Led by exciting, young hockey stars such as Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes, the Vancouver Canucks look like they could be a dangerous team for many years to come. But Seattle has a chance to knock its geographic rival down a peg when the Kraken plucks one Canuck in the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft.
Thankfully for the Canucks (ranked No. 3 in The Athletic’s organizational rankings in September), they have some more good prospects – Nils Hoglander, Vasily Podkolzin, Jack Rathbone and Jett Woo – in the pipeline. Like Hughes, these youngsters won’t have to be protected in the Expansion Draft.
Hoglander is already making an impact early this season. Whether they’re ready or not, Podkolzin, Rathbone and Woo will probably be pressed into action in 2021-22 because of salary cap issues.
Although the Canucks will get some help from a number of expiring contracts, Pettersson and Hughes are in the final year of their entry level deals and will get huge raises. Canucks general manager Jim Benning needs to get those two deals locked up before summer because the pending restricted free agents will surely attract the rarely used offer sheets from other teams.
These all add intriguing twists to the Canucks’ new rivalry before we find out which club will conquer Cascadia in 2021-22. (And let’s be clear, it should be called the “I-5-BC-99 rivalry,” not the “I-5 rivalry.” We wouldn’t want any of you getting stuck in Blaine.)
Assumptions
Forwards Tanner Pearson, Brandon Sutter, Sven Baertschi, and Tyler Graovac and defensemen Alex Edler, Jordie Benn, Travis Hamonic, and Ashton Sautner are due to be unrestricted free agents this summer. Most of them won’t be back, and maybe none will be re-signed before new deals for Pettersson and Hughes are ironed out.
If their current roster holds, the Canucks will have trouble complying with the NHL’s minimum requirements for exposing players in the Expansion Draft. Each team must expose at least one defenseman and two forwards who are under contract in 2021-22 and will have each played at least 40 NHL games this season or will have played in at least 70 NHL games in the previous two seasons.
Even if the league adjusts those game totals to account for the two COVID-19 abbreviated campaigns, Vancouver will be forced to expose defenseman Tyler Myers unless it acquires another defenseman who meets the requirements or re-signs someone like Edler or Hamonic to an extension. Our guess is the Canucks will get another veteran blue-liner under contract through 2021-22 before the draft.
Vancouver Canucks protected list for Expansion Draft
Forwards
Elias Pettersson (Lock)
Brock Boeser (Lock)
Bo Horvat (Lock)
J.T. Miller (Lock)
Adam Gaudette
Jake Virtanen
Tyler Motte
Patience is running low on Virtanen, 24, but as of now he’s a more valuable asset to keep as a trade chip rather than losing him for nothing to Seattle.
Motte is a good penalty killer, works hard, blocks shots and has decent skills, as shown with his four goals last postseason. Despite being a bottom-six forward, he gives the Canucks excellent value ($1.225 million per year through 2021-22) that they won’t want to let get away without having someone ready to capably perform those roles.
Defense
Nate Schmidt (Lock)
Tyler Myers
Olli Juolevi
After Schmidt, predicting which other defensemen the Canucks protect gets a little iffy. Vancouver might protect unproven prospect Brogan Rafferty instead of Juolevi or Myers.
Juolevi is finally getting some NHL action after numerous injuries slowed the progress of the 2016 fifth overall draft pick. It’s not quite make-or-break time, but his performance and how much playing time he gets this season will determine where he fits into the Canucks’ future plans.
Myers is an important part of Vancouver’s blue line, averaging the third most minutes per game on the team last season when he also killed penalties and was on the second-unit power play. Based on his impact and 6-8 frame, he should be protected. The physically dominant Vegas Golden Knights wore down the Canucks in the Western Conference semifinals last year. With that in mind, the Canucks can’t afford to lose another defenseman with size, especially with the uncertain futures of Edler, Hamonic, and Benn.
But Myers is due to receive $6 million per season through 2023-24, so Vancouver could leave him unprotected in the hope that his contract deters the Kraken. The consolation for losing him will be freeing up a good chunk of cap space.
Goalie
Thatcher Demko (Lock)
Demko, 25, stepped in when former Canuck Jacob Markstrom was injured and nearly single-handedly upset the Golden Knights last postseason. That had Kraken fans optimistic the 6-4 San Diego native could be bound for Seattle. But those hopes were dashed when Markstrom signed a free agent contract with the Calgary Flames.
Vancouver Canucks targets for Expansion Draft
Forwards
Kole Lind
Zack MacEwen
Antoine Roussel
Lind, a 2017 second-round draft pick, has improved in the minors and will start this third pro season in Utica of the American Hockey League next month. Without the defensive attributes of Motte and with offensively gifted prospects Hoglander and Podkolzin ahead of him on the depth chart, Lind should be exposed.
MacEwen, 24, had five goals in 17 games last season and earned a spot on the Canucks fourth line this season because of his rugged, physical game. At 6-3 and 205 pounds, he’d be a project the Kraken should consider. Not star material, but the type of player who can help a team be difficult to play against.
Roussel is that type of player now: he’s a tough competitor and has underrated skills to go along with his grit. But at 31 and a year after coming back from major knee surgery, he’s wearing down and wouldn’t be a long-term option for the Kraken.
Defense
Brogan Rafferty
Jalen Chatfield
Rafferty, 25, is on the Canucks’ six-man taxi squad and the 6-0, 195-pound D-man has just two NHL games under his belt after three years at Quinnipiac University. His first pro season was impressive, scoring seven goals and 45 points in 57 games at Utica while making the AHL All-Rookie Team in 2019-20.
Chatfield, a 24-year-old rookie, made it onto the Canucks’ roster out of training camp but hasn’t yet made his NHL debut. He’s played three seasons in AHL Utica, where the 6-1, 188-pound blue-liner has made an impression with his strong skating and aggressiveness, not his scoring (two goals and 17 points in 142 games).
Unless the Canucks lose two core defensemen to injuries over an extended period of time, it’s doubtful Rafferty or Chatfield will get significant minutes in the NHL this season. Besides Rafferty and Chatfield’s stunted development from getting mostly practice time with the Canucks, the Kraken’s scouting staff will be hard-pressed to fully evaluate these two before the Expansion Draft.
Goalie
Braden Holtby
Holtby, 31, signed a two-year, $8.6 million contract with the Canucks last offseason after spending the previous 10 seasons with the Washington Capitals. Although his statistics have dipped a bit, his credentials are impeccable: 2015-16 Vezina Trophy, 2016-17 Jennings Trophy and the No. 1 goalie for the 2018 Stanley Cup champions.
A solid bounce-back season with the Canucks would likely mean Holtby and his tortoises will be headed back south this offseason.
Side deal scenarios
The quality of Canucks youngsters exempt from protection combined with pending UFAs will help Vancouver GM Jim Benning avoid much angst when he has to submit his Expansion Draft protection list. So there shouldn’t be any need for Benning to pursue any trades with Kraken GM Ron Francis, nor should we expect Francis to consider dealing any other Expansion Draft selections to his cross-border rival.
Neither GM will be doing any favors for the other just a couple of months before the Kraken’s inaugural season and the start of the I-5-BC-99 rivalry. It just rolls off the tongue, doesn’t it?
Previous Sound of Hockey Expansion Draft team previews
Jim Wilkie is a longtime Northwest journalist, former NHL editor and NHL Insider writer for ESPN.com, onetime GSHL All-Star, and SJHA hockey dad. Follow him on Twitter @jimwilkie.
A few days ago, we stepped through all the “Eastern Conference” teams (yes, we recognize there are no conferences this season) and identified some of the major storylines that could impact the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft in July.
Today, we look to the teams that typically play in the conference formally known as the Western Conference.
Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks added Kevin Shattenkirk this offseason, and if he plays to his expected level, Anaheim might be forced to protect four defensemen (Shattenkirk, Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindholm, and Josh Manson) in the Expansion Draft. This could expose Max Jones, Isac Lundestrom, and Adam Henrique.
Arizona Coyotes
Adin Hill (G) of the Arizona Coyotes
The best thing to come out of Arizona in the Expansion Draft will likely be a goalie —specifically, Adin Hill or Darcy Kuemper. The question is: do the Coyotes hold onto Kuemper or do they trade him before the Expansion Draft?
Kuemper was one of the top goalies in the league last year — his .928 save percentage was third in the NHL among goalies with at least 20 games played — so the thought of trading him seems a bit outrageous. However, the Coyotes are thin on draft picks and prospects after the Taylor Hall trade and the sanctions taken by the league last season for illegally working out prospects.
Calgary Flames
The burning question is if Milan Lucic will waive his no-move clause or not. If he does not waive his NMC, the Flames could expose Mikael Backlund and Sam Bennett which will create good options in the forward position. There is also a scenario where Lucic waives his no-move clause and Calgary subsequently offers draft picks to the Kraken to take Lucic and his $6 million dollar cap hit.
Chicago Blackhawks
Similar to Lucic’s situation in Calgary, the same can be asked about Brent Seabrook in Chicago. Will he waive his no-move clause for the Expansion Draft? If he does, this does not mean Seattle will take him. We are projecting Connor Murphy, Lucas Carlsson, and Calvin De Haan to all be exposed by Chicago, but if Seabrook waives his NMC, one of them will be protected. This question should be answered in April.
Colorado Avalanche
Tyson Jost #17 – Colorado Avalanche
Any uncertainty in Colorado surrounds pending UFAs Brandon Saad, Gabriel Landeskog, and to a lesser extent Philipp Grubauer. If any or all those players are signed to a contract extension before the Expansion Draft, they will be protected. Signing Saad and Landeskog will expose young center Tyson Jost, a name we have had circled for a while. Signing Grubauer would eliminate the opportunity for the Kraken to talk with him during the exclusive (to the Kraken) UFA discussion window before the expansion selections are due to the league. If they were to convince Grubauer to sign with Seattle, he would be the Kraken’s starting goalie in year one.
Dallas Stars
Dallas’ player pool is thin as far as the Expansion Draft. The ideal scenario is that veteran Stars, Anton Khudobin and Joe Pavelski, continue to play at a level beyond their age would suggest. They might create an opportunity for Seattle to select either of these players in the Expansion Draft and immediately trade them to another team that could use their veteran presence.
Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers’ approach to the protected list in the Expansion Draft hinges on Oscar Klefbom’s status. He is already out for the season, but it’s worth wondering if the Oilers will still protect him. If they do opt to protect him, it is a safe assumption that they will protect four defensemen (Ethan Bear, Darnell Nurse, Caleb Jones, & Klefbom) which will force them to only protect four forwards. This would most likely expose Jesse Puljujarvi and Tyler Benson. Whichever player of that duo shows the most promise this year would be a good candidate for the Kraken.
Los Angeles Kings
The biggest flier for the Seattle Kraken to consider off the LA Kings roster would be Lias Andersson. The road to the NHL for the No. 7 overall draft pick of the 2017 NHL Entry Draft has been anything but smooth. The change of scenery to LA might be just what he needs but there is no guarantee the Kings protect him. If Andersson shows promise this season, the Kings might feel the need to protect him in lieu of protecting Blake Lizotte or Austin Wagner.
Minnesota Wild
Matt Dumba has been rumored to be on the trading block all offseason. The Wild already possess three defensemen with no-move clauses that they are required to protect in the Expansion Draft. Protecting a fourth defenseman in Dumba would expose a young promising forward like Jordan Greenway. The general thought is that instead of losing him in the Expansion Draft, they trade him. A Dumba trade would greatly impact who is available for the Kraken.
Nashville Predators
Ryan Johansen’s productivity has dipped, and the 28-year-old center has not lived up to his $8 million cap hit. If Johansen sees another down year, there is a scenario where the Predators expose the former Portland Winterhawk. Even if he is exposed, it does not mean Seattle will necessarily select him in the Expansion Draft.
A bad year by Johansen could open the door for a possible side deal.
San Jose Sharks
There is speculation that San Jose might expose Brent Burns in the Expansion Draft, but the players I am keeping an eye on are Bonney Lake’s Dylan Gambrell and former Seattle Thunderbird Alexander True. Gambrell has a significant opportunity to establish himself as an everyday NHL forward while True, who is a year younger than Gambrell, might spend another season in the AHL. Both players will have a lot to prove regardless of where they play, and Ron Francis might consider taking one of these younger depth forwards for the Kraken.
St. Louis Blues
Vladimir Tarasenko was placed on long-term injured reserve and is going to be re-evaluated in May. That is pretty much the whole season. If Tarasenko does not play during this truncated campaign, the Blues could expose Tarasenko to dare Ron Francis to take a chance on the injury prone winger. Exposing him will enable St. Louis to protect Sammy Blais or Ivan Barbashev.
Vancouver Canucks
I have seen a lot of people penciling in Braden Holtby as the Seattle Kraken’s starting goalie in the inaugural season, but I am not so sure. Holtby will need to show significant improvement from his career worst .897 save percentage last year before Seattle considers selecting him out of Vancouver. Keep an eye on him this season.
Vegas Golden Knights
The Golden Knights are not participants in the Expansion Draft, but they could certainly be a major participant in the trade market that would impact other teams’ protected lists. Keep an eye on any big moves that involve Vegas.
Winnipeg Jets
The Jets have yet to re-sign restricted free agent and former first-round draft pick, Jack Roslovic. He was projected as a bubble protected/exposed player in the upcoming Expansion Draft, but now he could be on the move. No matter what, Roslovic’s status will impact the Expansion Draft scenarios coming out of Winnipeg.
The storm surges, the Bunch of Jerks t-shirts, and the snarky twitter feed all make the Carolina Hurricanes a fun team. But beyond all that, they happen to also be a good hockey team. After a nine-year absence from the playoffs, they’ve qualified the last two seasons and made a run to the conference finals in 2019. They have depth which means they will have a tough time protecting everyone from the Seattle Kraken at the NHL Expansion Draft.
Don Waddell is the general manager who will have to sort it out and make a tough choice because he’s going to lose a quality player. Seattle general manager Ron Francis is familiar with the Hurricanes roster. He drafted a number of these guys and it will be interesting to see which of his former players he brings to Seattle.
The Hurricanes have under a million dollars in cap space and have some important players who are going to be re-signed as both Andrei Svechnikov and Dougie Hamilton’s contacts expire after the coming season. Both of those players are key pieces and most likely will be re-signed, but that means Carolina will have to shed some salary, and the Expansion Draft could be a way to do so.
Assumptions
Svechnikov is a lock to be re-signed by the Hurricanes. He’s one of the brightest up-and-coming players in the NHL and for this exercise we’ll assume that he will be re-signed and protected. Hamilton is most likely in the same boat. There is a remote chance that Waddell could risk waiting to sign him until after the Expansion Draft. That would be interesting as Seattle would have the ability to negotiate him prior to the draft and the Hurricanes could end up losing him.
That scenario is unlikely however, so we’ll assume that Hamilton is not available to the Kraken.
Carolina Hurricanes Expansion Draft protected list
Forwards
The Hurricanes have a decision to make with former Portland Winterhawk Nino Niederreiter. He has two years left on a contract that earns him $5.4 million per season and that money could go towards re-signing other, more valuable players. Niederreiter, 28, didn’t produce last year, only scoring 11 goals. That’s a low number for a guy who’s perennially flirting with the 20-goal mark.
That doesn’t mean he’s done, however. Niederreiter posted one of his career-worst shooting percentages (9.6 %) and could rebound. He still drove play for the Hurricanes and was a 56-percent Corsi-for player, meaning Carolina typically benefited while he was on the ice. A rebound season is within reach for Niederreiter and if he does perform, he’ll play himself into protection.
What Waddell does with Niederreiter will impact the final forwards that the Carolina Hurricanes will protect for the Expansion Draft.
If they leave Niederreiter exposed, they will likely protect Jesper Fast. For our purposes here, we’ll protect Niederreiter but it will be a position to watch.
Hurricanes protected forwards
Sebastian Aho
Jordan Staal (NMC)
Andrei Svechnikov
Teuvo Teravainen
Warren Foegele
Vincent Trocheck
Nino Niederreiter
Defense
The Carolina Hurricanes blue line is the most intriguing area when it comes to looking at the Expansion Draft. Jacob Slavin is the one player in this group that is certain to be protected, but Carolina has a lot of depth here, which will benefit Seattle.
If Hamilton is re-signed he will also be a lock. However, if the Hurricanes don’t protect him then Jake Gardiner will join Brett Pesce as protected defenseman.
Hurricanes protected defensemen
Jacob Slavin
Brett Pesce
Jake Gardiner
Goalie
The Hurricanes return James Reimer and Petr Mrazek as the goalie tandem this season. Those two have left a lot to be desired and its surprising that Carolina did not add a goalie this offseason.
Entering the new season, Carolina has no goaltenders signed beyond 2020-2021. They will need to expose a goalie so obviously there are moves to make. Mrazek is the younger of the two returners so we’ll protect him here and wait to see who they add.
One long shot at being protected is youngster Alex Nedeljkovic. The 24-year-old has only six NHL games on his resume but has turned in four strong AHL seasons. If he continues, he might be an option to step up if both Reimer and Mrazek are let go.
Hurricanes protected goalie
Petr Mrazek
Carolina Hurricanes Expansion Draft targets
Forwards
Morgan Geekie
Jesper Fast
Nino Niederreiter (if left exposed)
Defense
Haydn Fleury
Jake Bean
Brady Skjei
Goalie
Alex Nedeljkovic
Thoughts
Defense feels like the best bet for Ron Francis and the Kraken here.
That being said, forward Morgan Geekie would be a quality pick. Francis drafted him when he was running the Hurricanes from the Tri-City Americans in the 2017 NHL Draft. Geekie, 22, was a late-season call-up this past year and shined. He scored three goals in two games and that came after a stellar 22-goal campaign in the AHL. He’s young, has promise, and Francis is familiar with him.
Francis is also familiar with his two best options on defense. Fleury, 24, was a first-round pick by Francis but has yet to have the impact you’d expect in a first rounder. Last year was his best in the NHL though, and if Francis still believes in him, he could be looking at a new situation with the Kraken.
Another Francis first-round pick is Jake Bean who could end up being the best play. Bean, who finished his WHL career in Tri-City, led AHL defensemen in scoring last season and if not for Carolina’s NHL depth at the blue line, he’d have already been up with the big club. He’s an offensive threat from the back end and in his two full AHL campaigns he’s put up 44 and 48 points. The upside is there, Francis knows him, and he’d be a valuable addition to the Seattle Kraken.
Side deal scenarios
If Niederreiter is left exposed, there could be a deal to be struck. Francis may prefer one of the defenders that Carolina has available, but if Waddell wants to unload Niederreiter’s contract he might be willing to give up something to do so. It is hard to see the Hurricanes offering both Niederreiter and a player in such a deal, but Francis might be able to get a high draft pick out of Carolina if he’s willing to take on Niederreiter’s salary. This would likely mean that Francis is OK passing on Bean or Fleury, though.
Calgary signed the best free agent goaltender available this past offseason, giving Jacob Markstrom a six-year, $36 million contract to leave division rival Vancouver. Markstrom, 30, bailed the Canucks out numerous times by stealing games and locking down leads while earning team MVP honors the past two seasons. He ranked second in the NHL with 20.16 goals saved (the net difference between the expected total goals allowed and the actual total goals allowed for all scoring chances faced by the goalie) last season, according to Clear Sight Analytics.
His elite play simply masks other deficiencies on his team, and the center position is one that will be under a microscope in Calgary this year. Sean Monahan and Mikael Backlund are good players who play big roles, but the Flames lack that superstar centerman associated with upper tier teams.
Missing the playoffs in the tight North Division – consisting of all the Canadian clubs – or losing in the first round for a third consecutive year will surely amplify the calls to trade star winger Johnny Gaudreau or Monahan. Any fallout from such a big trade will also alter what the Flames, who have just a little more than $223,000 in cap space as of Jan. 5, leave for the Kraken to choose.
Assumptions
Milan Lucic’s no-movement clause presents a big problem for Calgary general manager Brad Treliving. Lucic doesn’t deserve to be among the Flames’ seven protected forwards, possibly forcing the Flames to expose a good middle-six forward.
However, Lucic has waived his NMC before – in 2019 when the Edmonton Oilers traded him to the Flames. He could be convinced to waive it again, but what’s in it for him? Lucic holds some leverage despite his declining skills and production. We’d like to listen in on that conversation Treliving has with Lucic.
We’ll bet Lucic waives his NMC, and we will double down that Seattle won’t take him and his cap hit of $6 million per year through 2022-23.
Calgary Flames Protected List for Expansion Draft
Forwards
Matthew Tkachuk (Lock)
Johnny Gaudreau (Lock)
Sean Monahan (Lock)
Elias Lindholm (Lock)
Dillon Dubé
Sam Bennett
Andrew Mangiapane*
*Contingent upon Lucic waiving his NMC.
Mangiapane would be a good pick for Seattle if Lucic messes things up for Calgary and doesn’t waive his NMC. The 24-year-old notched 17 goals and 32 points in 68 games during his first full season with the Flames, so he’ll need to prove that wasn’t a fluke.
Bennett, 24, showed why he was taken fourth overall in the 2014 entry draft, playing a ferocious, hard-hitting style in the Edmonton playoff bubble. He needs to play more like playoff wrecking ball Sam (five goals and eight points in 10 games) instead of regular season passenger Sam (eight goals and 12 points in 52 games) to remain on this list.
Defense
Noah Hanifin (Lock)
Rasmus Andersson (Lock)
Chris Tanev
Useless fact: Tanev was a few rows in front of me at Night 1 of Pearl Jam’s 2018 “Home Shows” at the stadium formerly known as Safeco Field. How Seattle is that? He’s practically one of us, so it’s too bad the former Canucks blue-liner will likely be protected.
The Flames could still opt to protect Mark Giordano instead of Tanev, 31, who is six years younger and $2.25 million per year cheaper than Calgary’s captain.
Goalie
Jacob Markstrom (Lock, NMC)
Calgary Flames Targets for Expansion Draft
Forwards
Mikael Backlund
Glenn Gawdin
Calgary knows what it’s going to get with Backlund, who has had seasons of 47, 53, 45, 47 and 45 points in the past five years. That production is not likely to go up much now that he’s 31, so I can see Calgary protecting other forwards. However, Seattle would do pretty well to get a versatile center such as Backlund who can score in the 50-point neighborhood.
If you’re hoping Spokane native Derek Ryan heads Seattle’s way, it won’t be through the Expansion Draft. The 34-year-old center will be a free agent after this season.
Defense
Mark Giordano
Oliver Kylington
Giordano will be 39 when the 2021-22 season begins, so the Flames can take a chance they’ll lose their captain to the Kraken. Although Seattle would prefer to skew younger, getting this former Norris Trophy winner would bring a reliable veteran leader who should still be able to deliver a good all-around game and play both special teams.
Giordano will also have just one year left on his contract, reducing the risk for Seattle. As a result, he could be good trade bait at the 2022 deadline, and the Kraken will get $6.75 million in salary cap space freed up for free agents that summer.
Kylington, 23, presents a young and raw option for the Kraken. The 2015 second-round pick put up good numbers in four-plus AHL seasons, has scored five goals and 15 points in 87 NHL career games and is projected to be on Calgary’s third pairing this season.
Goalie
David Rittich
No other Flames goalie besides Markstrom is signed beyond this season, so they’ll need to get either Rittich, Tyler Parsons, Louis Domingue or Garret Sparks under contract through the end of the 2021-22 season to comply with Expansion Draft rules. Rittich, who will be an unrestricted free agent after this season, fumbled his chances to seize Calgary’s No. 1 job but is a decent backup.
The Kraken can do better to look elsewhere for a netminder in the Expansion Draft, especially with the Flames offering interesting choices at forward and defense.
Side Deal Scenarios
Let’s suppose Markstrom leads the Flames on a lengthy playoff run. Calgary might be tempted to keep the core group together, so Treliving would have to consider offering a prospect or draft pick to Kraken GM Ron Francis to steer him away from Giordano, Mangiapane or some trade deadline acquisition.
The Flames have some good, young talent on the horizon. Among them are three such prospects who have been playing recently at the World Junior Championship: Canadian forwards Jakob Pelletier and Connor Zary and U.S. and Everett Silvertips goalie Dustin Wolf. The Flames have all of their 2021 NHL Entry Draft picks except for a fourth-rounder. Calgary also has Edmonton’s third-round pick.
Just sayin’.
Previous Sound of Hockey Expansion Draft team previews
Jim Wilkie is a longtime Northwest journalist, former NHL editor and NHL Insider writer for ESPN.com, onetime GSHL All-Star, and SJHA hockey dad. Follow him on Twitter @jimwilkie.
The Blackhawks are probably not going to be particularly good this season. A team already in full re-build mode, Chicago has been dealt a series of maladies that will leave it without its captain, Jonathan Toews, and without two of its up-and-coming young players, Kirby Dach and Alexander Nylander, for the foreseeable future. But how does all this affect the plan for the Chicago Blackhawks in the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft?
Well, it doesn’t. Nylander will return in time for the Expansion Draft and will be protected, Dach is exempt, and Toews has a no-movement clause. As far as Expansion is concerned, there’s no impact, but as far as the Blackhawks are concerned, this could be a tough season.
Chicago did surprisingly make it into the postseason bubble in 2019-2020. In fact, it even got through the best-of-five qualifying round with a 3-1 series win over the Oilers before being quickly dispatched by the Golden Knights in the first round of the real playoffs.
Notably, the Blackhawks—despite their core group of remaining veterans from the Stanley Cup teams of yore—were the youngest team to make it into the bubble. So, there’s some hope for the future.
But with the recent news that Toews is dealing with a mysterious medical issue and with the departure of Corey Crawford, there’s just no way that this team contends for at least a couple of years, barring some miraculous signings and trades.
While there may be some real talent to select from Chicago, there are no obvious cornerstone pieces that will be available. So, here’s hoping the Kraken can uncover a diamond in the youthful rough.
Assumptions
The big question is whether or not Brent Seabrook—who will almost certainly be asked to waive his no-movement clause—will actually waive his no-movement clause. If he were to agree to waive it, being that the Kraken wouldn’t touch his contract with a 10-foot hockey stick, it would allow Chicago to protect an extra player.
We will assume for the sake of this exercise that Seabrook will not waive his no-movement clause, and he will have to be protected by the Chicago Blackhawks in the Expansion Draft.
Chicago Blackhawks Protected List for Expansion Draft
Forwards
Patrick Kane (Lock, NMC)
Jonathan Toews (Lock, NMC)
Alex DeBrincat (Lock)
Dylan Strome
Alex Nylander
David Kampf
Lucas Wallmark
The thing about the Blackhawks forward group is that there isn’t a super obvious way to decide on which guys to choose in the last couple of protection slots. General manager Stan Bowman could go in a variety of directions, including exposing Kampf—who only had eight goals and eight assists last season but played all 70 games—in favor of, say, Brandon Hagel. Hagel has only played one career NHL game, but is still only 22 years old and posted 19 goals and 12 assists in 59 games with the Rockford IceHogs.
Defensemen
Duncan Keith (Lock, NMC)
Brent Seabrook (Lock, NMC – unless he agrees to waive his NMC to help the team)
Nikita Zadorov
As we mentioned in the assumptions, there is a chance Bowman will be able to get Seabrook to waive his NMC, in which case the ’Hawks would be able to protect either Connor Murphy or Lucas Carlsson.
Goalie
Collin Delia
The Blackhawks also have Malcolm Subban and Kevin Lankinen, but unless one of the three netminders emerges in mythical fashion this season, then move along, as there’s nothing to see here.
Chicago Blackhawks Targets for Expansion Draft
Forwards
Hagel is intriguing, just because of his age and the fact that he’s been a productive AHL player on the verge of becoming a regular NHLer. There is definitely a chance that he will be protected by Chicago, though, so his consideration for the Kraken could end up moot. If Hagel is protected and Kampf is exposed, then Kampf would be worth at least considering.
Defensemen
The play for Seattle is likely on the blue line. Connor Murphy, 27, has proven himself a reliable NHL defenseman. He doesn’t score many goals, but he does chip in anywhere from 15 to 20 points per season.
Another option could be Lucas Carlsson, a 23-year-old blue liner who has yet to solidify an NHL role. The Swedish defenseman played six games for the Blackhawks last season, but has put up good numbers with AHL Rockford over the past two seasons, and is certainly knocking on the door of the highest level.
Side Deal Scenarios
There’s no question that Bowman would love to get out of Seabrook’s contract, but it runs until 2024 at a cap hit of $6.875 million annually with a no-movement clause. We just can’t come up with a scenario in which Chicago is able to sweeten the pot enough to make Seattle Kraken GM Ron Francis take that on.
The Chicago Blackhawks are poised to lose just one replaceable player in the Seattle Expansion Draft and will have more cap space after this season. So, side deals seem less likely here than with contending teams.
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at Sound Of Hockey and the host, producer, and editor of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is an inconsistent beer league goalie who believes that five players have to make a mistake before the puck gets to him. Follow him on Twitter @DarrenFunBrown or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
The Montreal Canadiens face some tough decisions on who to expose in the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft.
The Habs have been stuck in a lull lately having missed the playoffs three out of the four seasons prior to the 2019-20 campaign. They benefited from the expanded structure of the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs as the last team added to the 24-team field. They (sort of) took advantage of the opportunity by knocking off the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Qualifying Round before being eliminated by the Philadelphia Flyers in the First Round.
After their eventual playoff exit, the Canadiens may have still looked a few years away from pushing their chips into the center of the table for a chance to compete for a Stanley Cup. However, based on his offseason roster moves, it appears general manager Marc Bergevin has a different opinion.
The Canadiens had one of the most active offseasons out of any team in the league and added significant contributors to each position.
Even before the Stanley Cup had been raised, they had already traded a third- and seventh-round draft pick to the St. Louis Blues for goalie Jake Allen. A week or two later Montreal sent a fifth-round pick to Carolina for the rights to defenseman Joel Edmundson and signed him to a four-year deal.
Then, right before the 2020 NHL Entry Draft, Montreal traded point-producing center Max Domi to the Columbus Blue Jackets for talented winger Josh Anderson and promptly signed Anderson to a seven-year deal.
As if that was not enough, the Habs signed highly coveted unrestricted free agent forward Tyler Toffoli to a four-year deal.
These moves indicate that the Canadiens believe they are ready to compete. With the Expansion Draft looming, they will need to be smart to not let any of their key assets go to the Kraken.
Assumptions
The Canadiens have three significant players that are currently slated to become unrestricted free agents at the end of the 2020-21 season. Tomas Tatar (22G), Joel Armia (16G), and Phillip Danault (13G) together accounted for close to 25% of the Canadiens’ goals during the 2019-20 regular season and all will be in the last year of their respective contracts.
You can imagine that Bergevin signs at least two of them to extensions before the end of the season. A case can be made for any different combination of the three, but for now we are going to assume that two of them re-sign, specifically Tatar and Armia, while Danault hits free agency.
Our only logic for this assumption is that the Canadiens have more up-and-coming depth at center. Nick Suzuki and Jesperi Kotkaniemi are clearly the centers of the future, if not the present. Letting Danault walk for free agency will provide the space for the younger generation, both in playing time and salary.
Protected List
There is a scenario where Montreal could go with the less common eight total skaters and one goalie selection as opposed to the 7F-3D-1G option, but we project the 7-3-1.
Forwards
Brendan Gallagher (Lock-NMC)
Jesperi Kotkaniemi (Lock)
Tyler Toffoli (Almost Lock)
Josh Anderson (Almost Lock)
Artturi Lehkonen
Tomas Tatar
Joel Armia
Again, this assumes Tatar and Armia sign extensions before the Expansion Draft. If only one re-signs, you can add Jonathan Drouin to the list of protected forwards.
Defense
Jeff Petry
Joel Edmundson
Ben Chiarot
Astute hockey fans will realize there is one significant name not on this list of protected players: Shea Weber.
Weber tied for fourth in goals scored by defensemen during the 2019-2020 NHL regular season. Weber is an elite NHL defenseman, but he will be 36 years old by the time the Seattle Kraken take the ice and will have four more seasons left on his $7.8M/year deal. Inevitably, his value will erode and Montreal could take the chance that Ron Francis disregards Weber in an attempt to build a team for the future.
Goalie
Carey Price (Lock-NMC)
We know this will disappoint Tri-City American fans, but Carey Price has a full no-movement clause and must be protected per the rules of the Expansion Draft.
Top Montreal Canadiens Expansion Draft Candidates
Forwards
Jonathan Drouin
Phillip Danault
Defense
Shea Weber
Victor Mete
Cale Fleury
Goalie
Jake Allen
If the Montreal Canadiens protected list for the Expansion Draft plays out this way exactly, then Seattle will have options at all positions. The first step might be to see if a deal can be reached for Danault during the 48-hour period when Seattle is allowed to talk to free agents exclusively.
If Danault is not interested in signing with Seattle, there are still plenty of other options. A case can be made for all the players listed above, including Allen, who could be targeted as a starter in Seattle or part of a 1a/1b combo, depending on who else is available.
Fleury and Mete could provide younger options at defense should the Kraken want a more youthful look on the blue line.
Side Deal Scenarios
The Canadiens signaled that they are trying to take a major step toward being a contender for a Stanley Cup run in the next few years. If this step works, the organization may want to keep the core intact and not lose a significant piece of their team to Seattle in the Expansion Draft.
There will be some good assets available from the Montreal Canadiens for Seattle in the Expansion Draft. Montreal might want to steer the Kraken’s selection in a certain direction by adding a prospect or draft pick to avoid losing specific assets.
