One of the important decisions for the immediate, and perhaps the long-standing future of the Seattle Kraken, is what it decides to do at goalie during the Expansion Draft. Sound Of Hockey’s Darren Brown speculated on which goalies the Kraken may be linked to recently. Based on Seattle devoting a great number of front-office hires to assemble a robust analytics team, a statistical approach will almost certainly be considered when choosing any player in the Expansion Draft, including goaltenders. But for the Seattle Kraken, what goalie analytics even exist?
With a deeper breadth of data available, the Kraken’s front office will have a more complete data set than the public. But that doesn’t mean the public can’t take a look at what may be available through an analytical lens.
In a way, goaltenders are akin to starting pitchers in baseball in how they’re evaluated. Some people evaluate goalies and pitchers solely on wins. No matter how many goals a netminder gives up, a team win is all that matters.
But any person that thinks the game with a crumble of analytics will tell you this stat is not even emblematic of a goaltender’s performance. This is a very old-school approach to thinking about sports and especially hockey where there are so many variables that go into the outcome of a game.
The same goes for goals-against average (GAA), which is a slightly more sophisticated stat, but not by much. It’s similar to ERA (earned-run average) for pitchers in baseball, but really, it’s even worse. The goalie isn’t solely responsible for every single goal a team gives up, because not every shot is created equal; even the best NHL goaltenders won’t perform well if they’re facing many high-danger chances every night.
(Say it with us, folks: “Goals Against Average is a Team Stat!”)
Things get slightly more specific with save percentage, which provides a more comprehensive look at a goaltender’s efficacy, but there’s still quite a bit missing. It’s a stat that requires a large sample size to have substantial value and can be misleading because not all saves carry the same degree of difficulty. Also, some teams allow a lot of shots and some teams don’t allow many shots, which really influences percentages especially when dealing with small sample sizes. .
Some stats go beyond the “traditional” metrics that aren’t all that difficult to understand.
“Advanced” Goaltender Stats to Consider:
First, there’s GSAA, which stands for Goals Saved Above Average. This stat takes into account the league’s average save percentage and then applies it to the actual number of shots a goaltender has saved. In theory, it demonstrates how many goals a netminder would save compared to a replacement-level goaltender – for baseball fans, this stat is conceptually similar to the WAR (Wins Above Replacement) stat in baseball. This stat has its flaws, however, because it lacks some key context and assumes every shot a goaltender saves is equal, which we know isn’t accurate, and it benefits goaltenders with the most games played. Rating this stat out per 60 minutes (the length of an NHL game) is the best way to determine how a goalie is performing on a game-to-game basis.
There is also GSAx from the website “Evolving Hockey”, which stands for Goals Saved Above Expected and provides a bit more uniformity and specificity. It draws from Evolving Hockey’s expected goal model, so it takes into account how difficult, in theory, a shot was that a goaltender saved. This stat is also best when rated out per 60 minutes.
dFSv%, a stat also found on Evolving Hockey that stands for “Difference (or delta) in Fenwick Save percentage,” is another good one to use. Fenwick, for those that aren’t aware, is a stat that is essentially a fancier way of saying “unblocked shot.” Evolving Hockey’s expected goal model calculates an expected save percentage and demonstrates the difference.
HDSV%, MDSV%, and LDSV% – which stand for high-danger, medium-danger, and low-danger save percentage, respectively – are also useful stats. They measure exactly what they sound like. High-danger shots have an expected shooting percentage of over nine percent, medium-danger shots have an expected shooting percentage between three and nine percent, and low-danger shots have an expected shooting percentage below three percent.
Quality starts, a stat available by Hockey-Reference.com, count how many times a goalie posts a save percentage in a game that’s above the league average for save percentage. A quality start can also be earned by saving over 88.5 percent of shots in a game with 20 or fewer shots on goal. When a goaltender secures a quality start, their team has about a 75 percent chance of winning, according to HockeyReference.
Quality Starts % (QS%) is also available and is a great barometer into how a specific goalie is performing. A quality start percentage above 53 percent is considered above average, over 60 percent is considered excellent, and under 50 percent is considered below average.
Here’s how many of the goalie targets most connected to Seattle stack up in these metrics.
Maybe somewhat surprisingly, players like Arizona’s Antti Raanta and Adin Hill and Montreal’s Jake Allen rate out favorably, while more well-known goaltenders like Vancouver’s Braden Holtby and Ottawa’s Matt Murray do not.
But unfortunately, goaltender analysis — at least currently — is steps behind the analytical data that we have for players, and it’s not always fair to compare goalies to one another.
The Wild, Wild West of Analytics
The issue isn’t that there aren’t bright people evaluating goaltenders.
There’s just a dearth of public and, more importantly, reliable data to draw from.
“We have to be very, very careful with goaltending analytics,” said Alison Lukan, a prominent hockey analytics writer who currently writes for 1st Ohio Battery, a Columbus Blue Jackets’ site. “It’s probably the weakest part of the game in terms of us understanding it and properly evaluating it.”
The only publicly available data is via the National Hockey League, and sometimes, there’s missing context, especially when it comes to goaltending.
“We have to be very, very careful with goaltending analytics,” said Alison Lukan, a prominent hockey analytics writer who currently writes for 1st Ohio Battery, a Columbus Blue Jackets’ site. “It’s probably the weakest part of the game in terms of us understanding it and properly evaluating it.”
“A lot of the publicly available data is wildly inconsistent when it comes to goaltending,” said Catherine Silverman, a hockey writer who is well-known for her goaltender analysis. “… The save percentages, the high-danger save percentages, the stuff like that, is a little suspect at times.”
A lot of the popular analytics websites, such as Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick, scrape data from the league website, which isn’t as precise as the private data the 31 current NHL teams are using to draw conclusions.
This is highly problematic considering how many metrics hinge on where on the ice a shot on goal was taken and how the shot was created.
“I always tell people that the first thing to know is that the data is going to be a little suspect at times,” Silverman said. “We’re in the infancy of goaltending analytics because it’s really the last position to be delved into from an analytical level at a deep level. It’s still very behind what you get from forwards and defenders.
What’s more, the lion’s share of goaltender analytics doesn’t take into account these key questions: Was the goalie screened? Was the shot off a rebound? Was the goalie moving laterally and what was their depth in net?
“You can still look at that data, flawed or not, to look at an individual goaltender throughout the course of a season,” Silverman said. “See how their numbers are going up and down, see how much they’re fluctuating, see what they’re looking at year-to-year as long as they’re with the same team. You can use it for personal growth and improvement and you can use it for consistency, but it’s hard to use it to compare players because the data coming from each arena isn’t always consistent.”
There are many private companies, such as Clearsite or SportLogic, that can evaluate those aforementioned considerations, but that data is typically only available for the 31 franchises in the league.
What’s Next
Puck and player tracking is expected to roll out any year now, but it’s unclear how much will be made publicly available by the NHL.
That’s the only way to remove the “noise” from many of the goaltending stats people are referencing and compare goalies to each other fairly.
“Until we get standardized puck-tracking, whether it’s through chips in the pucks or technology in all the rinks, goaltending analytics can’t take the step forward that it needs to,” Silverman said. “We truly need that locational data for shots, we need to know who is facing shots that are being blocked, who’s facing them while being screened, who’s facing them from crazy angles.”
Right now, that sort of data is mostly being manually tracked, which is quite arduous and subject to the “eye-test.”
Like any hockey statistic, goaltending analytics are best applied in harmony with live scouting. But for the common hockey fan, these aforementioned metrics can provide a better understanding of how effective goaltenders are through observations we aren’t able to see.
Striking the perfect balance may determine how successful the Kraken are in 2021-22.
Josh Horton is a freelance writer, former newspaper journalist, and former Western Hockey League writer for the Everett Herald and The Spokesman-Review (Spokane). He is NOT a juggler, nor is he a former professional baseball player. Follow him on Twitter @byjoshhorton.
For a team – and a fanbase – that fancies itself as a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, the Toronto Maple Leafs aren’t exactly gushing with the sort of quality depth that will excite the Seattle Kraken in the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft.
At least not yet anyway.
Toronto’s core four of highly talented and highly paid forwards – Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner and William Nylander – eat up 49.7 percent of its 2020-2021 salary cap space, leaving the rest to be spread creatively among the remaining 19 roster players. Defensemen Jake Muzzin, Morgan Rielly, and T.J. Brodie and goaltender Frederik Andersen bite off another $20.625 million, causing Leafs Nation and management a lot of wishful thinking and finger-crossing over the rest of the roster.
Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas has kept kicking the salary cap can down the road to the point where he’s skating a thin line in this COVID-19 flat cap market. This means it will be interesting to see how Kraken GM – and one-time Maple Leaf – Ron Francis can exploit this in the Seattle Expansion Draft.
Toronto didn’t make it past the play-in round in 2020 and was eliminated in the first round of the playoffs three years before that. In the upcoming abbreviated season the Leafs will escape the brutally tough Atlantic Division for the intriguing and perhaps equally competitive, pandemic-created Canadian Division.
Under the superheated local and national spotlight of living up to Toronto’s Cup contender status, any short-sighted moves in 2021 will only give the Kraken better options when they evaluate the Maple Leafs’ list of exposed players.
Assumptions
In addition to his core four, Dubas has filled out his roster with many pending unrestricted free agents up front. As a result, this shrewdly gives him some salary cap flexibility while not presenting great forward options for the Kraken Expansion Draft.
However, Dubas has painted himself into a corner a little. He will have to re-sign one or two of those pending UFAs or acquire another forward or two to meet the NHL’s Expansion Draft requirements of exposing at least “two forwards who are a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played at least 40 NHL games the prior season or played in at least 70 NHL games in the prior two seasons.”
After the seven forwards identified below for protection, only Joey Anderson, Denis Malgin and Adam Brooks are signed beyond this season. None of them appear likely to play 40 games this season. And only Malgin, who played 44 last season, has a reasonable shot at reaching the 70-game, two-season mark. Anderson played 18 NHL games and Brooks played seven last season.
It’s pretty safe to assume the Leafs will make some trades before the midseason deadline, so any new forwards with term left on their contracts could be exposed or push some current players off the preliminary list below. We’ve compiled a protection list with the seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie scenario. But if the Leafs can’t lock up more forwards by draft time, they’ll have to go with the eight skaters and one goalie option that allows them to protect four defensemen.
Offseason Wildcards
Toronto is over the cap limit by more than $1 million as of Dec. 13, 2020, so it has some juggling to do before the season starts. Don’t expect that maneuvering to result in the addition of a significant player, however.
Maple Leafs Protected List
Forwards
Auston Matthews (Lock)
Mitch Marner (Lock)
John Tavares (Lock, NMC)
William Nylander (Lock)
Zach Hyman (Lock)
Alex Kerfoot
Pierre Engvall
Kerfoot and Engvall are on the bubble and could be exposed if Toronto obtains quality players worth protecting or other Leafs surpass them on the depth chart. Kerfoot will have a year and $3.5 million remaining on his contract next offseason. They might take a chance by leaving him exposed and protect someone else.
Defense
Morgan Rielly (Lock)
Jake Muzzin (Lock)
T.J. Brodie
Toronto just signed Brodie to a four-year, $20 million free agent contract, so he’s as good as a lock if he lives up to earning that salary. Otherwise the Leafs could leave him exposed in favor of protecting another defenseman, such as Justin Holl or Travis Dermott. And if the Leafs lose Brodie, it will at least free up some cap space.
Goaltender
Frederik Andersen (UFA)
Andersen, Toronto’s No. 1 goalie, will be an unrestricted free agent after this season. As a result, the Leafs will have a big decision on who will be their top netminder in 2021-22. Do they re-sign Andersen or use the $5 million in cap space to find a replacement via trade or free agency?
The pressure is on Andersen, 31, to have a strong contract year after an inconsistent postseason and the worst regular season numbers of his seven years in the NHL. He’s better than his 2.85 GAA and .909 save percentage showed, but his regular season 5-on-5 save percentage fell to .914 after seasons of .927, .924 and .928. We’re guessing Toronto will re-sign the big Dane and protect him.
Kraken Expansion Draft Players
Forwards
Joey Anderson
Adam Brooks
Denis Malgin
Jimmy Vesey (UFA)
Wayne Simmonds (UFA)
Anderson, Brooks and Malgin are depth players who will be fighting for roster spots this season. Whomever doesn’t make the cut will end up in the purgatory of an expanded roster taxi squad or dealing with whatever happens with the AHL Toronto Marlies’ schedule.
Anderson, 22, Brooks, 24, and Malgin, 23, have all performed well in the minors, so they’re at pivotal career moments to prove themselves. Only Malgin has spent more time recently in the NHL than the AHL. The native of Switzerland will also be the sharpest when training camp starts after being on loan to Swiss club Lausanne HC where he has notched eight goals and 12 points in 12 games this season.
Vesey and Simmonds were signed this past offseason to low-cost free agent contracts and are listed here in case they re-sign before the draft.
Simmonds is 32 and slowing down since he was a 50- to 60-point man in his peak years. But he always seems to be in trade rumors and was dealt before the past two deadlines. He could be a tough, grinding veteran option who might later be trade bait if the Kraken aren’t in playoff contention in Year 1.
Vesey, 27, is out to prove he can live up to the hype he had when he left Harvard. And the Kraken will be watching how he plays with his head ablaze.
If the aforementioned eligibility crunch drops Engvall, 24, onto the unprotected list, the 6-5 and 214-pound Swede would be an attractive option for the Kraken. He has speed, size and ability to play special teams that could see him blossom with increased opportunities.
Defense
Travis Dermott
Justin Holl
Zach Bogosian (UFA)
Here’s where the Kraken have some decent choices. Holl, 28, has been entrusted with more ice time and shut-down duties, but Dermott, 23, is more mobile and has better offensive potential.
Travis Dermott and Justin Holl had a night to remember during a 2018 game against the Islanders. Both scored their first NHL goals with their dads in the stands. #LeafsForeverpic.twitter.com/j4IV6ZO3NU
Fresh off helping the Tampa Bay Lightning win a Stanley Cup, Bogosian showed he still has more left in the tank. The 30-year-old could be an option if the Leafs re-sign him and feel the need to work a side deal with the Kraken.
Goalie
Jack Campbell
Campbell, the 11th overall pick in the 2010 entry draft, will have a reasonable $1.65 million and one year left on his contract before the Kraken Expansion Draft. This season’s compressed schedule should give Campbell more games to show whether he can push to be a No. 1 goalie.
Side Deal Scenarios
Dubas might want to steer Francis away from Holl and/or Dermott if they have good seasons and become important parts of the Leafs blue line in the team’s long and arduous chase for their first Stanley Cup since 1967.
If that plays out, Francis could turn his attention to one of those pending UFA veterans such as Simmonds, Vesey or Bogosian. To make this happen, the Leafs still have their first, second, fourth, fifth and sixth 2021 entry draft picks. Remember, Toronto traded its 2020 first-round pick to rid itself of former Seattle Thunderbird Patrick Marleau’s contract.
Other Notes
At least the options for the Kraken appear better than 2017 when the Vegas Golden Knights were building their inaugural lineup. Vegas did as well as could be hoped with what the rebuilding Leafs, having just made the playoffs for the first time in four years, left unprotected.
After a strong AHL season, forward Brendan Leipsic was a bottom-six energy guy who has since bounced from the Golden Knights to the Vancouver Canucks, Los Angeles Kings and Washington Capitals before he texted himself out of the league earlier this year.
Previous Sound of Hockey Expansion Draft team previews
Jim Wilkie is a longtime Northwest journalist, former NHL editor and NHL Insider writer for ESPN.com, a onetime GSHL All-Star, and SJHA hockey dad. Follow him on Twitter @jimwilkie.
It feels like a lifetime – because time has become a flat circle – but in reality, it was just two December 4th’s ago when hundreds of hockey fans packed into Henry’s Tavern in South Lake Union neighborhood of Seattle. It was early in the morning and it was cold, but the excitement and free “Return to Hockey” beanies kept everyone warm.
December 4th, 2018 was the date that NHL commissioner Gary Bettman made it official. Seattle was getting an NHL franchise.
It was a while before the team would be named the Kraken, but on that day, the NHL Seattle organization announced itself to the broader sporting world, and Seattle indicated that it was ready to become a hockey city.
The Seattle Kraken organization celebrated its second birthday Friday by officially changing its Twitter handle from the awkward @NHLSeattle_ to the more natural @SeattleKraken. Oh, and they got one of those cakes that doesn’t look like a cake until somebody cuts into it.
🎉 HBD to us! 🎉
this year we gave ourselves the best gift we could think of – a new twitter handle. so go ahead and @ us with those bday messages. 🥳 pic.twitter.com/PvqfSvaQi6
The change in Twitter handle wasn’t the only new moniker visible in Krakenworld this week.
On Saturday, two guys apparently named Scott and Doug were busy airlifting new Climate Pledge Arena signage to the apex of the historic roof of the Seattle Center venue.
After the hockey world collectively freaked out over the NHL and NHLPA allegedly not talking to each other during [checks notes] Thanksgiving week, it appears things are looking up on a return to play plan. Earlier this week, Elliotte Friedman broke down what he was hearing on the latest movement on the NHL’s plan.
.@FriedgeHNIC with the latest on talks between the #NHL and its players, including how he's hearing January 15th is a possible season start date.
Players could report to NHL Training Camps in late December or early January
Estimated return to play ~January 15th
Season should be somewhere in the range of 52 to 56 games
Playoffs would begin early May and roll through early July
As the saying goes, Keep Calm and Carry On.
The less we hear about this the better because it would indicate that both sides are talking with each other instead of trying to negotiate in public. Signs are indicating that there could be a deal in the next week.
World Junior Championship Updates
Prior to the abbreviated NHL season, we are expecting to see the World Junior Championship played in an Edmonton bubble beginning on Christmas Day and running through January 5th.
With the delay to the season, many in the hockey world were hoping to see some of the NHL players that are still young enough for the WJC take part in the tournament. Chicago’s Kirby Dach, for example, participated in Canada’s selection camp, and is expected to play a huge role for his country. Dach looked like a man amongst boys in Red/White scrimmages.
Check out Kirby Dach with a spectacular kick pass at Hockey Canada World Junior Camp! pic.twitter.com/orbhQNyQYY
On the flip side, 2019’s No. 1 overall Draft pick, Jack Hughes, will not be released by the New Jersey Devils to play for Team USA, and the New York Rangers also announced this week that they will not allow Alexis Lafreniere to take part. Nick Robertson will be allowed by the Toronto Maple Leafs to participate if NHL Training Camps have not yet started.
Here’s an interesting item to keep an eye on over the next few days, as per Best Friend of the Pod, Chris Peters:
Hoping for the best for William Eklund after positive test. He would have been a key offensive threat for Sweden. Meanwhile, this is a reminder that this week is the most critical for teams preparing for WJC as they open their camps. Positive tests now prevent entry to Canada.
Greg Wyshynski from ESPN+ (paywall) had a great column on the Angry Beaver’s roller coaster ride and the dire straits the bar is in now.
Seattle Women’s Hockey Club (a wonderful organization that has been growing and fostering hockey for a long time in the region) launched their annual fundraiser auction with plenty of items for hockey fans (pssst…there are deals to be had here).
Beyond the Sound
NCHC started back up this week in an Omaha-based bubble, and Friday’s game featuring #1-ranked North Dakota vs #4 Denver was a real barnburner. The back-and-forth battle ended with this banger of a game winner by UND’s Jordan Kawaguchi.
Finally, a strange tale played out very quickly on #HockeyTwitter Friday.
The Vancouver Sun published a story that long-time Canucks anthem singer, Mark Donnelly, was planning to sing O Canada at a rally against Covid-19 restrictions.
Canucks owner, Francesco Aquilini, quickly made it clear that he did not agree with Donnelly’s decision to support such an event. Aquilini apparently canned the tenor via social media with a single re-tweet of the Vancouver Sun’s story.
While we certainly don’t agree with Donnelly’s stance on wearing masks (or… apparently… not wearing masks), we will forever be grateful to him for giving us one of the funniest hockey videos of all time.
Fare thee well, Mark Donnelly. Please watch where you’re skating.
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at Sound Of Hockey and the host, producer, and editor of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is an inconsistent beer league goalie who believes that five players have to make a mistake before the puck gets to him. Follow him on Twitter @DarrenFunBrown or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
Of all the teams we’ve reviewed at Sound Of Hockey thus far, the Winnipeg Jets may present the best assortment of NHL-ready players for the Seattle Kraken in the 2021 Expansion Draft.
But who knows what might change between then and now?
A promising outlook for the Jets to start the 2019-20 season culminated with a loss to Calgary in the play-in round in the NHL’s Edmonton playoff bubble and a puzzling journey along the way.
Despite Connor Hellebuyck winning the Vezina Trophy this season, poor play in front of him and a rash of injuries led the Jets to a ninth-place finish in the Western Conference by point percentage. In the end, Winnipeg was dismissed in the play-in round, a quick and disappointing ousting.
Through it all, Winnipeg still boasts an impressive core of forwards to choose from for Seattle, as well as a couple of intriguing young defensemen.
Assumptions
Winnipeg almost certainly will protect seven forwards, three defensemen, and one goalie from the Seattle Expansion Draft.
Forward Adam Lowry is also an unrestricted free agent in 2021 and is a prime candidate to be protected if he’s resigned.
Jack Roslovic is currently a restricted free agent and has yet to ink a deal, but he was being shopped in October, according to Mike McIntrye of the Winnipeg News, and it’s unclear where the forward will be playing at the current moment. But for now, we’ll assume the Jets strike a resolution with Roslovic.
Andrew Copp is also reaching restricted free agency soon, in 2021-2022, and we expect him to resign. The same goes for defenseman Neal Pionk.
Offseason Wildcards
Patrik Laine becomes a restricted free agent, but trade rumors have swirled around the polarizing Finnish forward for a few years. If Laine is ever shipped away from Winnipeg, it could greatly impact the general course of the franchise.
Protected List
Winnipeg’s protected list has plenty of surefire locks, starting with a trio of talented forwards in Blake Wheeler — who also has a no-movement clause — Kyle Connor, and Mark Scheifele. If Laine inks a new deal with the Jets, he will be protected as well.
Jets Protected List
Forwards
Mark Scheifele (lock)
Blake Wheeler (lock, NMC)
Kyle Connor (lock)
Patrik Laine (lock, if re-signed)
Nikolaj Ehlers (lock)
Jack Roslovic (if re-signed)
Andrew Copp (if re-signed)
What forwards are available will depend on what Winnipeg does with the aforementioned situations with Lowry, Copp, and Roslovic.
Lowry, Winnipeg’s third-line center, is a good candidate for selection if he’s left unprotected. The 27-year-old two-way center plays a premium position and adds grit and toughness.
Lowry’s linemates, Copp and Roslovic, are also trendy picks to be selected by Seattle if unprotected. Copp, 26, is lauded for his defensive abilities and has posted encouraging Corsi and Fenwick numbers the past three seasons.
Roslovic, 23, is chock-full of offensive upside, but his reported tenuous relationship with the franchise has not been resolved — yet.
The odd-man out of that aforementioned trio is a good candidate for selection.
Wingers Jansen Harkens, 23, and Mason Appleton, 24, are young options that Seattle may consider as well.
Defensemen
Joshua Morrissey (lock)
Dylan DeMelo (lock)
Neal Pionk (lock)
Sami Niku, 24, was an intriguing option for protection, and was projected to be by Sportnest in their initial list. But that was before the Jets inked 27-year-old Dylan DeMelo to a four-year extension with an annual average value of $3 million.
For now, it’s hard to see them parting with a relatively young trio of Morrissey, 25, Pionk, 25, and DeMelo, with the caveat that Pionk is re-signed.
Goalie
Connor Hellebuyck (lock)
It would take quite the downfall for Hellebuyck, the 2020 Vezina winner, to avoid protection.
Top Expansion Draft Players
Forwards:
Adam Lowry
Mason Appleton
Jansen Harkens
Defensemen:
Sami Niku
Tucker Poolman
Logan Stanley
Overall Thoughts
Lowry would be a mighty fine option for the Seattle Kraken, considering how difficult it is to find capable centers. He is an unrestricted free agent in 2021, but Seattle can take him if they agree to terms with Lowry during the 48-hour negotiation window.
Roslovic would be the most attention-grabbing of the options above, but with his youth and offensive upside, the Jets may not leave that option open for Seattle.
Niku’s fourth professional season will be one to keep an eye on for Kraken fans. The Finnish rearguard was ranked the No. 4 prospect in the Jets organization by Corey Pronman of The Athletic in 2018 after a 54-point season with the Manitoba Moose of the American Hockey League in 2017-18.
Since then, Niku hasn’t been able to break through to the NHL and a lot of his prospect sheen has worn off after an injury-riddled 2019-20 campaign. Niku’s waiver exemption is gone for the 2020-21 season, meaning Winnipeg can’t freely option him to the minors without him being exposed to the other 30 teams. He should get a chance to play in the NHL this season.
A lottery-ticket-type option would be Logan Stanley, who is a “divisive player in the scouting community,” according to Pronman. The enormous 6-foot-7, 231-pound blueliner has 32 points in 117 games in the AHL spanning over two seasons thus far and was a first-round pick — No. 16 overall — out of the Ontario Hockey League in 2016.
Side Deal Scenarios
Bryan Little, who has dealt with chronic concussions ever since taking a slapshot from Ehlers to the head at the start of the 2019-2020 season, is signed through 2024 with an annual cap hit of just over $5.2 million. And with plenty of outstanding contract situations to address and $30 million of projected cap space available entering the 2021 offseason, the Jets will need to make some tough decisions.
Would attaching a prospect and/or high draft pick to Little’s albatross contract compel Seattle to take it on? If it was a Shea Theodore-caliber prospect, perhaps someone like Ville Heinola, Dylan Samberg, Kristian Vesalainen or David Gustafsson, then Seattle general manager Ron Francis probably would probably listen.
Regardless of what happens with Little, there are too many quality players for Cheveldayoff to protect. So one could certainly imagine a scenario in which Winnipeg throws something at Seattle to get them to leave certain players alone in the Expansion Draft.
After a tough go in 2017, Minnesota Wild fans are wondering how their team will handle the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft in 2021.
When the Golden Knights constructed their first roster through their own Expansion Draft, it was widely publicized that a number of teams around the NHL had been badly fleeced by Vegas’s first general manager, George McPhee. The Wild were one of those teams.
You may recall that McPhee managed to get then-Wild GM Chuck Fletcher to hand over Alex Tuch in exchange for Vegas selecting Erik Haula (McPhee also threw in a conditional third-round Draft pick). At the time, Minnesota faithful thought it was the best that Fletcher could have done under the circumstances, being that their blueline had two valuable young chips in Jonas Brodin and Matt Dumba, and only one of those two could be protected.
Well, as history would have it, Haula played a key role in Vegas’s success that season, scoring 29 goals and 26 assists, and finally became the player that Wild fans had hoped to see after watching him shine at the University of Minnesota. Even worse, Tuch has since developed into one of the VGK’s better players, notching 106 points in 194 career games after he wasn’t really given a chance by the Wild.
Certainly, Minnesota will avoid finding itself in another such predicament for the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft, right?
Assumptions
It’s odd that Brodin and Dumba are once again central to Minnesota’s Expansion protection plans, but here we are. The difference this time is that Brodin has a new contract with a no-movement clause, meaning that he is guaranteed to be protected.
With Jared Spurgeon and Ryan Suter also carrying NMC’s, new GM Billy Guerin has four options on how to handle Dumba:
Protect eight total skaters to keep Dumba, but this will mean exposing two more forwards.
Expose Dumba, but losing him for nothing would likely be worse than the 2017 outcome.
Make a side deal with the Kraken to get Seattle to avoid taking Dumba.
Trade Dumba before the Expansion Draft.
As soon as Brodin signed his seven-year extension in September, speculation began swirling that Guerin would trade Dumba. It’s no secret that Minnesota needs to upgrade at center, and Dumba is Guerin’s most valuable trade chip. Though Guerin was recently on the record saying he is “prepared to start the season with [Dumba],” all signs indicate that he will move the stud defenseman prior to the Expansion Draft.
For this exercise, we’re going to make a big assumption and say that Dumba will be traded for a top-six center prior to the end of the upcoming season. The Wild will end up going with the seven forwards/three defensemen/one goalie protection scheme in the Seattle Expansion Draft.
The Wild also now have a whole host of forwards on expiring contracts, including Johansson, Nick Bonino, Marcus Foligno, and Nick Bjugstad. Of those four, we’re going to assume that only Foligno – who has emerged as a leader for the Wild – will be re-signed.
Offseason WILDcards (Get It?)
Minnesota oddly got – at least on paper – even weaker down the middle this offseason when Guerin traded his top center, Eric Staal, to Buffalo for Johansson. He also allowed long-time captain Mikko Koivu to walk in free agency.
Johansson is a fine player, but he’s historically been more successful on wing. This leaves Johansson, Joel Eriksson Ek, Bonino, and Victor Rask (and perhaps the Wild give Nico Sturm a chance).
That’s simply not a good enough center group for the NHL, so one could still see a Dumba-for-a-center trade being consummated sooner rather than later.
Otherwise, this roster is set.
Wild Protected List
Forwards
Zach Parise (NMC, Lock)
Mats Zuccarello (NMC, Lock)
Kevin Fiala (Lock)
Mystery Center (Whichever player the Wild get in assumed Dumba trade)
Joel Eriksson Ek
Jordan Greenway
Marcus Foligno
There’s definitely a chance that Foligno ends up being exposed in favor of a younger player like Sturm, but based on the central role he’s played over the past couple of seasons for Minnesota, we will surmise that Guerin wants to keep him.
Defense
Ryan Suter (NMC, Lock)
Jared Spurgeon (NMC, Lock)
Jonas Brodin (NMC, Lock)
Goalie
Kaapo Kahkonen
The Wild signed Cam Talbot to replace Devan Dubnyk as their starting netminder this offseason, after Dubnyk was traded to the Sharks. Talbot’s deal runs through 2023, but this definitely feels like one of those, “sign and expose” deals, similar to what Braden Holtby signed in Vancouver.
Kahkonen has upside, just won the AHL Best Goaltender Award with the Iowa Wild, and even showed well in five games with the big club, going 3-1-1 in December.
Barring a phenomenal season by Talbot, if the Kraken want him, we think they can have him (but they probably won’t want him).
Top Kraken Expansion Draft Players
Forwards
Nico Sturm
Ryan Hartman
Marcus Johansson
Nick Bonino
Victor Rask
As far as Sound Of Hockey is concerned, Sturm is the most appealing of the forwards that we project to be made available by the Wild in the Seattle Expansion Draft. Again, his exposure would only happen if a Dumba trade is carried out and Foligno is re-signed and protected.
Sturm, 25, has been knocking on the NHL door for some time now. At this point, he’s still only played eight games for the Wild, but it’s easy to imagine him getting significant time this season, especially with the weakened center group.
The German-born player was signed in 2019 as an undrafted free agent out of Clarkson University, where he was nearly a point-per-game player over three seasons. In 2019-2020, he had 12 goals and 20 assists in 55 games with the Iowa Wild and two assists in six games with Minnesota. He’s 6’3” and 206 pounds and plays a solid two-way game.
Hartman, 26, is a known quantity at this point. He scored 19 goals and 12 assists in his first full NHL season in Chicago in 2016-2017 but has since been typecast into bottom-six checking roles in Nashville, Philadelphia, and Minnesota. This is likely the role Hartman would play in Seattle as well, should the Kraken be looking to fill that off the Wild roster.
Johansson and Bonino are both UFA’s, so for the Kraken to select either of them, the two sides would have to agree to a deal during Seattle’s 48-hour negotiating window, then the team would select one of them in the Expansion Draft. Either player would represent a solid veteran presence, but there will be more impactful forwards out there to fill those spots for Seattle.
The Wild would love for Seattle to take Rask and his $4 million cap hit off their hands, but we don’t think the Kraken will want that.
Defense
Carson Soucy
Louie Belpedio
Soucy, 26, has emerged as a bona fide NHL defenseman that would be playing in a top-four role on a lot of NHL teams. The former UMD Bulldog flew largely under the radar as a prospect after being selected in the fifth round in 2013, but has grown into a solid and reliable presence for Minnesota. He scored seven goals and seven assists in 55 games in his first season in the NHL in 2019-2020, and had 20 points the year before in Iowa.
Soucy earned a three-year $8.25 million extension this offseason, and with three NMC’s on Minnesota’s blueline, he cannot be protected from the Expansion Draft.
Belpedio is also intriguing (though less so than Soucy). Now 24 years old, it feels like Belpedio has been on the cusp of the NHL for a long time, but has never cracked the lineup, save for three total games over three years. As an AHLer, the former Miami University (Ohio) captain has notched 43 points in 142 games.
Goalie
Cam Talbot
Alex Stalock
We at Sound Of Hockey think there will be better veteran goalies available than Talbot. The real play here would be if Talbot has a great season and earns himself protection in Minnesota, making Kahkonen available. If that does happen, then Kahkonen would be worth snagging for Seattle.
Side Deal Scenarios
If Guerin does pull off a Dumba trade for a center, then he’s pretty well set up to only lose one relatively replaceable player in the lineup. After seeing how things played out with Vegas, Wild owner Craig Leipold likely won’t want to see Guerin throwing in any sweeteners for Seattle, so we would expect a Soucy- or Sturm-type player to be given up to the Kraken without a side deal.
That said, you can bet that Guerin would love to move Rask and/or Zuccarello, though Zuccarello would have to waive his NMC. Taking on one of those contracts could serve the Kraken a nice young prospect, à la Alex Tuch of 2017.
Also, what does happen if Guerin can’t find a trade partner with the right offer for Dumba?
The Wild have some big decisions to make before the Seattle Expansion Draft.
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at Sound Of Hockey and the host, producer, and editor of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is an inconsistent beer league goalie who believes that five players have to make a mistake before the puck gets to him. Follow him on Twitter @DarrenFunBrown or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
Owners of the longest current playoff drought in the NHL, the Buffalo Sabres appear to be on the verge of a breakthrough season that might also benefit the Seattle Kraken in the Expansion Draft.
The Sabres finished just three points behind – and played two games fewer than – the play-in bound Montreal Canadiens when last season was halted because of COVID-19.
During the offseason they landed the most coveted free agent forward, former Hart Trophy winner Taylor Hall, with a one-year, $8 million deal. Combined with franchise cornerstone center Jack Eichel (36 goals and 78 points in 68 games), newly added veteran centers Eric Staal and Cody Eakin, and budding talent in the organization (ranked No. 5 by The Athletic), Buffalo should be a playoff contender.
If the Sabres do indeed make the postseason for the first time in 10 years it would mean more options for the Kraken’s Expansion Draft. Identifying the Sabres’ best players destined to be protected is a mostly straightforward exercise, as spelled out below. But to reach the playoffs, Eichel, Hall, young star defenseman Rasmus Dahlin, et al. will need members of their supporting cast to step up. And that will surely mean more attractive players from which the Kraken will have to choose.
Assumptions
Buffalo and Seattle face a Taylor Hall dilemma up until 2021 Expansion Draft day.
If Buffalo re-signs him before then, he’ll naturally be protected. Considering all the uncertainty about 2020-21, the flat cap, and sagging hockey-related revenues, don’t bet on Hall re-signing during the season. He shrewdly grabbed that one-year deal with an eye on hitting it big on a long-term deal with his next contract, and he’s going to see how he fits in with Buffalo.
Sound Of Hockey’s John Barr previously threw down the possibility of the Kraken taking Hall despite his looming unrestricted free agency. If he’s out there unprotected, the Kraken need to be ready with creative contract offers to dazzle Hall and his agent. Seattle will have an exclusive 48-hour window to negotiate with pending unrestricted free agents prior to the Expansion Draft. That’s a tight time frame to reach a deal on a career-defining contract, but no team will be in better position than the Kraken to put something like that together.
Of course, Buffalo might try to unload Hall close to the trade deadline if the playoffs seem out of reach.
Offseason Sabres Wildcards
Buffalo has $3.496 million in cap space and 21 of 23 roster spots taken, according to CapFriendly.com. More offseason free agent moves are not likely, but then again few people expected Hall to sign with the Sabres.
Sabres Protected List
Forwards
Jack Eichel (Lock)
Sam Reinhart (Lock)
Victor Olofsson (Lock)
Jeff Skinner (Lock, NMC)
Casey Mittlestadt
Tage Thompson
Rasmus Asplund
Mittlestadt, the eighth overall pick in 2017, hasn’t lived up to expectations in two pro seasons, including half of last year in the minors.
Coming off a season-ending shoulder injury, Thompson, 23, is a 6-6, 215-pound right winger who still has to prove he can stick in the NHL.
If Hall re-signs, he’d replace Asplund, 22, on the protected list. But at least Asplund has been playing recently. He just completed his loan to Vasteras IK in Sweden’s second tier pro league, scoring four goals and nine points in 14 games.
Defense
Rasmus Dahlin (Lock)
Rasmus Ristolainen (Lock)
Henri Jokiharju
Goalie
Jonas Johansson
Third-stringer Johansson, 25, should push for some NHL playing time after going 14-4-3 with a 2.28 GAA and .921 save percentage last season at AHL Rochester. He was recently loaned to the Krefeld Penguins in Germany’s top hockey league, the Deutsche Eishockey Liga.
Top Kraken Expansion Draft Players
Forwards
Taylor Hall
Cody Eakin
Zemgus Girgensons
As mentioned above, Hall is an option to pursue if he’s a pending unrestricted free agent.
Third-line center Eakin has been through this before. The Vegas Golden Knights selected him from the Dallas Stars in the 2017 Expansion Draft. He spent two-and-a-half seasons there, scoring 37 goals and 41 assists in 199 games before being traded to the Winnipeg Jets in February.
Girgensons is also a third-liner who can kill penalties but has reached 30 points in a season just once in eight years in the NHL.
Defense
Colin Miller
Brandon Montour
Jake McCabe
Will Borgen
Jokiharju, 21, is a near-lock to be protected, leaving McCabe, 27, Miller, 28, Montour, 26 and Borgen, 23, as the best remaining blue line options available to the Kraken.
If Hall is out of the picture, we see it coming down to one of three defensemen: Jokiharju, Montour or Miller.
Miller was taken by the Golden Knights in the Expansion Draft and had a career year in Vegas’ debut season with 10 goals and 41 points. He played well last season when he was paired with Dahlin, so he could ride the young Swede’s coattails to a bounce back from one goal and 11 points in 51 games.
Montour will be an unrestricted free agent next offseason, so the Kraken might consider using the 48-hour window to negotiate with him if he improves from a down season (five goals, 18 points). Head coach Ralph Krueger clearly favored Montour over others, as he ranked second in ice time per game among Sabres defensemen in 2019-20. His puck possession skills give him an edge as he finished near the top of the NHL in zone entries per 60 minutes, according to Die By The Blade.
If the Kraken want a stay-at-home defender, McCabe or Borgen will be options. McCabe (6-1, 204 pounds) plays a shut-down role and doesn’t offer much offensive production. After two seasons in the AHL, Borgen (6-3,198 pounds) could make a push for a roster spot in 2020-21.
Goalie
Linus Ullmark
Goaltending is Buffalo’s weakest link, and Linus Ullmark, 27, hasn’t exactly seized No. 1 role. He and Carter Hutton will be unrestricted free agents after this season, so the Sabres recently signed Dustin Tokarski, 31, to a two-year deal to ensure they’ll have a live body under contract to leave exposed in the Expansion Draft. Nothing to see here from Seattle’s standpoint, unless Buffalo makes Johansson available.
Side Deal Scenarios
Kraken general manager Ron Francis knows Jeff Skinner well from when they were both in Carolina. Could the former Hurricanes GM be convinced to take Skinner if he waives his no-movement clause? Bear with us for a moment.
Skinner, 28, has a hefty contract worth an average annual value of $9 million through 2026-27. He didn’t come close to deserving that much in the first year of the deal, notching 14 goals, 23 points, minus-22 and a paltry 7.7 shooting percentage in 59 games last season.
That’s a lot of money to be on the hook for until Skinner is 35, so the Sabres would have to offer a mighty amazing sweetener in the form of a quality player or valuable prospect. It’s a type of move that would impact his longevity in Seattle, so Francis would have to be absolutely sure Skinner can bounce back and show he deserves to be among the current top 25 highest-paid players in the league. Selecting Skinner alone would be foolish, but Buffalo dangling a top forward prospect such as Dylan Cozens would be tantalizing.
Other Kraken Expansion Draft Notes
Another interesting layer of intrigue is Francis’ former Hurricanes teammate Kevyn Adams taking over as Buffalo’s GM in June. On the surface, before any games have been played under his tenure, Adams has done a nice job at reshaping the Sabres. Can the wily veteran Francis outfox the rookie GM when the Kraken decide which Buffalo player to take at draft time?
Discuss that and other Buffalo scenarios below.
Previous Sound of Hockey Expansion Draft team previews
Jim Wilkie is a longtime Northwest journalist, former NHL editor and NHL Insider writer for ESPN.com, a onetime GSHL All-Star, and SJHA hockey dad. Follow him on Twitter @jimwilkie.
