Expansion Draft rumors started circulating before the protection lists were even released. There has since been a flurry of reports, whispers, and rumors on what is happening with Seattle and the Kraken’s plans for the Expansion Draft. Some of these reports will come to fruition and some will flame out. Nothing will be finalized until we hear the official selections on Wednesday evening when the Seattle Kraken announce their picks at Gas Works Park.
To help make sense of the rumors, we gave them all a sniff test to see which ones might happen and which ones might not.
Rumor: Chris Driedger will be one of the goalies selected in the Expansion Draft
All signs point to the Seattle Kraken signing and selecting pending UFA goalie Chris Driedger from the Florida Panthers as part of the expansion draft process, sources say. @TSNHockey@TheAthletic
Assessment: Driedger has been cited as a goalie of interest for months. At the time of this tweet, it seemed odd that Seattle would be close to signing a pending UFA, before the 48-hour free agent negotiating window. There are scenarios where pending UFA’s are given approval to start talking to other teams before free agency officially begins, so this is possible and within the NHL rules.
Since then, Elliotte Friedman published the details of the contract with Driedger, which feels close to locked. Bank it.
As we await what SEA decides with Carey Price, word is that the Kraken are closing in on FLA’s Chris Driedger at 3x$3.5M. I dont believe that precludes them from selecting Price, but one goalie appears locked-in.
Rumor: Seattle Kraken are considering selecting Carey Price
(Too many tweets and hot takes to share)
Believability Factor: Low
Assessment: I do not think Seattle is legitimately considering taking Price unless there are some significant assets coming back or some salary is retained or something like that. The Kraken probably explored some options involving Carey Price, but it just does not feel consistent with their strategy of leveraging their cap space and the heavy investment in analytics. With the imminent signing of Driedger for a $3.5 million cap hit per year, coupled with a potential $10.5 million for taking on Price, this seems like a dead issue.
Never say never, I guess.
Rumor: Seattle will select Nikita Zadorov from the Chicago Blackhawks
Seattle likely to pluck Dman Nikita Zadorov from #Blackhawks. Chicago was unsuccessful in moving him prior to yesterday’s deadline. #seakraken
Assessment: Chicago does not have a lot of good options for Seattle to choose from, and Zadorov does seem like the most popular selection from what they do have. Calvin de Haan is the only other player on the table, and he is four years older than Zadorov. I would not lock Zadorov in until the ink is dry, but this seems like the likely scenario.
Rumor: Mark Giordano will be selected from the Calgary Flames
From our pal @frank_seravalli on the DFO Rundown, regarding Mark Giordano and the Seattle Kraken:
"I think it's almost definitely Mark Giordano. In fact, I believe that Seattle has given Calgary an indication that they will indeed take Mark Giordano."#Flames
Assessment: Calgary is another team without a lot of quality options for the Seattle Kraken, and Giordano has been on most people’s lists for a while. He is the current captain of the Calgary Flames and possesses the leadership qualities the Kraken will need in year one. There is also a scenario where he is drafted and flipped, though, so don’t go ordering your Giordano jersey right away.
Rumor: Vladimir Taresenko could be drafted and flipped
Told “if” Seattle drafts Vladimir Tarasenko it will not be his final destination. #stlblues
Assessment: The key word here is “could.” No one is saying this is going to happen. The “draft and flip” scenario was used four times by Vegas in 2017 and might be more common in 2021 as Ron Francis leverages his salary cap position to launder players, take on salary, and gather draft picks.
Also, it’s important to note that Vince Dunn is a restricted free agent and will still need a contract should the Kraken select him. Francis and his staff could just be weighing all their options at this time before they need to submit their final pick for St. Louis.
Rumor: New York Islanders are mulling over a side deal to prevent the Kraken from selecting Josh Bailey
Assessment: The New York Islanders’ protection list was a bit of a headscratcher when it was released. The Islanders are protecting fourth-liners Cal Clutterbuck and Matt Martin over Josh Bailey and Jordan Eberle. Clutterbuck, 33, and Martin, 32, each had 11 points this season, while 31-year-olds Bailey and Eberle had 35 and 33 points respectively.
The feeling was that the Islanders exposed Bailey and Eberle in hopes that Seattle will take either along with one of their ~$5 million cap hits versus Clutterbuck’s $3.5 million and Martin’s $1.5 million contracts. If there is a deal in place for Bailey, it feels like this would have been pre-arranged before the protection lists were due.
Rumor: A dead fish selects Alexander Kerfoot from the Toronto Maple Leafs
Assessment: Ok, the fish part is not the believable part, but Kerfoot is one of the few options out of Toronto. ESPN probably went through multiple takes with multiple names in hopes of using it in the broadcast. It is no secret that Kerfoot, Jared McCann, and Travis Dermott are the options out of Toronto. So why not record Kevin Weekes and the fish mongers doing this for those three players to then use the correct one in the broadcast? Now that is believable.
We have about 24 hours left in this rumor mill before the Wednesday 7 a.m. deadline for Seattle to submit its expansion selections to the league. This is one of the fun parts of the process, and it certainly is enjoyable to see people’s heads explode online. Still, when these rumors pop up, consider pumping the brakes a bit before you share them as if you are a TSN Insider.
The 2020-21 NHL season might have ended last week, but we are headed into two of the busiest weeks on the league’s calendar. We thought it would be a good idea to lay out the key dates and milestones and call out what to look for from a Seattle Kraken fan’s perspective.
Key Dates and milestones from the NHL calendar
Mid-July – There has not been a release day set for the 2021-22 NHL schedule, but we anticipate it will be announced around this time.
What to look for: Rivalry games and road trips. Let’s go!
July 13 – Last day NHL clubs can ask players to waive their no-movement clause (NMC) for the Seattle Expansion Draft.
What to look for: There are a couple teams that would love to have a player waive his NMC. Calgary has already gotten Milan Lucic to waive his, but other teams to watch are the Colorado Avalanche (Erik Johnson), Buffalo Sabres (Jeff Skinner), Florida Panthers (Keith Yandle), and Minnesota Wild (Zach Parise, Ryan Suter). Expect bits of information to leak out about the status of these players and their NMC’s. Colorado and Minnesota are probably the most intriguing from a Seattle perspective because if they do not get these players to waive, someone very talented should be exposed.
July 17 – Rosters freeze at noon PST and Expansion Draft protection lists are due to the league by 2 p.m.
What to look for: News will leak about who is protected and who is not, but the NHL will not publish the official protection lists until the 18th.
July 18 – Expansion protection lists released. The Seattle Kraken can negotiate with any restricted or unrestricted free agents that are unprotected.
What to look for: All the mock drafts and projected protection lists are out the window at this point. It is important to understand that there will be side deals in the Expansion Draft and the Seattle Kraken might not always select the best player available if there has been a pre-arranged side deal with the respective clubs.
July 21 – Seattle Kraken must submit their list of expansion players to the NHL by 10 a.m. PST and the selections will be announced at 5 p.m. PST on ESPN2 that day.
What to look for: Selections will be leaked throughout the day as players are informed of their selection. The mystery will be in the trades and side deals that will happen as part of the Expansion Draft.
July 23 – Round 1 of the NHL Entry Draft begins at 5 p.m.
July 24 – Rounds 2-7 of the NHL Entry Draft
What to look for: Barring any big trades, the Kraken will have at least one pick in the first round, but if the Vegas Expansion Draft was any indicator, they could accumulate a few more first-round picks. Most of the players drafted in the first round will not play in the NHL during the 2021-22 season, but they will be the foundation of the team down the road.
July 26 – The deadline for teams to extend qualifying offers to their restricted free agents.
What to look for: In previous years, this deadline hasn’t been that interesting, but with the salary cap crunch the league is facing right now, teams might be unwilling to extend qualifying offers to players with arbitration rights. If teams extend qualifying offers to players that are eligible for arbitration, players could exercise their rights and potentially force the team to use more cap space on them. Players like Alex Nedeljkovic (Carolina), Andreas Athanasiou (Los Angeles), and Teddy Blueger (Pittsburgh) all fit in this category and could be surprise players to not be extended a qualifying offer. By not receiving a qualifying offer, they will enter unrestricted free agency and could sign with any team.
July 28 – Opening of NHL free agency.
What to look for: The Vegas Golden Knights were not big players in their first year of NHL free agency. We do not expect Seattle to make a big splash in its first year either, but because of the salary cap situation, Seattle could be a great destination for some value players that might not be able to find the dollars they want elsewhere. We anticipate a few players in the second tier of free agents – perhaps guys like Tyson Barrie or Brandon Montour – to be candidates for signing in Seattle.
Early September – No firm date has been communicated, but the Kraken Community Iceplex is expected to open to the public within the first two weeks of September.
Middle of September – Seattle Kraken prospect camp begins. No dates or communications have gone out about this, but Ron Francis hinted at a prospect camp right before training camp to minimize the travel and complications of crossing borders during a condensed offseason.
Mid-to-Late September – Seattle Kraken training camp begins.
What to look for: Expect a healthy number of practices that are open to the public. Open practices are an excellent way to connect with the community and with fans that might not have the ability to attend regular-season games.
Mid-October – 2021-22 Seattle Kraken Regular Season begins
What to look for: Everything!
It goes without saying that the next three weeks will be the biggest three weeks of the Seattle Kraken’s brief history. Anticipate a wide range of national coverage that will speculate wildly about future success or failures of the franchise. Read with caution. Most post-Expansion Draft articles from the Vegas draft picked the Golden Knights to finish dead last in the league. The Golden Knights then proceeded to play in the Stanley Cup Final. It would be foolish to expect the same type of success in year one for the Kraken, but we will not have a great idea about how this team will look until mid-November. No matter what, this is when the fun begins, enjoy it.
Last week we played a game of “Would you rather?,” where we hid team and player names of a few squads participating in the NHL Expansion Draft and then asked the readers to submit their preferred selections based on the information provided. We had an overwhelming response to the post, so we figured we should do it again this week.
For those that missed last week, the game is simple. I am going to lay out three teams and a few of the players that are expected to be exposed in the NHL Expansion Draft from those teams. You will then select the players in a short survey at the bottom of the post. There is no right or wrong answer here; it is just a way to get your preference without the bias of seeing the player names.
Team D
Player 1
Position: Right Wing
Age on 10-1-2021: 29.8 years old
Annual Salary Cap Hit: $2M through the 2022-23 season
High-Level Scouting Report: Had six goals and 13 assists over 46 games during the 2020-21 season. Solid two-way winger with very good hockey sense. Will never put up big offensive numbers but is reliable defensively.
Player 2
Position: Forward
Age on 10-1-2021: 23.2 years old
Annual Salary Cap Hit: Becoming RFA after receiving $763K/year in 2020-21
High-Level Scouting Report: Has played in just 38 NHL games; 36 came in 2020-21 season. Only had nine points in those 36 games this season. Had 22 goals and 20 assists in 55 games in the AHL during the 2019-20 season. Offensive-minded player that is likely a second-line forward in the NHL.
Player 3
Position: Defense
Age on 10-1-2021: 27.5 years old
Annual Salary Cap Hit: $5.3M through the 2023-24 season
High-Level Scouting Report: Fantastic skater. Can play the role of a shutdown defenseman that can log a ton of minutes. Has some offensive capabilities as well. Had 10 points over 52 games in the 2020-21 season.
Team E
Player 1
Position: Forward
Age on 10-1-2021: 29.3 years old
Annual Salary Cap Hit: $1.7M through the 2021-22 season
High-Level Scouting Report: Heavy-hitting forward that can kill penalties. Not a lot of scoring touch and is likely a career bottom-six forward. Had four goals and seven assists in 41 games over the 2020-21 season.
Player 2
Position: Defense
Age on 10-1-2021: 27.3 years old
Annual Salary Cap Hit: $2.7M through the 2021-22 season
High-Level Scouting Report: Puck moving defenseman with some offensive upside. Had 10 assists in 30 games played this season in the NHL.
Player 3
Position: Defense
Age on 10-1-2021: 24.2 years old
Annual Salary Cap Hit: Becoming RFA after receiving $793K/year in 2020-21
High-Level Scouting Report: Smart two-way player that is not afraid to jump into the play to join the rush. Spent this last season split between the NHL and AHL and has only 18 NHL games over the last two seasons. Long-term potential is a little bit unknown due to the small sample size of NHL games.
Team F
Player 1
Position: Wing
Age on 10-1-2021: 29.3 years old
Annual Salary Cap Hit: $1.5M through the 2022-23 season
High-Level Scouting Report: Undersized depth scoring forward on a cheap contract over the next two seasons. Scored 14 goals in 53 games during the 2020-21 season. Reliable in defensive situations.
Player 2
Position: Defense
Age on 10-1-2021: 30.9 years old
Annual Salary Cap Hit: $3.9M through the 2023-24 season
High-Level Scouting Report: Big, physical defenseman without a lot of scoring upside. Slots in well on the second defense pairing. Had two goals and 17 assists over 56 games during the 2020-21 season.
Player 3
Position: Goalie
Age on 10-1-2021: 25.7 years old
Annual Salary Cap Hit: Becoming RFA after receiving $717K/year in 2020-21
High-Level Scouting Report: Great quickness and lateral movement. At 6-foot-2 he is a little small for the position but has shown promise to be a regular goalie in the NHL. During 2020-21 season, he played 37 games with a save percentage of .908 and a goals-against-average of 2.69.
Submit your NHL Expansion Draft selections
If you want to play GM, fill out the questions below and we will share the results in the Weekly One-Timers at the end of the week.
The Stanley Cup Playoffs are back, and the MassMutual East Division opens this weekend with a couple of enticing matchups as the Boston Bruins face the Washington Capitals and the Pittsburgh Penguins take on the New York Islanders.
It starts Saturday with a fun matchup between two veteran teams with opposite strengths, and Sunday we get to see if the Penguins are truly back. This is just the beginning so prepare your couch for heavy use as we watch it all play out over the next month and a half.
Here’s a look at the first round matchups for the MassMutual East Division:
New York Islanders (4) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (1)
The Matchup – Two years ago these teams met in another first-round matchup that resulted in a sweep by the Islanders. The Penguins come into this series hot, winners of three in a row and eight of the past 10. It’s not the same for New York, which started the season strong but has trailed off down the stretch and limped into the playoffs.
Pittsburgh had a resurgent season of sorts and after two early postseason exits in a row will have some pressure to go further this time around. Offensively, Crosby has been what you’d expect him to be and will be the focus again. The Penguins overcame some injuries this season but got Malkin back in the fold near the end of the season and are firing on all cylinders while scoring the most goals in the division and second-most in the NHL.
New York held onto top spot in the division at one point, but it’s been a struggle for coach Barry Trotz and his troops. To try and add some offensive punch, the Islanders picked up Travis Zajac and Kyle Palmieri from New Jersey. The two longtime Devils have not provided said punch, however, and have combined for just three goals.
The Penguins have the league’s fourth-best power play, which sets up a strength-on-strength situation in this matchup as the Islanders are sixth on the kill. Conversely, the Islanders are near the bottom of the stack in power-play rankings while the Penguins have struggled to consistently kill off penalties.
Wild Cards
While the trade with the Devils didn’t pan out as the Islanders had hoped, they have been getting contributions from rookie Oliver Wahlstrom who potted 12 goals and 21 points in 44 games. He could end up being a factor providing some much-needed secondary scoring for the offensively challenged Islanders.
The Penguins added Jeff Carter at the deadline and the veteran has been hot, potting nine goals. He adds more options for the already stacked Penguins attack.
Both clubs have some options for the Seattle Kraken to track in preparation of July’s Expansion Draft. Pittsburgh will have choices to make between protecting quality depth forwards Teddy Blueger, Jared McCann, or Brandon Tanev. The Islanders have some cap issues that could expose guys like Leddy, Bailey, Michael Dal Colle, or potentially rookie Keiffer Bellows.
Who’s going to win this?
In one corner the Penguins have one of the top offensive attacks in the NHL, and they’ll be facing one of the stingiest teams in the Islanders. This will come down to who can impose their will more. Trotz will try to slow things down for the Islanders to hinder Crosby and company. In the end, the Penguins have too much firepower resulting in a Pittsburgh win in six games.
Washington ended the season tied with Pittsburgh but lost out on the division title because of a tiebreaker. Both are veteran-laden teams that still have pieces from their most recent Stanley Cup triumphs, so there won’t be an experience edge for anyone. Storylines abound in this series as Boston legend Zdeno Chara returns to face the Bruins as a Capital.
Boston’s top line of Pastrnak, Bergeron, and Marchand continue to be among the best in the league and the Capitals will need Chara and Brenden Dillon to stand tall on the back end. The Bruins rely on the big three for scoring – they scored 72 of Boston’s 168 goals this year – but that might not be enough. Players such as David Krejci and Craig Smith need to find a way to score. In goal, Rask is playing in what could be his last season in Boston and that will be motivation for one more kick at the can.
Washington has been consistent all season and appears to have overcome an injury scare to Ovechkin late in the season. The Russian star can still fire the puck, and while the Bruins have one of the best defenses in the NHL, nothing seems to stop Ovechkin. One of the top goal-scoring teams, the Capitals have depth scoring and outside of their top players, T.J. Oshie, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Tom Wilson can pick up the slack scoring wise.
Both teams are good on special teams, which should be a wash. But in any playoff matchup, discipline is key.
Wild Cards
Boston won the trade deadline’s biggest chip by landing Taylor Hall from Buffalo. Since joining the Bruins he’s been good with 14 points in 16 games. The Bruins struggled to score consistently prior to Hall arriving, and he could be the key to closing the gap with Washington. Vanecek has been a revelation for the Capitals this year, but he is unproven. The rookie has never played in a Stanley Cup Playoff game, and he’ll need to rise to the occasion to beat the Bruins in this matchup.
Kraken watch
Seattle could end up getting some key players at the Expansion Draft out of this playoff matchup. For Boston, they may end up exposing players such as Nick Ritchie up front or defenders Jeremy Lauzon or Connor Clifton. Washington is an interesting team to watch for the Kraken. Vanacek could be an option in goal but has played so well that Washington could end up protecting him and exposing Ilya Samsonov instead.
Who’s going to win this?
The Bruins are the defensively oriented team while the Capitals scored all the goals this season. It’s always a fun playoff matchup when strengths are at odds. Boston needs to find secondary scoring and could get it from Hall. Will he be enough to push the Bruins past the rookie Vanacek and into the second round? Yes, Boston in six.
While general manager Ron Francis tries hard to keep his coaching search under wraps, it’s very likely that his top choices to become the Seattle Kraken’s first head coach are still under contract somewhere else.
Back in November, Kraken ownership reportedly gave the front office permission to hire a coach whenever it felt ready. Last month Francis said he expects a decision by the end of the second quarter and is patiently waiting to see in “the next month or two” who will be available (coaches looking for work, on expiring contracts or “other situations that may be looking to make a change,” i.e., soon to be fired). Clearly, if Francis’ first choice had already been available, the Kraken would have hired him by now.
Another quality that’s not necessary, but will certainly help, is Francis’ close ties and familiarity with coaching candidates. After playing 23 seasons in the NHL and working another 13 years in NHL front offices, Francis has accumulated quite a lengthy list of connections.
Just look at some Kraken hockey operations personnel, for example. Assistant GM Ricky Olczyk and pro scout Mark Hunter worked for the Hurricanes when Francis held front office roles in Carolina. Assistant GM Jason Botterill worked alongside Francis on Hockey Canada’s management team for the 2019 World Ice Hockey Championship. Director of player personnel Robert Kron, director of amateur scouting Norm Maciver and pro scout Stu Barnes were NHL teammates with Francis. Pro scout Jon Goodwin was Francis’ junior hockey teammate on the OHL’s Soo Greyhounds.
It’s been said we’re all linked to everyone else by six degrees of separation. But if you want the plumb NHL job as the Seattle Kraken franchise’s first head coach, good luck if you’re more than one degree removed from Francis.
Unfortunately for the Kraken, these notable Francis connections won’t be available: Florida Panthers coach Joel Quenneville, Edmonton Oilers coach Dave Tippett, Washington Capitals coach Peter Laviolette, Philadelphia Flyers coach Alain Vigneault and Minnesota Wild coach Dean Evason.
Inasmuch as it would be refreshing to hire a new face instead of the usual suspects who end up being recycled around the league, Seattle will need a seasoned coach who can command respect and get results from a veteran-laden lineup. Comments by Francis back this up, and it would take an incredible audition and interview for a coach without NHL head coaching experience to blow away the Kraken.
The Stanley Cup Playoffs begin Saturday, and it would be nice to get the new coach involved on player assessments well ahead of the July 21 Expansion Draft. So here’s a rundown of the Kraken’s coaching candidates, divided into three groups: Francis connections, backup plans and longshots. NHL head coaching records are in parentheses.
Friends of Francis
Rod Brind’Amour (120-66-20 in three seasons with Carolina)
Brind’Amour coached the Hurricanes to the Eastern Conference finals in 2019, the conference semifinals in 2020 and first place in the Central Division this year. Carolina’s 80 points are tied with Vegas for most in the NHL through Tuesday night. He is the first Hurricanes coach to make three consecutive playoffs and is a front-runner for the Jack Adams Trophy as coach of the year. Yet, Carolina has bewilderingly dragged out negotiations on a contract extension and might lose him after this season.
Recent reports have the two sides getting closer to an agreement, and Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman has said Brind’Amour won’t re-sign unless his coaching and training staff also get new deals. But the longer these negotiations take, the chances increase for the Kraken to swoop in and land the best man for their job.
Brind’Amour was Francis’ teammate on the Hurricanes from 2000-01 to 2003-04 and succeeded Francis as Carolina’s captain. He was also an assistant coach for Carolina when Francis held various front office roles, including GM and director of hockey operations.
John Stevens (171-148-43 in seven seasons with Philadelphia and Los Angeles)
In his second season as head coach, Stevens took the Flyers to the 2008 Eastern Conference finals but hasn’t won a playoff round since.
As an assistant coach in L.A., Stevens helped the Kings win two Cups and became a highly sought-after head coaching candidate. After the Kings fired him from his head coaching duties early in the 2018-19 season, Stevens has been an assistant coach with the Dallas Stars for the past two seasons.
Stevens helped the Stars reach the Cup Finals last season, but they missed the playoffs this year. He’s been in charge of the forwards and the team’s 5-on-5 offense, which ranks 21st in the NHL with 101 goals.
Stevens was a member of the 1990-91 Hartford Whalers along with Francis.
Todd Nelson (17-25-9 in one season with Edmonton)
Nelson played only three NHL games, but one of them was alongside Francis on the 1991-92 Penguins.
After playing many years in the minor leagues, Nelson paid his dues coaching in the American Hockey League and United Hockey League. Nelson served as a head coach for eight seasons in the AHL, winning the Calder Cup championship in 2017 with the Grand Rapids Griffins.
His only NHL head coaching job was on an interim basis for the Oilers after Dallas Eakins was fired 31 games into the 2014-15 season.
Nelson just completed his third season as an assistant coach for the Dallas Stars where he works on the power play with fellow assistant Derek Laxdal. The Stars’ power play ranks fifth in the NHL (23.6 percent) this season.
Rick Tocchet (178-200-60 in six seasons with Tampa Bay and Arizona)
Tocchet was a formidable power forward in his playing days but hasn’t had close to the same success behind the bench. His only playoff appearance came during last year’s pandemic bubble where the Coyotes lost in five games to the Colorado Avalanche in the first round (though they beat the Nashville Predators in the play-in round).
Arizona dumped Tocchet on Sunday after four seasons. His reputation for what Friedman describes as “one of the best around at handling players that are not easy to reach” could get the attention of his former teammate on the 1992 Stanley Cup champions. Francis and Tocchet played together on the Pittsburgh Penguins from 1991-92 to 1993-94 and in juniors with The Soo.
Paul Maurice (761-670-125 – and 99 ties – in 23 seasons with Hartford/Carolina, Toronto and Winnipeg)
Winnipeg was cruising nicely through most of this season, but a recent slump that had the Jets losing nine out of their past 11 games raises questions about Maurice’s job security. A quick playoff exit against the potent Edmonton Oilers just might bring an end to Maurice’s eight-season run in Winnipeg.
Among active NHL coaches, only Tampa Bay’s Jon Cooper has been in his current job longer than Maurice. Fair or not, the shelf life of hockey coaches doesn’t last very long.
Maurice is well-respected around the league, has his players’ backs, and won’t have to wait long for a new job if he hits the market. He coached Carolina when Francis returned to play for the Hurricanes/Whalers organization from 1998-99 to 2003-04.
Francis and Vellucci were teammates on Hartford in 1987-88, and Vellucci served as assistant GM and director of player development in Francis’ front office with the Hurricanes from 2014 to 2017.
Plan B coaching options
Gerard Gallant (270-216-51 – and four ties – in nine seasons with Columbus, Florida and Vegas)
Gallant is high atop most everyone’s Kraken coaching list after he took the Golden Knights to the Stanley Cup Final in their first season.
Knowing how to squeeze the most out of a first-year expansion team is invaluable. But he’s been unemployed for a little more than a year. If the Kraken really valued and wanted Gallant, they could have landed him by now. Being perceived by some as unwelcoming toward analytics doesn’t help his case with the progressive-minded Kraken either.
Mike Babcock (700-418-164 – and 19 ties – in 17 seasons with Anaheim, Detroit and Toronto)
Winning a Stanley Cup with the Red Wings and two Olympic gold medals with Canada speak for themselves. But Babcock’s history of mind games and questionable treatment of some players can’t be brushed aside. That and the $5.875 million per year he’s being paid to not coach the Maple Leafs through 2022-23 will likely be tough obstacles to overcome.
Travis Green (123-130-31 in four seasons with Vancouver)
Green’s Canucks improved every season until a sudden regression had them miss the playoffs this year. Vancouver’s surprising run to the 2020 Western Conference semifinals was probably more indicative of Green’s abilities than this year’s COVID-19 train wreck. Green’s contract ends after this season, and the Canucks’ baffling indecisiveness in re-signing him could end up sending a rising coaching star to Seattle.
Bruce Boudreau (567-302-115 in 14 seasons with Washington, Anaheim and Minnesota)
In his favor, the longtime coach has never had a losing season in the NHL and worked with Kraken director of hockey strategy and research Alex Mandrycky in Minnesota. Boudreau hasn’t won a playoff round since 2015, however.
We’ll have to see if the Kraken want Boudreau.
Claude Julien (667-445-152 – and 10 ties – in 19 seasons with Montreal, New Jersey and Boston)
Julien won a Stanley Cup with the Bruins in 2011 and took them to the Cup Final again in 2013. But he hasn’t won a playoff round since 2014 and an emergency heart procedure caused Julien, 61, to miss part of the Canadiens’ 2020 postseason. Montreal fired him 18 games into this season after he couldn’t pull the team out of an early slump.
Rikard Gronborg
If the Kraken really like to do things differently, then hiring Gronborg would fit that model perfectly. The former national team coach for Sweden just completed his two-year deal with the ZSC Lions of the Swiss National League and reportedly has designs on landing an NHL job. New Jersey pursued him last year before hiring Lindy Ruff, and we can expect Gronborg’s name to be linked to more NHL coaching rumors.
Gronborg, who was an assistant coach for the WHL’s Spokane Chiefs in 2004-05, has won two World Championships and 16 medals for Sweden. It’s only a matter of time before he becomes the third European to coach in the NHL.
David Quinn (96-87-25 in three seasons with the New York Rangers)
Fresh off being fired Wednesday by the Rangers, Quinn should land a second chance somewhere after MSG chairman James Dolan got impatient with the team’s rebuild. Quinn’s background in college hockey (Boston University) sets him up better to work with younger players.
Longshots to be Kraken coach
John Tortorella (673-541-132 – and 37 ties – in 20 seasons with Tampa Bay, New York Rangers, Vancouver and Columbus)
Tortorella won a Stanley Cup with the Lightning and has had impressive results nearly everywhere he’s coached. But his old-school style and abrasiveness wouldn’t be a good fit in a new market. The Kraken coach needs to be on board for selling hockey to new fans, and Torts’ frequent condescending or curt responses to questions from the media won’t help.
Kirk Muller (80-80-27 in three seasons with Carolina)
In one of his first moves as Hurricanes GM in 2014, Francis fired Muller after he missed the playoffs for a third consecutive season. Have assistant and associate coaching gigs with St. Louis and Montreal since then made Muller better suited to lead an NHL team?
Dave Hakstol (134-101-42 in four seasons with Philadelphia)
Since he was fired by the Flyers, Hakstol has spent the past two seasons as an assistant coach with Toronto. He oversees penalty killing, which ranks 26th (79.9 percent) in the NHL. He never got out of the first round in two playoff appearances with the Flyers, but the former University of North Dakota coach could get another shot at a head coaching job in the NHL.
Hakstol and Francis worked together on Team Canada when Hakstol was an assistant for Alain Vigneault’s coaching staff at the 2019 World Championships.
Samuelsson first left the Kraken to become head coach of Leksands IF of the Swedish Hockey League in 2019-20. He previously coached MODO in Sweden for two seasons and was 39-29-8 as head coach of the Charlotte Checkers, Carolina’s AHL farm team, in 2016-17 when Francis was Hurricanes GM.
Francis has obviously aided Samuelsson’s coaching aspirations, but can the Kraken GM objectively determine if Samuelsson is ready to be an NHL head coach?
Jim Wilkie is a longtime Northwest journalist, former NHL editor and NHL Insider writer for ESPN.com, onetime GSHL All-Star, and SJHA hockey dad. Follow him on Twitter @jimwilkie.
Last week, James Mirtle of The Athleticmentioned that Chris Driedger is a goalie of interest for the Seattle Kraken. Mirtle is hardly the first person to mention Driedger’s name in the same sentence with the Kraken, but he was the first to reference “sources.” Driedger is having a good season as a platooning goalie for the Florida Panthers and will become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. This makes him an interesting candidate to be one of the inaugural season goalies for the Kraken.
My concern is Driedger has only seen limited action in the NHL and based on the small sample size, we might not have enough games to assess his long-term capabilities. When I think of older goalies with a small sample size, I immediately think of Scott Darling as a cautionary tale. Darling’s first 20-game season came when he was 26 years old.
Darling had two good seasons in Chicago as a platooning goalie over the 2015-16 and 2016-17 seasons. He then signed a lucrative four-year contract with the Carolina Hurricanes where he struggled mightily and played just 51 games over the next two seasons. His contract was eventually bought out after the second year of the contract. Worth noting, Seattle Kraken general manager Ron Francis was the one who signed Darling, and there’s no question that this deal has lived on in his memory.
For this week’s data dump, I want to look at how Driedger stacks up to comparable goalies that entered the league around the same age as he is now.
Sizing up Chris Driedger
Chris Driedger will be turning 27 years old next week with 37 career NHL games under his belt. This year he has played 22 games with a .923 save percentage, 2.17 goals against average, and a record of 13-6-3. Last year he split time between the NHL and AHL, and when playing with the big club performed well in his 12 NHL games. Driedger also played one game in each of 2014-15, 2015-16, and 2016-17 but remained in the minors for 2017-18 and 2018-19.
Goalie comparables
A goalie’s lifespan in the NHL is relatively short (that’s a post for another day). As such, coming into the league at 25+ years old is late in a goalie’s career. For the purpose of finding a sample of older goalies that entered the league late, I am going to isolate all netminders who were at least 25 years old at the start of their first season where they played at least 20 NHL games.
There were 33 goalies that fit this profile. Driedger has the highest career save percentage of the group, but that could be a bit misleading considering a lot of these players went on to create larger sample sizes and are either further along in their careers or are already out of the league. Naturally, goalie skill and therefore save percentage declines toward the end of a career.
Trends over time
Now that we have our comp list, let us try to visualize the trends of these goalies’ careers. First, we look at how many goalies would continue playing at least one game in the NHL after their first 20-game season.
Three goalies played 20+ NHL games in their first season and then none the very next season.
To put a finer point on it, let us look at the number of goalies that played at least 10 games in the subsequent seasons of the 33 comparable players.
The drop between year one and two does not seem material, but the drop in year three is significant. Only 36% of the 33 players would play 10 more NHL games just three seasons later. Given this information, any deal you sign with a goalie from this age group should have a limited term of under three years.
Adding save percentage
We will now add save percentage into the mix to see how well these goalies performed in the games played.
Now we can start to paint a picture of who was/is successful following their first season of 20 games or more. For some of the players that are still active, we may not have enough service time to get a true determination of whether they have been successful following their first 20-game season.
I went ahead and bucketed all 33 players into four categories:
Success
Ok
Cautionary tale
Too early to tell
This was completely subjective and was based on how many seasons the goalies played a minimum of 10 games, the number of games they played, and their save percentage.
Here is the count of goalies in each category.
If you strip out the “Too early to tell” group, only five out of the remaining 22 goalies were a success. More succinctly, only 23% of the goalies in this category are determined to be successful.
This analysis still lacks statistical context and goalie scout insights. The broader point is that with only 37 NHL games in his career, Driedger’s long-term success is not a slam dunk for Seattle and the team should proceed with caution, should they draft and sign him to a longer-term deal.
Let me know your thoughts. How would you predict Chris Driedger’s viability on being a No. 1 starter in the league?
