NHL Hockey is unofficially… officially… returning! The decision early in the week by the NHL to suddenly begin negotiating in public about a portion of its return-to-play plan for this season felt a bit ominous. We’ve seen from the lockouts of yesteryear that public negotiating by either side usually means bad things are coming. The league had started indicating that the COVID-related restrictions imposed by provincial governments could make it impossible for Canadian teams to play their games in their home arenas.
This would, of course, derail the widely publicized plan of having an all-Canadian division.
Thankfully, that all-Canadian division was not the lynchpin to getting a deal done after all, because the NHL and NHLPA announced in an obnoxiously late Friday night news dump that they have a tentative plan in place to begin the season on January 13th. All indications are that regardless of if Canadian teams are allowed to play in their own cities – or if they have to play in American cities – there will be a 56-game season.
Tentative agreement between #NHL and #NHLPA (which requires approval) calls for training camps to open on Jan. 3 and regular season on Jan. 13.
The 7 teams who did not make 24-team playoff can open camp on Dec. 30.
All dates subject to change. Scheduling not finalized.
Friend of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast, Scott Burnside, has the full breakdown of the plan in The Athletic, but here are the highlights:
56-game regular season with no exhibition games
Playoffs will be top four teams in each division with each division producing a Conference Finals participant
Rosters will be expanded to 23 players
Each team will also have a “taxi squad” of 4-6 players
There will be schedule flexibility like in the NFL, in case games need to be postponed due to positive tests
Here is the latest divisional alignment plan, which still assumes that the NHL will be able to work out the all-Canadian division.
BOSTON
CAROLINA
ANAHEIM
CALGARY
BUFFALO
COLUMBUS
ARIZONA
EDMONTON
NEW JERSEY
DALLAS
COLORADO
OTTAWA
ISLANDERS
DETROIT
LOS ANGELES
MONTREAL
RANGERS
CHICAGO
MINNESOTA
TORONTO
PHILADELPHIA
FLORIDA
SAN JOSE
VANCOUVER
PITTSBURGH
NASHVILLE
ST. LOUIS
WINNIPEG
WASHINGTON
TAMPA BAY
VEGAS
Obviously, if the all-Canadian division doesn’t come to fruition, then the above will be fully re-worked, and the Canadian teams will have to find American cities to temporarily call home.
Steen Hangs ‘Em Up
Alex Steen is hanging up the skates after a successful 15-year NHL career. The big winger played 1,018 games in his career, and notched 622 career points. Steen started his career with the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2005 and was traded to the St. Louis Blues in 2008, where he played out the next 12 seasons, lifting the Stanley Cup in 2019.
Steen cited a back injury as his reason to retire, and more specifically, he apparently has some degenerative herniated discs that sound absolutely miserable.
As part of his announcement, Steen told stlouisblues.com, “This has been an emotional process. But as I look back on my years in hockey, I would like to thank our organization, our city, our fans, and my teammates as I am so proud of all the teams I was a part of.”
Steen has one year left on his contract, and apparently the Blues will still be charged against the cap.
If Steen's contract was insured St. Louis could claim up to 80% of his salary back after the 30th game.
To our knowledge, Steen did not finish the season on IR as a result of this same injury. Therefore even if insured, the club is responsible to pay him for the first 30 games. https://t.co/bqEK3ZpboB
Oh, and he just had a baby! What a week for Steen!
Congratulations client Alexander Steen on retiring after awesome career. He’s finally giving his body a well deserved break after 15yrs #NHL 1,109 games paying the price hoisting the #StanleyCup…oh yeah and a baby boy last night. Now go change a diaper! pic.twitter.com/Bl7DLGgUrj
Speaking of health issues forcing players out of the NHL, Henrik Lundqvist announced that he will not be playing for Washington this season, as we were expecting.
Lundqvist apparently is dealing with a heart condition that would make it unsafe for him to participate.
While there is no indication in the statement that Lundqvist is planning to retire, he is now 38 years old, will not have a contract next season, and is dealing with a serious issue here. If this is the last we see of the dreamy Swede as an NHL player, it will be very sad to see it end this way.
King Henrik has had an incredible run. In his 15-year career, Lundqvist, who holds a career regular season record of 459-310-96, became synonymous with the New York Rangers and has been the perfect ambassador for the sport. He won the Vezina Trophy in 2012 and led the Blueshirts to the Stanley Cup Final in 2014, but has never lifted hockey’s greatest prize.
There was hope that in a back-up or secondary role with Washington, he may get one last kick at the can.
While it certainly isn’t the main takeaway here, one has to wonder who will platoon in Washington’s goal crease this season with 23-year-old Ilya Samsonov. Veteran free agents left out there include Jimmy Howard (36), Cory Schneider (34), Ryan Miller (40), and Craig Anderson (39).
Speaking of Free Agents
The Minnesota Wild signed Andrew Hammond, AKA The Hamburglar, to a one-year, two-way deal. The signing comes after a revelation that Wild back-up, Alex Stalock, is out indefinitely with an upper-body injury.
Never forget Hammond’s time with the Senators.
Oh, and speaking of the Senators, former Senator Anthony Duclair finally signed a one-year steal of a deal for the Florida Panthers, worth just $1.7 million. That seems like a pretty great rate and a no-risk deal for a speedy winger that broke out for 23 goals and 17 assists in 66 games for Ottawa last season.
It is curious why Duclair, skilled and still just 25 years old, continues to get bounced around the league. Florida will be his sixth NHL team.
Advanced stats do offer some explanation…
Anthony Duclair (1×1.7m with Florida) brings a little offence although his finishing has returned to earth a little. The defensive weaknesses are …. severe. pic.twitter.com/HQSAlCzTkh
Mike Hoffman, Mikael Granlund, Sami Vatanen, Carl Soderberg, and many others remain unsigned.
WJC – The “C” Stands for “Concerns”
Teams have arrived in Edmonton for the World Junior Championship, though they haven’t gotten there without some challenges.
Two planes were sent to Europe to bring six teams and their luggage. The planes were simply not large enough to carry everyone and their things, and still allow for social distancing. After a long delay to the teams’ journeys, cargo planes were eventually chartered to bring their belongings separately.
Now in the so-called bubble, positive COVID tests have been returned for eight of Germany’s players and two of Sweden’s staff members. Remember, Sweden lost several players from its roster at the last minute before traveling, as well as its head coach, due to positive tests.
Sweden also shared a too-small plane with Russia and Finland on the way to Canada, which adds to the concern around the positive tests.
Hopefully these are the last positive tests we see, and that everyone recovers quickly.
Here is the full statement from the IIHF's Event Executive Committee, which suggests Germany's COVID-positive players could potentially return after completing a mandatory quarantine period due to everyone already being isolated. pic.twitter.com/PmAMGAM2Oz
It’s also unclear at this time if the IIHF plans to resurrect the penalty music from last year’s WJC in Czech Republic. We remain optimistic that every time a player commits an infraction at this year’s tournament, he will again be subjected to the embarrassment of hearing this tune as he enters the box.
Around the Boards
There’s also been a lot of uncertainty around college hockey this season, including when Big Ten teams would even play in the second half. Well, those schedules have finally been released. Play resumes January 3rd and concludes with the Big Ten Tournament March 18-20.
We don’t yet know what the format will be for the NCAA Tournament, or even how the NCAA will choose its participants, especially considering that many Division I teams have still only played a handful of games. Nonetheless, here are the latest rankings, per USCHO.com.
Finally, the WHL announced that it is further delaying the start of its season, though a date has not been confirmed. The league said in its statement that “The Board of Governors will meet in January to consider potential start dates.”
Darren Brown is the Chief Content Officer at Sound Of Hockey and the host, producer, and editor of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast. He is an inconsistent beer league goalie who believes that five players have to make a mistake before the puck gets to him. Follow him on Twitter @DarrenFunBrown or email darren@soundofhockey.com.
The Pittsburgh Penguins are trending in the wrong direction as we head toward the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft.
After winning consecutive Stanley Cups in 2016 and 2017, the Penguins had a second-round exit in 2018, a first-round defeat in 2019, and last year were ousted by Montreal in the qualifying round. General manager Jim Rutherford has a veteran club, but will he have to expose any key players to the Seattle Kraken in the NHL Expansion Draft?
Not likely. But, Seattle will still have an opportunity to find a depth player.
Rutherford made two moves that will make his life easier in the Expansion Draft. He sent Patric Hornqvist and his high salary to Florida while also solving his goalie controversy by trading Matt Murray to Ottawa.
The pickings are going to be slim for Ron Francis and the Kraken as the Penguins will have relatively easy decisions to make on who to protect and at the same time won’t have to lose an up-and-coming prospect.
With Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin at the top of its roster, Pittsburgh will be competitive in the upcoming season. With older stars, the shortened season could even work in the Penguins’ favor.
Assumptions
The Penguins are $1.3 million under the cap. If Rutherford wanted to create some cap space, he has players that would be attractive. The problem is those players, like Jason Zucker or Kasperi Kapanen, were recent additions to the team and are expected to be a big part of the Penguins attack.
Since it’s unlikely Rutherford would quickly flip those players, we will assume the roster is set.
Penguins Protected List
It shouldn’t take Rutherford too long to figure how his list is going to look. That’s not to say he won’t have to choose among a couple of productive players. The Penguins’ two superstars, Crosby and Malkin, both have no-movement clauses on their contracts and need to be protected – which would be a no-brainer even without the clauses.
Forwards
Pittsburgh most likely will protect seven forwards with three defensemen and a goalie. The first six forwards to protect are easy to predict.
There will be a decision on who forward number seven should be, however.
Brandon Tanev is the favorite to be the seventh guy saved from Seattle. Last season was the 28-year-old’s first in Pittsburgh and he was a solid forward. He averaged just under 15 minutes of ice time and chipped in with 11 goals. He has a non-prohibitive $3.5 million per year contract that runs through 2025.
Another candidate for protection is Jared McCann. He’s four years younger than Tanev, cheaper, and scored 14 goals last season. He could play his way into the conversation with a strong campaign in 2021.
For this exercise we will project Tanev to end up with the protected slot, leaving McCann exposed to Seattle.
Sidney Crosby (NMC)
Evgeni Malkin (NMC)
Jake Guentzel
Jason Zucker
Bryan Rust
Kasperi Kapanen
Brandon Tanev
Defense
The Penguins’ most promising young defenseman is John Marino. The rookie recorded 26 points and would be attractive to Seattle. The problem? He’s not eligible for the Expansion Draft so the Kraken will have to look elsewhere.
Kris Letang is the automatic protect on the blue line (NMC) and the Penguins again have some clear-cut choices for the other two. Brian Dumoulin, 29, and Marcus Pettersson, 24, should also be easy to protect for Rutherford.
That would leave veteran Mike Matheson exposed. Matheson, 26, was acquired from Florida in the Hornqvist trade this offseason. He’s played just under 300 NHL games and is a serviceable blue liner. Matheson is signed through 2026 at $4.875 million per year, and the Penguins should feel confident that the Kraken would steer clear at that price. Exposing him would allow them to protect younger defensemen.
Kris Letang (NMC)
Brian Dumoulin
Marcus Pettersson
Goalie
If not for the Murray trade, goalie would have been an issue at the Expansion Draft for the Penguins. Jarry will now take over as the clear-cut number one guy and again, an easy choice to protect for Rutherford.
That would leave 29-year-old Casey DeSmith exposed.
Tristan Jarry
Pittsburgh Penguins Expansion Draft Targets
Forwards
Jared McCann
Teddy Blueger
Brandon Tanev (If exposed)
Defense
Mike Matheson
Chad Ruhwedal
Goalie
Casey DeSmith
Thoughts
Seattle’s best bets are to look up front with the Penguins. Tanev is a quality player and could be a top-six forward for the Kraken. Getting exposed would mean he turned in a poor season or that he was outplayed by McCann or a guy like Blueger. That might be worthy of a second look.
McCann is a hard-working forward with some offensive skill. Most likely would project to be a bottom-six guy but has some experience and could improve with a larger role. Blueger, 26, is a former second-round pick who has had productive AHL seasons. Last year he spent 69 games with Pittsburgh in the NHL and reached career highs with nine goals and 22 points.
If the Kraken desire an experienced defenseman who will help them reach the cap floor, Matheson could be the pick here.
Side Deal Scenarios
The only sensible side deal target would be Matheson. He has yet to lace them up for Pittsburgh but is signed to a long-term deal. If Rutherford is desperate to free up his $4.8 million in cap space, he could be on the market.
It seems like a stretch to think that the Pittsburgh Penguins would be willing to give up a young prospect in exchange for Francis taking Matheson off their books in the Expansion Draft. But the Kraken might be able to pick up a draft pick for him. Matheson is not a terrible defenseman. He has some offensive punch and could contribute. He has a modified no-trade clause in his contract so trading him down the line would be tougher but not impossible.
Previous Sound Of Hockey Expansion Draft Team Previews
So you want to make Team Canada for the World Junior Championship? Good luck, kid.
Growing up in Mission, British Columbia, Everett Silvertips center Gage Goncalves dreamed about one day playing for Team Canada at the World Junior Championship. He wasn’t alone.
The annual tournament features the top players under 20 years old in the world. Most who make the Canadian team are already drafted by NHL teams, and the tournament is hockey of the highest quality. Canada won gold last January and has dominated over the years, winning 18 Gold medals. In Canada, the Championship is a holiday tradition and would compare somewhere between the Super Bowl and Final Four for American sports fans.
Canadians young and old live and die on every shot.
Goncalves, 19, was drafted by the Tampa Bay Lightning in the fall and while finishing a morning workout in early November, got another big call. He was invited to the Team Canada camp and was getting a chance to represent his country.
“I was so excited I ripped home to tell my family,” he says. “I’ve been watching that tournament for so long so just going to the camp was an unbelievable experience. I remember wearing my little ball hockey jersey thinking I was Team Canada growing up. It was a really big moment for me.”
For hockey players growing up everywhere, making it to the NHL is the dream. But for Canadian kids, playing in the World Junior Championship for Team Canada with the maple leaf on your jersey is almost as important.
The Canadian Dream
It’s a dream that many share but few get a chance to live.
“I think it’s probably the number two (goal),” Spokane Chiefs forward and Minnesota Wild draft pick Adam Beckman says. “The ultimate goal is to play in the NHL, but I think as a young kid growing up, especially around the holidays, there isn’t much else on TV, other than the World Juniors. It’s something that everyone rallies around and gets excited about.”
Beckman, 19, hails from Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, and watched Team Canada heroes with awe growing up. As did his peers.
So many great players have played for Canada in this tournament.
Name a Canadian NHL superstar. They likely wore the red, white, and sometimes black Canadian sweaters at the World Junior Championship prior to their pro careers kicking off. They have given Canadian kids a lot to dream about as they watch from home.
“I have quite a few memories,” Beckman says. “The most excited I’ve ever been is Canada playing Russia in the (2009) semifinal. They were down with like 20 seconds and Jordan Eberle had the puck and ripped a backhand. They ended up winning in the shootout.”
Team Canada Opened an Extended Camp in Red Deer
The selection process for Team Canada looked a little different this year. Because of the delays in Major-Junior and NCAA hockey – from which the players are chosen – Canada took advantage with an extended camp.
In non-COVID times, Team Canada would open its World Junior Championship camp in December, but this year started on Nov. 16, inviting 46 players to try out. The camp was held at the Enmax Center in Red Deer, Alberta with the goal of selecting the team’s final roster to enter the WJC’s Edmonton bubble.
The players arrived and took the ice for two-a-day practices over the first days of the camp.
Minnesota Wild prospect Adam Beckman led the WHL in scoring for Spokane. (Brian Liesse)
“The practices were pretty tough,” Beckman says. “None of us had practiced at that pace in eight months. You work as hard as you can in the offseason but it’s never quite the same. Everyone was alert and working hard, it was good.”
That pace was led by the best of the best junior players, but it also included players like Kirby Dach who played 64 games for the Chicago Blackhawks last year. Dach is 19 years old which made him eligible to play in the World Junior Championship and the Blackhawks gave him permission.
The Los Angeles Kings also gave permission for the second overall pick in October’s NHL Draft, Quinton Byfield to play. This was not a normal camp.
After four days of practice, the team started holding full intra-squad scrimmages to further evaluate the players.
“It was crazy,” Goncalves says. “Everything is just so quick. There is no drop-off, everybody can make plays, everybody is an all-star, everyone is a superstar on their club teams, and everybody can score goals. The games were a lot of fun…it was unbelievable.”
Feeding Canada’s World Junior fanaticism, the scrimmages were broadcast live on TSN. Not only was the skill higher but so was the pressure.
Canada Halts Camp Due to COVID-19 Positives
While the action on the ice was heating up, the camp was rocked by a couple of positive COVID tests. Everything was put on halt and the camp shut down on Nov. 24th. Players who had been paired up in the team hotel were given their own rooms while they quarantined for two weeks.
“It was definitely boring,” Beckman says of the experience.
To keep in shape, spin bikes were brought to their rooms for daily Zoom workouts with their teammates. Hockey Canada brought in guest speakers for the players. It included NHLers like Morgan Rielly, Sam Reinhart, and Alex Kerfoot who shared their sage advice.
The team also brought in Canadian mountain climber Jamie Clarke, who twice has summited Mount Everest, to speak about teamwork.
“I guess I’ll have to add (climbing Mount Everest) to the bucket list now,” Goncalves says with a laugh. “It’s way harder than putting a puck in the net, I’ll tell you that.”
It wasn’t all hockey and motivation, however.
The team played poker over Zoom and had a painting lesson to bring out the artistic side of hockey players.
It's true… a Bob Ross paint night in Red Deer quarantine revealed some artists in our midst! 🎨
“I did a painting,” Beckman says with a chuckle. “I surprised myself a little bit, it wasn’t too bad.”
Tough Decisions in Final Cuts
Once the quarantine ended it was back to the ice for Team Canada.
Another practice and another scrimmage were held before Hockey Canada and head coach André Tourigny had to make some tough decisions.
The roster was saturated with talent but they couldn’t keep every player. Choices were made after watching all 46 players’ performances over 26 days of camp. The final roster of 25 players was announced on Dec. 11th.
“I thought I played my role well,” Goncalves says about his performance. “I tried to just bring a lot of energy and leadership and focused on the small details. Being big in the faceoff circle, blocking shots. I was happy with my camp. I think I laid it all out there.”
Unfortunately for both Goncalves and Beckman, they weren’t able to crack the final roster and were sent home.
The duo were two of three players in camp from the WHL’s U.S. Division, joining Portland speedster Seth Jarvis. As a testament to how good the talent with Canada is, the three combined last year to score 123 goals and 276 points. There are not many hockey teams that would say no to that kind of production out of three players
An argument could be made that a roster comprised of cuts from Team Canada could be medal contenders in the World Junior Championship. There’s no shame in not making the cut.
“It’s disappointing to not have that opportunity but at the same time you’ve got to sit back and realize there are so many good hockey players,” Beckman says. “It’s definitely motivating going forward.”
Looking Forward
Moving forward is what Beckman and Goncalves will focus on next and they both have bright futures in hockey.
Beckman led the WHL in scoring last year and is a second-round pick of the Wild. He’s likely a year away from pro hockey and is using the Team Canada experience to prepare for the uptick in skill at the next level.
“I think just getting that opportunity to be there was really exciting,” he says. “Comparing yourself to the best players in the country is something I’ve always wanted to do. Just having the opportunity to be there and try to fulfill a childhood dream was exciting.”
Goncalves has had a roller coaster year. He was selected by the Lightning in the second round of the NHL Draft and then was invited to Canada’s camp. Unfortunately, he learned of his grandfather’s passing while at camp.
“He was my best friend,” Goncalves says.
Everett’s Gage Goncalves (right) celebrated a breakout year with the Silvertips. (Brian Liesse)
A few days after being cut he would get some good news to help assuage some of his disappointment and loss. He returned home and signed his first pro contract, inking an entry-level deal with Tampa Bay.
“It was nice to have such a big up after the past downs,” Goncalves says. “I’m just so honored to get a chance from them, the past year’s Stanley Cup Champions. I’m going to do everything in my power to make a push in the next couple of years. It’s nice to know they have some faith in me.”
Both Beckman and Goncalves say they will try to turn the disappointment of not making Team Canada into motivation moving forward. Both feel getting to play in some high-caliber games will help if and when the WHL returns to play.
They learned a lot from the experience. They learned how hard they will have to work as they move up hockey’s ranks and into the pros.
“With everything happening with the Draft and signing, there’s so many ups,” Goncalves says. “It’s easy to get outside your comfort zone and think you’ve made it. I’m going to keep being Gage and keep that ‘little kid from Mission’ mentality.”
The World Junior Championship begins on Dec. 25th and will be televised in the U.S. on NHL Network.
With Lisa, the guys discuss the Kings’ plans for the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft, their deep prospect pool, and how long the team might stink. Great interview.
Also in this episode, John, Andy, and Darren discuss some of the travel woes that have been experienced by teams trying to get into the World Junior Championship bubble and consider some of the rosters that have been released.
Segments this week include a controversial Goalie Gear Corner, You Don’t See That Every Day, and Weekly One-Timers. Also, Let’s Get Quizzical makes its triumphant return from a long hiatus.
The Sound Of Hockey guys welcome a fantastic guest this week in the great Lisa Dillman, Senior Writer covering the Los Angeles Kings for The Athletic. Lisa previously worked at the Los Angeles Times for 23 years, so she has stories for days.
With Lisa, the guys discuss the Kings’ plans for the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft, their deep prospect pool, and how long the team might stink. Great interview.
Also in this episode, John, Andy, and Darren discuss some of the travel woes that have been experienced by teams trying to get into the World Junior Championship bubble and consider some of the rosters that have been released.
Segments this week include a controversial Goalie Gear Corner, You Don’t See That Every Day, and Weekly One-Timers. Also, Let’s Get Quizzical makes its triumphant return from a long hiatus.
During the 2017 Expansion Draft, it was slim pickings for the Vegas Golden Knights when it came to the Edmonton Oilers’ player pool, but thankfully for the Seattle Kraken, there’s a little bit more meat on the bone this time around.
The Oilers, with Hart Trophy winners Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, have always boasted a top-heavy roster. But there’s more depth now than there was is 2017, with a few intriguing young players and some possible reclamation projects the Seattle Kraken can choose from in the 2021 Expansion Draft.
Assumptions
We’ll assume the Oilers will re-sign 27-year-old forward Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who is an unrestricted free agent after this upcoming season.
Top prospects Evan Bouchard, Philip Broberg, and Raphael Lavoie are all exempt because they haven’t accrued more than two professional seasons. Same with the Oilers’ recent first-round pick, Dylan Holloway.
Joakim Nygard, 27, and Gaetan Haas, 28, are also exempt.
Protected List
Forwards
Connor McDavid (Lock)
Leon Draisaitl (Lock)
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (Lock, if re-signed)
Kailer Yamamoto
Defensemen
Darnell Nurse
Oscar Klefbom
Ethan Bear
Caleb Jones
Goaltender
Mikko Koskinen
We project the Oilers to go the eight-skater route when it comes to their protection list for the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft. This will allow them to keep promising young defensemen Ethan Bear, 23, and Caleb Jones, 23 away from Seattle.
The wildcard in this group is Oscar Klefbom, who could miss the 2021-22 campaign due to chronic issues with his shoulder. Klefbom, 27, is a productive player when healthy, but he may be put on long-term injured reserve. If that’s the case, Edmonton may not be compelled to protect him.
It’s a situation to closely monitor for Kraken fans. If Klefbom is left off Edmonton’s protected list, 28-year-old blueliner Adam Larsson or 29-year-old Tyson Barrie could take his place if either has a bounce-back season in 2021-22. Both are unrestricted free agents after the season. The Oilers could also protect seven forwards instead and just protecting Bear, Jones, and Nurse.
For now, Yamamoto, 22, holds the inside track for claiming the fourth and final protection spot at forward. However, Jesse Puljujarvi, Zack Kassian, or even Dominik Kahun could claim it with a stellar 2021-22 campaign.
Expansion Draft Candidates
Forward
Jesse Puljujarvi
Dominik Kahun
Zack Kassian
Kyle Turris
Tyler Benson
Kassian is a trendy choice to be the pick from the Oilers in the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft, but we at Sound Of Hockey frankly don’t understand the infatuation.
Yes, he is relatively big — Kassian is listed at 6-foot-3, 211 pounds — he’s developed a reputation as one of the NHL’s best tough guys, and he posted decent advanced metrics last season. But Kassian’s career-best 34-point season in 2019-20 came while playing 76 percent of his 5-on-5 minutes with Connor McDavid. Advanced metrics unsurprisingly indicate Kassian’s impact decreases significantly when he’s not playing with McDavid. Kassian, who is signed through 2024 with an average annual value (AAV) of $3.2 million, also is notorious for taking a great number of penalties.
If Seattle is looking for someone with top-six forward experience, Kassian may be the obvious choice. But there’s no guarantee he’ll be a top-six caliber player without Connor McDavid.
Puljujarvi, 22, is the splashiest choice for the Kraken because, quite simply, young players taken early in the NHL Draft aren’t usually available in an Expansion Draft. The Finnish winger, who was taken No. 4 overall by Edmonton in the 2016 NHL Draft, is 6-foot-4 and skilled but failed to make an impact early in his NHL career. What’s more, he spent the entire last season with Karpat in Liiga, Finland’s top league, after his relationship with the team soured and he publicly wanted to be traded out of Edmonton.
If Seattle is disenchanted with Puljujarvi, either Kahun, 25, or Benson, 22, would be the next best options.
Kahun is already with his fourth NHL franchise, but the German National Team forward has put up over 30 points in each of his two NHL seasons. The 25-year-old is a free agent in 2021-22.
Benson, a former member of the Vancouver Giants of the Western Hockey League, has proven to be a capable playmaker. The Edmonton native finished with 51 assists last year for the American Hockey League’s Bakersfield Condors, but he’s struggled with finishing at the NHL level. Benson is the Oilers’ seventh-ranked prospect, according to The Athletic’s Corey Pronman.
Turris’ best years are behind him, but he’s a decent option if Seattle is seeking a veteran on an affordable contract; Turris signed a two-year deal with Edmonton with an AAV of $1.6 million this offseason.
Defensemen
Adam Larsson
Tyson Barrie
William Lagesson
Larsson and Barrie are known for being lightning rods for teasing on the internet — Larsson because he was the other player in the infamous one-for-one Taylor Hall trade to New Jersey and Barrie because of his underwhelming tour with Toronto last season. But they are both worth mentioning because they’ve been highly productive players in the past.
Lagesson, 24, has not yet fully broken into the NHL, nor has he been overly productive in the AHL, but the Swedish rearguard would be the best option if Seattle is seeking a young defenseman.
Goaltender
Stuart Skinner
Everett Silvertips fans will remember Skinner for tending goal for the Swift Current Broncos in their 2017 WHL Championship series. Skinner, 22, had some prospect pedigree after being selected by Edmonton in the third round of the 2017 NHL Draft, but his stock fell after inconsistent play in his first two professional seasons.
If Skinner puts together a stellar 2021-22 season, he could land on the Kraken’s radar as a goalie prospect to gamble on. But for now, his situation is too blurry.
Potential Side Deals for Seattle Kraken
Perhaps the Oilers will dangle a prospect or a draft pick to coerce Seattle into taking expensive veteran forward James Neal. Neal, 33, and his $5.75 AAV contract expires in 2023. Edmonton, which has the 26th-ranked farm system in the NHL, may not have the firepower to make that happen or may not have the need to dump salary in general — the Oilers have plenty of projected cap space available in 2021-22.
Josh Horton is a freelance writer, former newspaper journalist, and former Western Hockey League writer for the Everett Herald and The Spokesman-Review (Spokane). He is NOT a juggler, nor is he a former professional baseball player. Follow him on Twitter @byjoshhorton.
Previous Sound Of Hockey Expansion Draft Team Previews
One of the important decisions for the immediate, and perhaps the long-standing future of the Seattle Kraken, is what it decides to do at goalie during the Expansion Draft. Sound Of Hockey’s Darren Brown speculated on which goalies the Kraken may be linked to recently. Based on Seattle devoting a great number of front-office hires to assemble a robust analytics team, a statistical approach will almost certainly be considered when choosing any player in the Expansion Draft, including goaltenders. But for the Seattle Kraken, what goalie analytics even exist?
With a deeper breadth of data available, the Kraken’s front office will have a more complete data set than the public. But that doesn’t mean the public can’t take a look at what may be available through an analytical lens.
In a way, goaltenders are akin to starting pitchers in baseball in how they’re evaluated. Some people evaluate goalies and pitchers solely on wins. No matter how many goals a netminder gives up, a team win is all that matters.
But any person that thinks the game with a crumble of analytics will tell you this stat is not even emblematic of a goaltender’s performance. This is a very old-school approach to thinking about sports and especially hockey where there are so many variables that go into the outcome of a game.
The same goes for goals-against average (GAA), which is a slightly more sophisticated stat, but not by much. It’s similar to ERA (earned-run average) for pitchers in baseball, but really, it’s even worse. The goalie isn’t solely responsible for every single goal a team gives up, because not every shot is created equal; even the best NHL goaltenders won’t perform well if they’re facing many high-danger chances every night.
(Say it with us, folks: “Goals Against Average is a Team Stat!”)
Things get slightly more specific with save percentage, which provides a more comprehensive look at a goaltender’s efficacy, but there’s still quite a bit missing. It’s a stat that requires a large sample size to have substantial value and can be misleading because not all saves carry the same degree of difficulty. Also, some teams allow a lot of shots and some teams don’t allow many shots, which really influences percentages especially when dealing with small sample sizes. .
Some stats go beyond the “traditional” metrics that aren’t all that difficult to understand.
“Advanced” Goaltender Stats to Consider:
First, there’s GSAA, which stands for Goals Saved Above Average. This stat takes into account the league’s average save percentage and then applies it to the actual number of shots a goaltender has saved. In theory, it demonstrates how many goals a netminder would save compared to a replacement-level goaltender – for baseball fans, this stat is conceptually similar to the WAR (Wins Above Replacement) stat in baseball. This stat has its flaws, however, because it lacks some key context and assumes every shot a goaltender saves is equal, which we know isn’t accurate, and it benefits goaltenders with the most games played. Rating this stat out per 60 minutes (the length of an NHL game) is the best way to determine how a goalie is performing on a game-to-game basis.
There is also GSAx from the website “Evolving Hockey”, which stands for Goals Saved Above Expected and provides a bit more uniformity and specificity. It draws from Evolving Hockey’s expected goal model, so it takes into account how difficult, in theory, a shot was that a goaltender saved. This stat is also best when rated out per 60 minutes.
dFSv%, a stat also found on Evolving Hockey that stands for “Difference (or delta) in Fenwick Save percentage,” is another good one to use. Fenwick, for those that aren’t aware, is a stat that is essentially a fancier way of saying “unblocked shot.” Evolving Hockey’s expected goal model calculates an expected save percentage and demonstrates the difference.
HDSV%, MDSV%, and LDSV% – which stand for high-danger, medium-danger, and low-danger save percentage, respectively – are also useful stats. They measure exactly what they sound like. High-danger shots have an expected shooting percentage of over nine percent, medium-danger shots have an expected shooting percentage between three and nine percent, and low-danger shots have an expected shooting percentage below three percent.
Quality starts, a stat available by Hockey-Reference.com, count how many times a goalie posts a save percentage in a game that’s above the league average for save percentage. A quality start can also be earned by saving over 88.5 percent of shots in a game with 20 or fewer shots on goal. When a goaltender secures a quality start, their team has about a 75 percent chance of winning, according to HockeyReference.
Quality Starts % (QS%) is also available and is a great barometer into how a specific goalie is performing. A quality start percentage above 53 percent is considered above average, over 60 percent is considered excellent, and under 50 percent is considered below average.
Here’s how many of the goalie targets most connected to Seattle stack up in these metrics.
Maybe somewhat surprisingly, players like Arizona’s Antti Raanta and Adin Hill and Montreal’s Jake Allen rate out favorably, while more well-known goaltenders like Vancouver’s Braden Holtby and Ottawa’s Matt Murray do not.
But unfortunately, goaltender analysis — at least currently — is steps behind the analytical data that we have for players, and it’s not always fair to compare goalies to one another.
The Wild, Wild West of Analytics
The issue isn’t that there aren’t bright people evaluating goaltenders.
There’s just a dearth of public and, more importantly, reliable data to draw from.
“We have to be very, very careful with goaltending analytics,” said Alison Lukan, a prominent hockey analytics writer who currently writes for 1st Ohio Battery, a Columbus Blue Jackets’ site. “It’s probably the weakest part of the game in terms of us understanding it and properly evaluating it.”
The only publicly available data is via the National Hockey League, and sometimes, there’s missing context, especially when it comes to goaltending.
“We have to be very, very careful with goaltending analytics,” said Alison Lukan, a prominent hockey analytics writer who currently writes for 1st Ohio Battery, a Columbus Blue Jackets’ site. “It’s probably the weakest part of the game in terms of us understanding it and properly evaluating it.”
“A lot of the publicly available data is wildly inconsistent when it comes to goaltending,” said Catherine Silverman, a hockey writer who is well-known for her goaltender analysis. “… The save percentages, the high-danger save percentages, the stuff like that, is a little suspect at times.”
A lot of the popular analytics websites, such as Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick, scrape data from the league website, which isn’t as precise as the private data the 31 current NHL teams are using to draw conclusions.
This is highly problematic considering how many metrics hinge on where on the ice a shot on goal was taken and how the shot was created.
“I always tell people that the first thing to know is that the data is going to be a little suspect at times,” Silverman said. “We’re in the infancy of goaltending analytics because it’s really the last position to be delved into from an analytical level at a deep level. It’s still very behind what you get from forwards and defenders.
What’s more, the lion’s share of goaltender analytics doesn’t take into account these key questions: Was the goalie screened? Was the shot off a rebound? Was the goalie moving laterally and what was their depth in net?
“You can still look at that data, flawed or not, to look at an individual goaltender throughout the course of a season,” Silverman said. “See how their numbers are going up and down, see how much they’re fluctuating, see what they’re looking at year-to-year as long as they’re with the same team. You can use it for personal growth and improvement and you can use it for consistency, but it’s hard to use it to compare players because the data coming from each arena isn’t always consistent.”
There are many private companies, such as Clearsite or SportLogic, that can evaluate those aforementioned considerations, but that data is typically only available for the 31 franchises in the league.
What’s Next
Puck and player tracking is expected to roll out any year now, but it’s unclear how much will be made publicly available by the NHL.
That’s the only way to remove the “noise” from many of the goaltending stats people are referencing and compare goalies to each other fairly.
“Until we get standardized puck-tracking, whether it’s through chips in the pucks or technology in all the rinks, goaltending analytics can’t take the step forward that it needs to,” Silverman said. “We truly need that locational data for shots, we need to know who is facing shots that are being blocked, who’s facing them while being screened, who’s facing them from crazy angles.”
Right now, that sort of data is mostly being manually tracked, which is quite arduous and subject to the “eye-test.”
Like any hockey statistic, goaltending analytics are best applied in harmony with live scouting. But for the common hockey fan, these aforementioned metrics can provide a better understanding of how effective goaltenders are through observations we aren’t able to see.
Striking the perfect balance may determine how successful the Kraken are in 2021-22.
Josh Horton is a freelance writer, former newspaper journalist, and former Western Hockey League writer for the Everett Herald and The Spokesman-Review (Spokane). He is NOT a juggler, nor is he a former professional baseball player. Follow him on Twitter @byjoshhorton.
For a team – and a fanbase – that fancies itself as a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, the Toronto Maple Leafs aren’t exactly gushing with the sort of quality depth that will excite the Seattle Kraken in the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft.
At least not yet anyway.
Toronto’s core four of highly talented and highly paid forwards – Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner and William Nylander – eat up 49.7 percent of its 2020-2021 salary cap space, leaving the rest to be spread creatively among the remaining 19 roster players. Defensemen Jake Muzzin, Morgan Rielly, and T.J. Brodie and goaltender Frederik Andersen bite off another $20.625 million, causing Leafs Nation and management a lot of wishful thinking and finger-crossing over the rest of the roster.
Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas has kept kicking the salary cap can down the road to the point where he’s skating a thin line in this COVID-19 flat cap market. This means it will be interesting to see how Kraken GM – and one-time Maple Leaf – Ron Francis can exploit this in the Seattle Expansion Draft.
Toronto didn’t make it past the play-in round in 2020 and was eliminated in the first round of the playoffs three years before that. In the upcoming abbreviated season the Leafs will escape the brutally tough Atlantic Division for the intriguing and perhaps equally competitive, pandemic-created Canadian Division.
Under the superheated local and national spotlight of living up to Toronto’s Cup contender status, any short-sighted moves in 2021 will only give the Kraken better options when they evaluate the Maple Leafs’ list of exposed players.
Assumptions
In addition to his core four, Dubas has filled out his roster with many pending unrestricted free agents up front. As a result, this shrewdly gives him some salary cap flexibility while not presenting great forward options for the Kraken Expansion Draft.
However, Dubas has painted himself into a corner a little. He will have to re-sign one or two of those pending UFAs or acquire another forward or two to meet the NHL’s Expansion Draft requirements of exposing at least “two forwards who are a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played at least 40 NHL games the prior season or played in at least 70 NHL games in the prior two seasons.”
After the seven forwards identified below for protection, only Joey Anderson, Denis Malgin and Adam Brooks are signed beyond this season. None of them appear likely to play 40 games this season. And only Malgin, who played 44 last season, has a reasonable shot at reaching the 70-game, two-season mark. Anderson played 18 NHL games and Brooks played seven last season.
It’s pretty safe to assume the Leafs will make some trades before the midseason deadline, so any new forwards with term left on their contracts could be exposed or push some current players off the preliminary list below. We’ve compiled a protection list with the seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie scenario. But if the Leafs can’t lock up more forwards by draft time, they’ll have to go with the eight skaters and one goalie option that allows them to protect four defensemen.
Offseason Wildcards
Toronto is over the cap limit by more than $1 million as of Dec. 13, 2020, so it has some juggling to do before the season starts. Don’t expect that maneuvering to result in the addition of a significant player, however.
Maple Leafs Protected List
Forwards
Auston Matthews (Lock)
Mitch Marner (Lock)
John Tavares (Lock, NMC)
William Nylander (Lock)
Zach Hyman (Lock)
Alex Kerfoot
Pierre Engvall
Kerfoot and Engvall are on the bubble and could be exposed if Toronto obtains quality players worth protecting or other Leafs surpass them on the depth chart. Kerfoot will have a year and $3.5 million remaining on his contract next offseason. They might take a chance by leaving him exposed and protect someone else.
Defense
Morgan Rielly (Lock)
Jake Muzzin (Lock)
T.J. Brodie
Toronto just signed Brodie to a four-year, $20 million free agent contract, so he’s as good as a lock if he lives up to earning that salary. Otherwise the Leafs could leave him exposed in favor of protecting another defenseman, such as Justin Holl or Travis Dermott. And if the Leafs lose Brodie, it will at least free up some cap space.
Goaltender
Frederik Andersen (UFA)
Andersen, Toronto’s No. 1 goalie, will be an unrestricted free agent after this season. As a result, the Leafs will have a big decision on who will be their top netminder in 2021-22. Do they re-sign Andersen or use the $5 million in cap space to find a replacement via trade or free agency?
The pressure is on Andersen, 31, to have a strong contract year after an inconsistent postseason and the worst regular season numbers of his seven years in the NHL. He’s better than his 2.85 GAA and .909 save percentage showed, but his regular season 5-on-5 save percentage fell to .914 after seasons of .927, .924 and .928. We’re guessing Toronto will re-sign the big Dane and protect him.
Kraken Expansion Draft Players
Forwards
Joey Anderson
Adam Brooks
Denis Malgin
Jimmy Vesey (UFA)
Wayne Simmonds (UFA)
Anderson, Brooks and Malgin are depth players who will be fighting for roster spots this season. Whomever doesn’t make the cut will end up in the purgatory of an expanded roster taxi squad or dealing with whatever happens with the AHL Toronto Marlies’ schedule.
Anderson, 22, Brooks, 24, and Malgin, 23, have all performed well in the minors, so they’re at pivotal career moments to prove themselves. Only Malgin has spent more time recently in the NHL than the AHL. The native of Switzerland will also be the sharpest when training camp starts after being on loan to Swiss club Lausanne HC where he has notched eight goals and 12 points in 12 games this season.
Vesey and Simmonds were signed this past offseason to low-cost free agent contracts and are listed here in case they re-sign before the draft.
Simmonds is 32 and slowing down since he was a 50- to 60-point man in his peak years. But he always seems to be in trade rumors and was dealt before the past two deadlines. He could be a tough, grinding veteran option who might later be trade bait if the Kraken aren’t in playoff contention in Year 1.
Vesey, 27, is out to prove he can live up to the hype he had when he left Harvard. And the Kraken will be watching how he plays with his head ablaze.
If the aforementioned eligibility crunch drops Engvall, 24, onto the unprotected list, the 6-5 and 214-pound Swede would be an attractive option for the Kraken. He has speed, size and ability to play special teams that could see him blossom with increased opportunities.
Defense
Travis Dermott
Justin Holl
Zach Bogosian (UFA)
Here’s where the Kraken have some decent choices. Holl, 28, has been entrusted with more ice time and shut-down duties, but Dermott, 23, is more mobile and has better offensive potential.
Travis Dermott and Justin Holl had a night to remember during a 2018 game against the Islanders. Both scored their first NHL goals with their dads in the stands. #LeafsForeverpic.twitter.com/j4IV6ZO3NU
Fresh off helping the Tampa Bay Lightning win a Stanley Cup, Bogosian showed he still has more left in the tank. The 30-year-old could be an option if the Leafs re-sign him and feel the need to work a side deal with the Kraken.
Goalie
Jack Campbell
Campbell, the 11th overall pick in the 2010 entry draft, will have a reasonable $1.65 million and one year left on his contract before the Kraken Expansion Draft. This season’s compressed schedule should give Campbell more games to show whether he can push to be a No. 1 goalie.
Side Deal Scenarios
Dubas might want to steer Francis away from Holl and/or Dermott if they have good seasons and become important parts of the Leafs blue line in the team’s long and arduous chase for their first Stanley Cup since 1967.
If that plays out, Francis could turn his attention to one of those pending UFA veterans such as Simmonds, Vesey or Bogosian. To make this happen, the Leafs still have their first, second, fourth, fifth and sixth 2021 entry draft picks. Remember, Toronto traded its 2020 first-round pick to rid itself of former Seattle Thunderbird Patrick Marleau’s contract.
Other Notes
At least the options for the Kraken appear better than 2017 when the Vegas Golden Knights were building their inaugural lineup. Vegas did as well as could be hoped with what the rebuilding Leafs, having just made the playoffs for the first time in four years, left unprotected.
After a strong AHL season, forward Brendan Leipsic was a bottom-six energy guy who has since bounced from the Golden Knights to the Vancouver Canucks, Los Angeles Kings and Washington Capitals before he texted himself out of the league earlier this year.
Previous Sound of Hockey Expansion Draft team previews
Jim Wilkie is a longtime Northwest journalist, former NHL editor and NHL Insider writer for ESPN.com, a onetime GSHL All-Star, and SJHA hockey dad. Follow him on Twitter @jimwilkie.
It appears that the NHL season will start on January 13th with 56 games, or at least that’s the latest plan. It still needs to be voted on by the NHL Board of Governors, but it appears very close to being fully baked.
Realignment
Due to the ongoing border restrictions between the US and Canada, the NHL will need to realign for the 2020-21 season. How the divisions might end up looking has not been settled with the exception of the all-Canadian division. Here is a look at the latest reported alignment for this shortened campaign:
This can and has changed multiple times over the last week, and until we see it come from the NHL, we would recommend taking this alignment plan with a grain of salt.
Apparently, there was a proposal to kick the Flyers out of the league this year.
The stated objective of the NHL is to play all the games in teams’ home rinks. That is all well and good until you realize that some locations would not be allowed to even practice in their hometown due to local restrictions, let alone play games. It is a stark reminder of who is really driving the bus here.
The NHL and the impacted NHL teams will need to figure out a solution on a case-by-case basis. It remains highly possible that teams might have training camps and home games in other teams’ facilities to start the season until case counts decrease and restrictions ease.
Additionally, the league is talking about scheduling options to limit travel and exposure. One proposal is to have a potential series format. This would work like baseball where a team plays the same opponent for 3 games over 5 days in the same facility.
There are still a lot of questions around playoff format, fans, and schedule. We should anticipate hearing a lot more on the plans over the next seven days.
World Junior Championship
Team Canada has announced its roster for the upcoming World Junior Championship.
Sadly, friends of the Sound Of Hockey Podcast, Gage Goncalves (Everett Silvertips) and Seth Jarvis (Portland Winterhawks) were among the final cuts from the squad.
Remember, Team Canada had to pause its selection camp and have everyone quarantine for 14 days in a Red Deer, Alberta hotel due to positive Covid-19 tests in November. So, after going through all that, the last-second exclusions from the team have to be extra painful for everyone that didn’t make the final roster.
Former NHLers Ray Ferraro and Martin Biron had some words of encouragement for those that didn’t make it.
To add to this Marty-I had 50 goals at Christmas and never got invited to camp. Keep plowing ahead guys-respect the struggle to keep following your dreams, and climb over this bump in the road https://t.co/q15wENt8GK
Team Sweden had a rash of positive tests amongst players and staff, and actually had to replace its head coach, Tomas Monten. Sweden has now named Joel Ronnmark as its last-second head coach.
Team Russia did release its final roster on its website.
Ducks Fly Together!
Disney announced a Mighty Ducks reboot featuring Emilio Estevez himself as Gordon Bombay. And you know something? It… doesn’t… look… bad… ?
Stand Down, Internet
The internet responded in a predictably rational manner when John Shannon announced to the world via Twitter that the NHL was planning to privately purchase Covid vaccines as part of its season plan.
Source confirms that the NHL is planning the private purchase of a COVID vaccine for all constituents involved in the potential upcoming season.
He then waited 90 MINUTES (!!) to send a follow-up tweet, which surely was seen by a small fraction of the people who freaked out over the initial tweet.
For clarification…
The NHL is interested in securing vaccine when and if it’s available for private purchase.
Is it at this point? — no.
The league also is adamant they would not jump the line to do so.
The University of Alaska Fairbanks announced that it would opt out of hockey and basketball this season, following the University of Alaska Anchorage in making the difficult call. Alaska Anchorage’s decision effectively ended that program, as the school planned to fold hockey due to economic issues after this season. There are fundraising efforts underway to save Seawolves hockey, but as of now, it appears we’ve seen the last of that team. Meanwhile, there doesn’t appear to be any plan to fold the Alaska Fairbanks program permanently, though there is a lot of uncertainty as to what will happen moving forward.
It would appear that UAF head coach Erik Largen does not agree with the decision to opt out.
This means that the Western Collegiate Hockey Association (WCHA) will be down to eight teams when it starts play in January.
This will be the last season for the WCHA as well. You may recall, UAA and UAF, along with the University of Alabama Huntsville, have been essentially voted off the WCHA island. The seven other schools will form a re-booted version of the Central Collegiate Hockey Association (CCHA) in 2021-22, adding St. Thomas University to the mix for that school’s first Division I season.
It turns out signing goalie Sergei Bobrovsky and Stanley Cup-winning coach Joel Quenneville didn’t solve the Florida Panthers’ problems. On paper, it should have. The Panthers have talent but couldn’t rise above mediocrity last year and were ultimately sent home after a qualifying round loss to the New York Islanders. It’s that talent, however, that opens up interesting options for the Seattle Kraken in the upcoming Expansion Draft.
Bobrovsky should have made more of a difference. The season prior, Florida was one of the league’s top goal-scoring clubs. But the problem was in net. The Panthers were near the bottom of the NHL when it came to save-percentage. They just needed a goalie.
Bobrovsky didn’t play up to the $10 million a year contract he signed and Quenneville couldn’t get the team to live up to its preseason expectations.
The result was a change at the top. Out was general manager Dale Tallon and in was Bill Zito, whose name had long been thrown around as the next GM somewhere. With a new general manager calling the shots, the Panthers could go several ways in the Expansion Draft. Whatever they do, Seattle will have good players to choose between.
Assumptions
Zito has cap space heading into the season so won’t need to dump any salary right off the bat. The roster should stay stabilized during the season but that may depend on how the Panthers fare on the ice. They have room to add if they find themselves in contention but have guys like Patric Hornqvist or Anton Stralman who have salaries above $5 million and would be attractive to contending teams. If the Panthers struggle, those guys could go on the block.
The Panthers have some decisions made for them. Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Keith Yandle, and Bobrovsky all have no-move clauses in their contracts so will have to be protected.
For this exercise, we’ll assume that the Panthers will protect seven forwards and three defensemen but Zito could choose the eight skater route which would allow him to protect four defensemen. Florida has four strong players on the blue line in a group that might have a bit more depth than the team has up front.
Protected List
There are several ways the Panthers can handle their protected list, but regardless of the route they take, they will have to leave a talented player available to Ron Francis and the Seattle Kraken.
Forwards
Jonathan Huberdeau (NMC)
Aleksander Barkov (NMC)
Patric Hornqvist
Noel Acciari
Frank Vatrano
Brett Connolly
Carter Verhaeghe
A key player to circle here is Hornqvist. A consistent producer throughout his 770 NHL games, the 33-year-old winger can still contribute. He was traded this offseason from Pittsburgh – in a move that was a surprise to Hornqvist – and has three years left on a contract that will pay him $5.3 million a year. His production has slipped ever so slightly the past couple of years, but he still scored 17 goals and 32 points in 52 games last season.
By exposing Hornqvist, Zito could protect a couple of younger guys. We will protect him here but that is nowhere near being a lock.
From there the mix at forward depends on how guys perform.
Alexander Wennberg came to Florida this offseason from Columbus. Zito knows him well, and at 26-years-old he still has some potential. He’ll be a UFA at the end of this year and could play himself into an extension and potential protection.
Like Hornqvist, Brett Connolly is another veteran who could end up exposed. Connolly, 28, scored 19 goals for the Panthers last season and costs $3.5 million a year. He’s on the protected bubble, but if a guy like Wennberg re-signs before the season ends, Connolly could be available at the Expansion Draft.
Coming off his rookie season, Carter Verhaeghe is a player the Panthers like and could be protected with a strong second year.
Defense
Keith Yandle (NMC)
Aaron Ekblad
MacKenzie Weegar
Zito also has tough decisions on the blue line. After Yandle, former first-overall draft pick Aaron Ekblad will be a lock to be protected.
Then it gets interesting.
Does Zito protect Anton Stralman, Mackenzie Weeger, Radko Gudas, or Riley Stillman?
Stralman, 34, is a veteran of over 800 games in the NHL and has been a consistently solid defenseman, but Florida will want to protect Weegar, who has been impressive in his short career. He’s 26 and has three years left on a $3.5 million per season contract. Weegar has strong underlying numbers and chipped in offensively last year with 18 points.
That will push him onto the protected list, freeing up Seattle to choose one of the vets or perhaps take a flyer on Stillman who is 22 years old and has yet to prove it in the NHL.
The Panthers may want to keep both Stralman and Weegar which may push Zito towards protecting four forwards and four defensemen.
Goalie
Bobrovsky has a no-move clause and will have to be saved, but the Panthers need to make an eligible goalie available. Chris Driedger is the current backup but will be a UFA after the season so Florida would have to re-sign him to expose him. They could also expose 24-year-old Samuel Montembeault but would have to get him signed, as he’s currently a restricted free agent.
Florida Expansion Draft Candidates
Forwards
Henrik Borgstrom
Patric Hornqvist (if exposed)
Alexander Wennberg (potential UFA)
Defense
Anton Stralman
Radko Gudas
Riley Stillman
Markus Nutivaara
Goalie
Samuel Montembeault
Thoughts
If Hornqvist or Connolly are exposed the Kraken may take a long look. Hornqvist could provide leadership and can still produce offensively. He will be 34 when Seattle takes the ice but would only be on the hook for two seasons on his contract. If they feel they can squeeze enough out of him, he could be the pick.
Most likely, the Kraken will be looking at a defenseman and could land one who will produce right away. Would Seattle prefer established NHLers like Stralman and former Everett Silvertip Gudas or take a chance on younger, unproven guys like Stillman or Nutivaara?
Side Deal Scenarios
With cap room and no prohibitive contracts, it’s unlikely that the Panthers are going to entertain any trade scenarios.
During the Vegas Expansion Draft, the Panthers ended up losing both Riley Smith and Jonathan Marchessault to avoid losing a blueliner. They are set to lose a defenseman again this time around, but the question remains what Zito will do. He may just resign himself to losing a decent player to minimize the damage.
Did you miss our last Expansion Draft profile on the Nashville Predators? Check that out here.
