters is the one held by the Buffalo Sabres, who will be picking first during the July 23 NHL Entry Draft. If they pass then Seattle Kraken general manager Ron Francis will have a choice to make, and one that could land Power in Seattle.
Defensemen don’t go first overall very often and since 2000 only three have – Rasmus Dahlin to Buffalo in 2018, Aaron Ekblad to Florida in 2014, and Erik Johnson to St. Louis in 2006 – which means that Power being available at the second pick is not far fetched.
The first thing that stands out about Power is his size. He’s listed at 6-foot-5 and 214 pounds, which is not quite as big as a Victor Hedman but puts him in that range.
Power was one of three top draft prospects at Michigan last year, joining Kent Johnson and Matty Beniers. Growing up in Mississauga, outside of Toronto, he could have chosen the Major-Junior route but instead had his eyes focused on college and Michigan.
“You see how historic the hockey program is here, how many good players that came out of it,” Power said of his decision during the Wolverines media day in the fall. “With the school part, it’s a really good school… I always knew I wanted to go to college, play college hockey. School’s a big part of our family, and my parents really believed in going to university. I also think just there’s more time to develop in college than Major Junior so I think that also played a part in it.”
College or Junior, Power now has himself positioned to be a high-end NHL Draft pick.
Owen Power by the numbers
Power began his NHL Draft journey in the USHL, playing for the Chicago Steel. He spent two seasons in the Windy City and finished with an impressive 12 goals, 28 assists, and 40 points in 45 games during his final season of 2019-20.
That would turn heads, and he was soon being praised as a top player for the 2021 NHL Draft. His freshman season did nothing to assuage that perception.
Playing against predominantly older players at the NCAA level this season, Power added 16 points in 26 games, which put him on the Big 10 all-rookie team. Already ascending the draft rankings, Power further solidified himself by playing for Canada at the IIHF World Championship in June.
He was one of the youngest players in the tournament, and playing against established pros, he collected three assists in ten games while drawing praise for his overall performance against tough competition.
“He’s calm with the puck for an 18-year-old,” Canada head coach Gerard Gallant said. “He made the right decisions 95 percent of the time. He’s a total package. He played big minutes so when an 18-year-old kid can come in and do that, you know he’s going to be a great player in the NHL for a long time.”
What draft scouts say about Owen Power
Obviously, Power’s size is attractive to NHL scouts. It’s not something that can be taught, and he will fit right in on an NHL blue line. However, despite that size, he’s not yet a bruiser, and that is something that could improve as he moves into the more physical pro game.
He has good skating ability, especially for a player of his stature, and can move the puck. Power has offensive upside and has put up numbers wherever he has played. You can pencil him in to be part of your power play if you draft him.
“Probably a top pairing guy,” Hockey Sense’s Chris Peters told the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. “He’s not a lock to be a No. 1 defenseman, but I think that he is. He’s in the same mold of like a Victor Hedman kind of player. Really good skater, great mobility, defends well, probably could stand to be a little bit meaner, a little more physical with his defending. But he gets pucks up ice, he does everything, everything’s really fluid and calm and under control.”
The Big 10 and Michigan hit the ice before most other amateur leagues in North America this year, which means that NHL scouts flocked to games.
Power has been viewed and scrutinized as much as any prospect, along with his two highly ranked teammates. That can obviously be a distraction, but Power showed no signs of losing focus.
“None of us really talk too much about it,” Power said at the start of the season. “We’ve said things here and there, but it’s not a big part of like what we talk about every day. We all know, the draft is kind of out of control, where we go. So, just focusing every day and trying to get better.”
Owen Power on film
Reading about what scouts think of Power is one thing, but you really appreciate him by watching him play.
As a defenseman, he possesses all the skills and attributes that you would want out of a top-of-the-rotation guy.
Power contributes offensively but can also defend in his own end. He has size and has learned to use that size and reach to throw off would-be attackers, as seen in this clip.
Owen Power is such a big frame. #2021NHLDraft His strengths in defending will be different than others. I like finding little moments like this where you can make assessments on agility, reach, etc, and how he can recover to influence plays. pic.twitter.com/DaF5fFDlPh
He can move the puck out of his zone and displays not only great vision in the offensive zone but an accurate passing ability, as seen here where he sets up a goal with a pin-point assist.
Stop the count? Cam York (PHI) goes five-hole after Owen Power (2021) sets him up low in the offensive zone. pic.twitter.com/Q4dBIJe1o0
Seattle picking Owen Power in the draft all depends on what happens with the Sabres. Buffalo very well could pass as they still have a young Dahlin in the fold. Will they want another young, left-handed defenseman? It’s possible Buffalo prefers to pick up a center, such as Matthew Beniers.
If left available, there is a strong likelihood the Kraken will snap up Power with the second pick. Having a defenseman like him is a necessity in today’s NHL, and Francis has looked to the blue line in the draft before. As the general manager with the Carolina Hurricanes, Francis ran four drafts and in three of them, went defense with his top pick.
In 2014 Francis took Haydn Fleury with the seventh overall pick, in 2015 he drafted Noah Hanifin at No. 5, and in 2016 he selected Jake Bean with pick 13. His track record suggests building from the blue line, and he just may get the chance to do so again.
That leaves the question about whether or not Power is ready to jump into the NHL. It’s a tough position to do so at such a young age, but the top picks have done it before.
The tricky part for Seattle is that if they were to draft Power that decision would have to come quick. As a college player, Power is not eligible to participate in the Kraken main camp unless he signs an NHL contract. If he prefers to stay in school, Seattle would have to wait to see him.
He recently touched on the subject, saying that he does lean towards one more season at Michigan.
What is Owen Power thinking about returning to Michigan or turning pro – NHL Now has the answer pic.twitter.com/KiHQuRZ2ZE
The draw to return to school is understandable, but would that be a deterrent to Francis in picking him? Power isn’t an automatic to be ready for the NHL in year one and another season playing for a big NCAA program with perhaps a shot at playing in the World Juniors might ultimately help Power and in turn, help Seattle.
With a couple head coach hirings happening around the NHL this week, the Sound Of Hockey guys are left pondering Seattle’s plan for filling that position. This week’s episode of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast really digs into that topic, with John giving the hot take that he believes Rod Brind’Amour coming to the Kraken is more likely than people may think.
If you’ve been on the edge of your seat waiting to find out what happened in John and Darren’s beer league championship, you’ll get a recap here. You’ll also get a fair dose of discussion about the opening games of the Stanley Cup Playoff Semifinal rounds, which are well underway.
Other topics this week include the concerning decline in USA Hockey membership, Owen Power potentially returning to college, and some general Kraken tidbits.
Bits include Sound Of Hockey’s Three Stars. Segments include Weekly One-Timers and Tweets of the Week.
Last Friday, USA Hockey released their membership statistics for the 2020-21 season, and the results were not pretty. After years of small but steady growth, USA Hockey player memberships were down 19 percent over last season. 47 states saw declines with only two states seeing an increase in hockey player memberships and one state flat year over year.
USA Hockey Memberships – The hardest hit states
California saw the largest decrease in player memberships with 20,769 fewer players registered in 2020-21 versus 2019-20. That was a decline of 63 percent. California was fifth in total memberships during the 2019-20 season but slipped to No. 13 for the 2020-21 season. Michigan also saw a steep decline of 15,645 fewer player memberships this season.
Just about all age groups were impacted, but adult hockey memberships (19 and older) were the hardest hit with a decline of over 67,000 players (38 percent).
There is no sugar coating it. This is bad. But it is hardly a surprise. USA Hockey officials are projecting that it could be three years to recover from the loss of membership.
During the meeting, USAH officials projected it could take up to three years to recover the loss in membership, which obviously puts a big dent in the operating budget as well. First hard numbers I've seen on COVID impact on grassroots hockey.
Washington State was one of the hardest hit states with a reduction of 4,148 players, a decrease of 38 percent year over year. The decline comes after steady growth over the last 10 seasons.
Consistent with the national trend, adult hockey saw the biggest drop with a 55 percent decline season over season.
The outlook for Washington State
As bad as this year looked for Washington State, there should be plenty of reasons for optimism for a rebound. Nevada saw huge growth in USA hockey player memberships since the Vegas Golden Knights joined the NHL.
With the arrival of the Kraken in the fall, the Kraken Training Center at Northgate will bring the fourth, fifth, and sixth sheets of ice added to the region within the last 12 months. With the anticipation of the new facility, there is also growing excitement for the fall programing there with Learn to Skate and Learn to Play options for both youth and adults. We at SOH anticipate Washington State being one of the quickest states to recover to pre-pandemic levels.
Last week we played a game of “Would you rather?,” where we hid team and player names of a few squads participating in the NHL Expansion Draft and then asked the readers to submit their preferred selections based on the information provided. We had an overwhelming response to the post, so we figured we should do it again this week.
For those that missed last week, the game is simple. I am going to lay out three teams and a few of the players that are expected to be exposed in the NHL Expansion Draft from those teams. You will then select the players in a short survey at the bottom of the post. There is no right or wrong answer here; it is just a way to get your preference without the bias of seeing the player names.
Team D
Player 1
Position: Right Wing
Age on 10-1-2021: 29.8 years old
Annual Salary Cap Hit: $2M through the 2022-23 season
High-Level Scouting Report: Had six goals and 13 assists over 46 games during the 2020-21 season. Solid two-way winger with very good hockey sense. Will never put up big offensive numbers but is reliable defensively.
Player 2
Position: Forward
Age on 10-1-2021: 23.2 years old
Annual Salary Cap Hit: Becoming RFA after receiving $763K/year in 2020-21
High-Level Scouting Report: Has played in just 38 NHL games; 36 came in 2020-21 season. Only had nine points in those 36 games this season. Had 22 goals and 20 assists in 55 games in the AHL during the 2019-20 season. Offensive-minded player that is likely a second-line forward in the NHL.
Player 3
Position: Defense
Age on 10-1-2021: 27.5 years old
Annual Salary Cap Hit: $5.3M through the 2023-24 season
High-Level Scouting Report: Fantastic skater. Can play the role of a shutdown defenseman that can log a ton of minutes. Has some offensive capabilities as well. Had 10 points over 52 games in the 2020-21 season.
Team E
Player 1
Position: Forward
Age on 10-1-2021: 29.3 years old
Annual Salary Cap Hit: $1.7M through the 2021-22 season
High-Level Scouting Report: Heavy-hitting forward that can kill penalties. Not a lot of scoring touch and is likely a career bottom-six forward. Had four goals and seven assists in 41 games over the 2020-21 season.
Player 2
Position: Defense
Age on 10-1-2021: 27.3 years old
Annual Salary Cap Hit: $2.7M through the 2021-22 season
High-Level Scouting Report: Puck moving defenseman with some offensive upside. Had 10 assists in 30 games played this season in the NHL.
Player 3
Position: Defense
Age on 10-1-2021: 24.2 years old
Annual Salary Cap Hit: Becoming RFA after receiving $793K/year in 2020-21
High-Level Scouting Report: Smart two-way player that is not afraid to jump into the play to join the rush. Spent this last season split between the NHL and AHL and has only 18 NHL games over the last two seasons. Long-term potential is a little bit unknown due to the small sample size of NHL games.
Team F
Player 1
Position: Wing
Age on 10-1-2021: 29.3 years old
Annual Salary Cap Hit: $1.5M through the 2022-23 season
High-Level Scouting Report: Undersized depth scoring forward on a cheap contract over the next two seasons. Scored 14 goals in 53 games during the 2020-21 season. Reliable in defensive situations.
Player 2
Position: Defense
Age on 10-1-2021: 30.9 years old
Annual Salary Cap Hit: $3.9M through the 2023-24 season
High-Level Scouting Report: Big, physical defenseman without a lot of scoring upside. Slots in well on the second defense pairing. Had two goals and 17 assists over 56 games during the 2020-21 season.
Player 3
Position: Goalie
Age on 10-1-2021: 25.7 years old
Annual Salary Cap Hit: Becoming RFA after receiving $717K/year in 2020-21
High-Level Scouting Report: Great quickness and lateral movement. At 6-foot-2 he is a little small for the position but has shown promise to be a regular goalie in the NHL. During 2020-21 season, he played 37 games with a save percentage of .908 and a goals-against-average of 2.69.
Submit your NHL Expansion Draft selections
If you want to play GM, fill out the questions below and we will share the results in the Weekly One-Timers at the end of the week.
One of the points of discussion during the Stanley Cup Playoffs is the quality of officiating. We have heard from columnists, coaches, and plenty of fans complaining about the calls going against them this year. This is a common complaint every year.
A few months ago, I published a Data Dump piece on penalties that evaluated how often they were assessed in games and when they were most frequently called during the regular season. For this week’s Data Dump, I wanted to revisit that piece with a focus on comparing regular season penalties called to those called in playoff games.
Penalties called per 60 minutes
I was a surprised to see that the rate of penalties called in playoff games is higher than regular-season games.
But whenever you look at data, it is important to add context to the figures. Like in my previous article, I used the goal differential to provide context to these penalties.
Penalties called where the goal differential is two goals or less seems rather consistent between regular season and playoffs. It is in the blowout game situation (goal differential of three or more) where things seem to get a bit out of hand. If you watch playoff hockey on a regular basis you can formulate why this happens, as teams tend to “send messages” or get frustrated and start committing penalties when the game becomes one-sided.
Penalties called by scenario: leading team vs trailing team
When we looked at the regular season trends a few months ago, there seemed to be some indicators that referees were more likely to call a penalty on teams that were leading a game versus trailing a game.
When we isolate the playoff games, there seems to be less variance between the penalties called on leading versus trailing teams.
The last two playoff seasons appear to have little to no difference in the number penalties called. Before we wrap this up and claim there is no bias in calling penalties if a team is leading versus trailing in the playoffs, let’s add some score differential context.
In the chart above, the difference between penalties called on the leading versus trailing team seems very consistent in the regular season, regardless of the goal differential. Let us look at the playoff games.
In the chart above, the rate at which penalties are called is flipped in games where the goal differential is three or more. The data shows that penalties are more likely called on the trailing team when the goal differential is three or more. As previously stated, the reasons for this are the “message sending” and frustration-type penalties.
Penalties called in the third period
One of the most compelling visuals in the regular season post I did in March was the chart showing penalties called in the third period based on goal differential. Here is the updated visual with the breakdown.
One of the takeaways I see in the chart above is that the leading team seems more likely to be called for a penalty in the last five minutes of a one-goal game than any other time in the game. Now we can look at how this same data looks in the playoffs.
The large discrepancy of penalties in the playoffs in the last five minutes of a one-goal game between the leading and trailing team is no longer present. What jumps out at me in this chart is the spread in the two-goal game. In the first 10 minutes of the third period in a two-goal game, the leading team is much more likely to get a penalty called on them (about 61 percent) compared to the trailing team (about 39 percent).
Conclusions
Directionally, there are some interesting things in this analysis of penalties called in the regular season versus playoff games, but before we draw any hard-and-fast conclusions, here are a few other things to consider:
Because only the top-16 teams qualify for the playoffs, there should be more parity in playoff games compared to regular season games, which could explain some of the variance when comparing the two types of contests.
There is also a much bigger sample size when looking at the regular season versus the playoffs. The higher volume of regular-season games will smooth out any anomalies that could create higher variance with a smaller sample size.
There are always other dimensions that could be added to the analysis to gather more intelligence about the data (i.e., type of penalty, player personnel deployed, etc.).
I hope this gives you a little deeper understanding of penalties called during the Stanley Cup Playoffs as opposed to just believing a coach’s remarks in a post-game press conference or a tweet you might have seen from a prominent journalist.
It turns out the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs really are exciting after all! Who knew?! What a wild week it has been in the NHL, as all four second-round series of the Stanley Cup Playoffs were put to rest without a single Game 7 being reached. While it was a bit disappointing that there wasn’t a Game 7 this time, the second round did not lack excitement or intensity.
On to the Conference Finals Stanley Cup Semifinals (apparently we aren’t calling it the Conference Finals this year because there technically aren’t conferences)!
The second round of the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs in a nutshell
The Montreal Canadiens continued their shocking run with a sweep of the Jets and are now set to become the first Canadian (Canadien?) team to cross the border into the United States since the pandemic started.
Remember when Mike Milbury called that thing the Space Needle?
The Tampa Bay Lightning continue to defend their crown while playing fast and loose with the salary cap, which no longer exists during the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. Carolina’s Dougie Hamilton isn’t thrilled about the brilliant finagling that the Bolts have done, complaining to the media on Thursday, “We lost to a team that’s $18 million over the cap.” Sure, Dougie, but those are the rules, and with the Lightning being that far over the cap currently, they will be absolutely screwed for the Expansion Draft, so we Seattleites are just fine with it.
The hockey world continues to sleep on the New York Islanders year in and year out. People seem to forget that they reached the Conference Finals last season and are still coached by Barry Trotz, a darn good coach, and managed by Lou Lamoriello, a darn good manager.
People are over the moon for this team on Long Island, and even co-owner Jon Ledecky is getting in on the fun.
In retrospect, Bruce Cassidy referring to the Islanders as the “New York Saints” after Game 5 was a huge mistake because it seemed to galvanize this team and its fanbase even more, and it cost Cassidy $25,000 in fines.
And we can’t forget the Vegas Golden Knights who closed out Colorado in impressive style on Thursday, capping yet another disappointing postseason for the usually electrifying Avalanche. Maybe the Avs were just thinking too much?
Anyway, I personally don’t think the issue was that the Avalanche were thinking too much. I think the issue was that they kept wearing those heinous blue pants all season long.
32 Bar & Grill
After getting sued for initially naming the restaurant at the Kraken Training Center the Kraken Bar & Grill, the Seattle Kraken have announced a new name for the establishment. The 32 Bar & Grill does have a nice ring to it, and frankly I like this better than “Kraken Bar & Grill.”
As my beer league team and I were standing in the parking lot of Lynnwood Arena drinking a couple pops after a late-night game earlier this week, we were discussing how great it will be to have an actual on-site bar to go into following those tough contests in the future.
We’re definitely pumped to have a few naughty waters at this place!
Sound Of Hockey’s own John Barr put together a fun exercise earlier this week, a “Would You Rather” for a few teams that will be participating in the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft. In that exercise, John gave a choice of three players from each of the three teams and shared some basic information about them. The catch was that he withheld the players’ names and asked fans to tell us who they would select in the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft based solely on the information provided.
We had a huge response from readers, which was awesome to see. Thank you to all who participated.
Here are the results and the revelation of who the players were.
I’ll be honest, there are more Tanner Jeannot stans reading Sound Of Hockey than I realized.
Columbus promotes former assistant coach
The Blue Jackets have promoted from within to fill the vacancy left by former head coach John Tortorella. After seven seasons as an assistant, Brad Larsen, 43, becomes the eighth head coach in franchise history.
“I couldn’t be happier for Brad and his family. He’s coached me my whole career, since I played in (AHL) Springfield, and has earned this opportunity. As soon as we found out Torts wouldn’t be back, I knew (Larsen) would be the right man for the job."
Some familiar faces from around the Seattle metropolitan area will be back in the WHL next season, but with teams north of the border. Former Everett general manager Garry Davidson was named Director of Player Personnel for the Calgary Hitmen after nine seasons at the helm of the Silvertips. It had been announced in May that Davidson would not be returning to Everett in what turned out to be a cost-cutting move.
Meanwhile, friend of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast Steve Konowalchuk has been hired as the head coach of the Red Deer Rebels. Konowalchuk coached the Seattle Thunderbirds from 2011-2017 and led the T-Birds to a WHL championship in 2016-17.
Also, ho hum, Silvertips netminder Dustin Wolf won another major award, the Del Wilson Memorial Trophy as the WHL goalie of the year. This is the second time Wolf has won this prestigious prize, and it was well deserved after the Calgary Flames prospect posted a record of 18-3-0 with a 1.80 goals against average and .940 save percentage.
Around the boards
Taya Currie, a 16-year-old netminder, made history this week by becoming the first female ever drafted to the OHL. Selected in the fourteenth round by the Sarnia Sting, Currie now has an opportunity to follow in the footsteps of the legendary Manon Rheaume, who broke the gender barrier in both the QMJHL and the NHL, and Shannon Szabados, who once had a brief stint with the Tri-City Americans in the WHL.
Finalists for the biggest individual NHL awards were announced this week. Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Auston Matthews make up the field for the Hart Trophy. Andrei Vasilevskiy, Marc-Andre Fleury, and Philipp Grubauer are in the running for the Vezina Trophy, while Adam Fox, Victor Hedman, and Cale Makar are the finalists for the Norris Trophy. The full list of awards finalists can be found here.
Palate cleanser
This has quickly become one of my favorite GIFs of all time:
— mostly wish i cheered for some other team (@mostlyleafies) June 7, 2021
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at Sound Of Hockey and the host, producer, and editor of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is an inconsistent beer league goalie who believes that five players have to make a mistake before the puck gets to him. Follow him on Twitter @DarrenFunBrown or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
Last summer, Matt Beniers was preparing to play hockey for his freshman NCAA season with Harvard University. It was his first year of NHL Draft eligibility and one loaded with high expectations for the center. Then Covid-19 became an issue as hockey leagues around the world were making the tough call not to play. That included the Ivy League which meant no season for Harvard and left Beniers scrambling. Beniers would land on his feet to turn in a spectacular season and is poised to be selected at the top of July’s NHL Draft, perhaps even going second overall to the Seattle Kraken.
When the Ivy League announced it was not going to play, Beniers was able to transfer to the University of Michigan. He had been playing in nearby Plymouth, MI for the United States National Team Development Program (USNTDP) and was familiar with the coaching staff.
That made the decision easier.
“I just kind of had to make a hockey decision and make a decision for myself,” Beniers said during Michigan’s media day in the fall. “It just kind of fit all the things that I wanted in a school, obviously, great academics and a great program. A lot of guys I already knew were going there.”
Once he made the decision to become a Wolverine, the excitement grew.
Michigan already had two impressive incoming freshmen in defenseman Owen Power and forward Kent Johnson. All three players were projected by NHL’s Central scouting as potential first-round picks in the NHL Draft heading into the season.
“I didn’t really know how great it would be until I got here,” Beniers added. “Every day we’re pushing each other. And those two, like, they obviously also love hockey, and it’s what they want to do with the rest of their life. So, it’s kind of cool being around guys that just love the game and want to get better every day. It pushes me, I push them and so I think it will be a lot of benefit from playing together.”
Playing mostly against older college players, Beniers had a strong season, but Michigan’s run for a National Championship was cut down. Again, Covid-19 was the culprit as the Wolverines had to withdraw from the NCAA tournament due to a number of positive tests.
That disappointment hasn’t soured Beniers’ NHL Draft expectations which will come to a head on July 23 and just may land him in Seattle with the Kraken.
Matt Beniers by the numbers
Beniers, 18, started drawing attention after a strong 2019-2020 season with the USNTDP, splitting time between the U18 and USHL squads. In total, he appeared in 60 games and scored 25 goals to go with 32 assists for a total of 57 points.
He was also a key part of Team USA’s gold medal winning club at the World Junior Championship in January. Beniers was one of the youngest players on the team, a tournament dominated by 19-year-old NHL-drafted players, but by tournament’s end was one of the Americans’ top forwards.
Over the past couple of weeks, he won a bronze medal playing for Team USA at the IIHF World Championship. Playing against older professionals, he recorded a pair of points in six games but drew rave reviews.
He has the size, listed at 6-foot-1 and 174 pounds, and as a ‘late birthday’ he will turn 19 just after the start of the upcoming NHL season.
What do the scouts say about Beniers?
Beniers is consistently ranked high among scouting services. NHL Central Scouting ranked him as the sixth-best North American skater while other services either had him ranked first or second overall.
Chris Peters from Hockey Sense compares him to Chicago Blackhawks star Jonathan Toews in terms of a guy who didn’t pile up numbers in college but who displayed the necessary skill to be an elite two-way center and a guy that will make those around him better.
“I view a guy like Matty Beniers as a franchise building block,” Peters told the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. “I was talking to a scout and he called Matty Beniers a May-June player, meaning this is a guy that’s going to win the Stanley Cup, this is a guy that’s going to be there in the playoffs…He’s such an impact player, he impacts the game in all zones, and then he does have the skill to finish.”
Scouting reports on Beniers all hail him as the quintessential 200-foot center. He hounds pucks in the defensive zone but can quickly transition into offense and lead a rush the other way. His vision is superb, and teammates have to be ready for his pass.
It’s also how he would scout himself when asked what makes him a quality player.
“I would say either my hockey IQ or my ability to play in all situations,” Beniers said about himself. “Just my ability to play defense, produce offensively, but also and play penalty kill, power play, kind of whatever they need, I can fill that role or whatever role they want me to fill.”
Beniers’ skill on display
After winning the second overall pick in the NHL Draft Lottery on June 2, Seattle general manager Ron Francis was asked if there was a player who would be able to step directly into the NHL. Most players need a year or two of further development after being drafted with maybe three or four playing the same year they are selected.
“You wait to get them into training camp and see how they play and how they perform and make sure that they’re ready,” Francis said. “Not only from a hockey game standpoint, but also physically and mentally. It’s not an easy league, and less and less players are stepping out of the draft and stepping into the NHL.”
Could Beniers be such a player?
With his late birthday, he’ll be nearly a year older than most of the players drafted which will certainly help. But his skills will perhaps be the biggest factor.
“He has the physical package, he’s strong, he’s competitive, and I’ve never seen him intimidated in any game.” Peters said. “He has the speed and the quickness; his brain operates at the level that you need at the NHL level. I do think Beniers has the most likely game to translate because the other thing that he can do is you don’t need to put them on your top two lines, you can put them on your third line and he’s still gonna find a way to make an impact.”
Watching Beniers, those skills become evident quickly.
In the clip below from the World Juniors you see the definition of a 200-foot player. Beniers retrieves a loose puck in his own end and quickly turns up ice the other way. He hits the neutral zone with speed and has his head up to spot an open winger at the blue line. Beniers connects a perfect pass for a shot on goal.
Beniers can play in all situations, especially on the penalty kill. In this clip he makes an absurd play on the kill while also showing off how strong he is on the puck. Good luck getting it from him.
Matt Beniers rags the puck for nearly 20 seconds while killing a penalty.
During the World Junior Championship gold medal game against Canada, he showed off his whole tool kit on one shift. Here he handles the puck through traffic in the neutral zone and finds an open shooter for a high-danger scoring opportunity. After the shot is stopped, Beniers hustles down the rebound to set up another teammate.
While he has all the skills and speed to be a two-way center, Beniers can finish. It’s an aspect of his game that can get overlooked. Here we see him put himself in a position to receive a pass for a scoring chance, one that he buries.
#NTDP Alumni Update. Some more fine work from the Wolverines on the 2nd goal of the game for Matt Beniers.
A nice keep in from Cam York ignites the play and such a good play from Kent Johnson as he finds Beniers in tight for the tap in. #GoBluepic.twitter.com/qkUmB4kZSk
Will the Seattle Kraken draft Matt Beniers second overall?
Seattle may not have a say, as the Buffalo Sabres may want to snatch Beniers first overall. This is a draft year where there are no sure things at the top of the list. Rather, there are five or six guys who all have the ability to turn into impact players.
Beniers is certainly in that group and if Buffalo goes in another direction with the first pick, it will be hard to imagine Francis passing up a chance to add a player like Beniers.
