Calgary signed the best free agent goaltender available this past offseason, giving Jacob Markstrom a six-year, $36 million contract to leave division rival Vancouver. Markstrom, 30, bailed the Canucks out numerous times by stealing games and locking down leads while earning team MVP honors the past two seasons. He ranked second in the NHL with 20.16 goals saved (the net difference between the expected total goals allowed and the actual total goals allowed for all scoring chances faced by the goalie) last season, according to Clear Sight Analytics.
His elite play simply masks other deficiencies on his team, and the center position is one that will be under a microscope in Calgary this year. Sean Monahan and Mikael Backlund are good players who play big roles, but the Flames lack that superstar centerman associated with upper tier teams.
Missing the playoffs in the tight North Division – consisting of all the Canadian clubs – or losing in the first round for a third consecutive year will surely amplify the calls to trade star winger Johnny Gaudreau or Monahan. Any fallout from such a big trade will also alter what the Flames, who have just a little more than $223,000 in cap space as of Jan. 5, leave for the Kraken to choose.
Assumptions
Milan Lucic’s no-movement clause presents a big problem for Calgary general manager Brad Treliving. Lucic doesn’t deserve to be among the Flames’ seven protected forwards, possibly forcing the Flames to expose a good middle-six forward.
However, Lucic has waived his NMC before – in 2019 when the Edmonton Oilers traded him to the Flames. He could be convinced to waive it again, but what’s in it for him? Lucic holds some leverage despite his declining skills and production. We’d like to listen in on that conversation Treliving has with Lucic.
We’ll bet Lucic waives his NMC, and we will double down that Seattle won’t take him and his cap hit of $6 million per year through 2022-23.
Calgary Flames Protected List for Expansion Draft
Forwards
Matthew Tkachuk (Lock)
Johnny Gaudreau (Lock)
Sean Monahan (Lock)
Elias Lindholm (Lock)
Dillon Dubé
Sam Bennett
Andrew Mangiapane*
*Contingent upon Lucic waiving his NMC.
Mangiapane would be a good pick for Seattle if Lucic messes things up for Calgary and doesn’t waive his NMC. The 24-year-old notched 17 goals and 32 points in 68 games during his first full season with the Flames, so he’ll need to prove that wasn’t a fluke.
Bennett, 24, showed why he was taken fourth overall in the 2014 entry draft, playing a ferocious, hard-hitting style in the Edmonton playoff bubble. He needs to play more like playoff wrecking ball Sam (five goals and eight points in 10 games) instead of regular season passenger Sam (eight goals and 12 points in 52 games) to remain on this list.
Defense
Noah Hanifin (Lock)
Rasmus Andersson (Lock)
Chris Tanev
Useless fact: Tanev was a few rows in front of me at Night 1 of Pearl Jam’s 2018 “Home Shows” at the stadium formerly known as Safeco Field. How Seattle is that? He’s practically one of us, so it’s too bad the former Canucks blue-liner will likely be protected.
The Flames could still opt to protect Mark Giordano instead of Tanev, 31, who is six years younger and $2.25 million per year cheaper than Calgary’s captain.
Goalie
Jacob Markstrom (Lock, NMC)
Calgary Flames Targets for Expansion Draft
Forwards
Mikael Backlund
Glenn Gawdin
Calgary knows what it’s going to get with Backlund, who has had seasons of 47, 53, 45, 47 and 45 points in the past five years. That production is not likely to go up much now that he’s 31, so I can see Calgary protecting other forwards. However, Seattle would do pretty well to get a versatile center such as Backlund who can score in the 50-point neighborhood.
If you’re hoping Spokane native Derek Ryan heads Seattle’s way, it won’t be through the Expansion Draft. The 34-year-old center will be a free agent after this season.
Defense
Mark Giordano
Oliver Kylington
Giordano will be 39 when the 2021-22 season begins, so the Flames can take a chance they’ll lose their captain to the Kraken. Although Seattle would prefer to skew younger, getting this former Norris Trophy winner would bring a reliable veteran leader who should still be able to deliver a good all-around game and play both special teams.
Giordano will also have just one year left on his contract, reducing the risk for Seattle. As a result, he could be good trade bait at the 2022 deadline, and the Kraken will get $6.75 million in salary cap space freed up for free agents that summer.
Kylington, 23, presents a young and raw option for the Kraken. The 2015 second-round pick put up good numbers in four-plus AHL seasons, has scored five goals and 15 points in 87 NHL career games and is projected to be on Calgary’s third pairing this season.
Goalie
David Rittich
No other Flames goalie besides Markstrom is signed beyond this season, so they’ll need to get either Rittich, Tyler Parsons, Louis Domingue or Garret Sparks under contract through the end of the 2021-22 season to comply with Expansion Draft rules. Rittich, who will be an unrestricted free agent after this season, fumbled his chances to seize Calgary’s No. 1 job but is a decent backup.
The Kraken can do better to look elsewhere for a netminder in the Expansion Draft, especially with the Flames offering interesting choices at forward and defense.
Side Deal Scenarios
Let’s suppose Markstrom leads the Flames on a lengthy playoff run. Calgary might be tempted to keep the core group together, so Treliving would have to consider offering a prospect or draft pick to Kraken GM Ron Francis to steer him away from Giordano, Mangiapane or some trade deadline acquisition.
The Flames have some good, young talent on the horizon. Among them are three such prospects who have been playing recently at the World Junior Championship: Canadian forwards Jakob Pelletier and Connor Zary and U.S. and Everett Silvertips goalie Dustin Wolf. The Flames have all of their 2021 NHL Entry Draft picks except for a fourth-rounder. Calgary also has Edmonton’s third-round pick.
Just sayin’.
Previous Sound of Hockey Expansion Draft team previews
Jim Wilkie is a longtime Northwest journalist, former NHL editor and NHL Insider writer for ESPN.com, onetime GSHL All-Star, and SJHA hockey dad. Follow him on Twitter @jimwilkie.
SEATTLE — In a move to bolster their hockey operations department the Seattle Kraken announced the hiring of former Buffalo Sabres general manager Jason Botterill along with Norm Maciver on Tuesday morning.
Botterill will serve as an assistant general manager to Ron Francis while Maciver will be the director of player development. Both come to Seattle with extensive NHL experience as players and administrators.
We're excited to welcome Jason Botterill as an Assistant General Manager and Norm Maciver as Director of Player Personnel.
Most recently, Botterill, 44, was the Buffalo Sabres general manager. He was hired by the Sabres in 2017 before being unceremoniously fired in June of this past summer, weeks after receiving a public statement of approval from ownership. Prior to the Sabres, Botterill spent 10 years with the Pittsburgh Penguins as both an assistant general manager and director of hockey administration. He was part of three Stanley Cup Championship teams in Pittsburgh (2009, 2016, 2017).
The Sabres have missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs every year since 2011. Botterill’s last team missed qualifying for the NHL’s Bubble Playoffs by mere percentage points.
He brings a wealth of NHL knowledge and experience to the Seattle Kraken.
“Everyone in hockey is extremely excited about what’s happening in Seattle, and I am thrilled for this unique opportunity,” said Botterill in a team press release. “I’m looking forward to working with the diverse and talented team that Ron has assembled.”
Maciver joins the Kraken with three Stanley Cup rings of his own.
He’s worked for the Chicago Blackhawks for the past 14 years and was a teammate of Francis’ in both Hartford and Pittsburgh while playing 500 games in the NHL. In the Penguins front office, Maciver, 56, held a number of player development and personnel roles, including a stint as assistant general manager. He was part of Chicago’s Cup winning teams in 2010, 2013, and 2015.
“Norm was involved in Chicago’s recent cup winning teams and brings a lot of experience and knowledge,” Francis said in a press release. “I know him from our playing days and am pleased to reunite with him. He will do a fantastic job as we build out our team.”
Botterill will work with assistant general manager Ricky Olcyzk as the Kraken prepare for the NHL Expansion Draft scheduled for July 21st. The 2021 NHL Draft, Seattle’s first, will follow two days later on July 23rd.
The Arizona Coyotes experienced some on-ice success this past season. They made the NHL playoffs and beat Nashville in the qualifying round. Off the ice, the Coyotes experienced a series of calamities – to put it nicely – that saw them lose a general manager and get sanctioned. The result was a new general manager who has some intriguing roster decisions heading into the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft.
Bill Armstrong takes over as general manager and inherits a team that did not pick up many prospects in the 2020 NHL Draft due to those sanctions being imposed by the NHL. With the prospect cupboard a bit bare, Armstrong may have to focus on protecting as many young players as possible.
The Coyotes are under the cap, have some questions on defense, and have some interesting options at goalie that could draw the attention of Ron Francis and the Kraken.
Armstrong is new to the franchise, so we don’t have a track record with Arizona to try and determine how he’ll handle expansion in 2021. He has some young players, but most of them have yet to find consistent production in the league. There is potential but it seems that the Coyotes are always that team with potential – a potential that looks like it will break through, only it never does.
Can Armstrong navigate the Kraken Expansion Draft in a way that will let him finally harvest that potential?
Assumptions
The Coyotes have some notable players who will be unrestricted free agents in 2021-2022. What happens to those players will have an impact on who they choose to protect from the Kraken at the Expansion Draft. Arizona only has two defensemen – Jakob Chychrun and Oliver Ekman-Larsson — signed beyond this coming season and obviously will have moves to make prior to the 2021-2022 season.
Seattle could negotiate with the remaining blueliners just prior to the Draft if it wishes. It’s unlikely but veterans Niklas Hjalmarsson, 33, and Jason Demers, 32, have track records and could offer some value. It’s also probable that the Coyotes re-sign one or both, which would affect who they end up protecting.
For this exercise, we will assume that they are not re-signed, and that the Kraken do not pursue them at July’s Expansion Draft.
Arizona Coyotes Expansion Draft Protected List
Armstrong will most likely protect seven forwards, three defensemen, and a goalie. Sticking with the theory that the lack of incoming prospects into the system will have the Arizona Coyotes protect their younger players already in the NHL, the Clayton Kellers and Lawson Crouses of the world won’t be available during the Expansion Draft.
Forwards
Phil Kessel (NMC)
Clayton Keller (Lock)
Nick Schmaltz
Christian Dvorak
Lawson Crouse
Conor Garland
Christian Fischer
Veteran Phil Kessel is the second biggest hit against the cap – Keller is the highest-paid Coyote – and has a no-move clause. Kessel, 33, did not live up to his $6.6 million salary last year, his first in the desert. His production dropped from 80 points to 38 and he was a defensive liability. The Coyotes have him under contract for two more seasons.
Which forwards to protect is fairly obvious for Armstrong, although there is some question about the seventh forward.
It should come down to one of three players whose performances during the coming season will be key.
Christian Fischer, 23, is a three-year vet who has shown some signs that he can be a contributor but has yet to put it all together. He scored 15 times his rookie season in 2017-2018 but hasn’t matched that since and is coming off a season where he was quite bad defensively. But the potential is there, he’s young, and that may be enough for Armstrong to protect him.
In a similar boat is Tyler Pitlick, 29. He’s several years older than Fischer and has bounced around with three prior NHL franchises. A long shot to be protected is 24-year-old Brayden Burke who has yet to appear at the NHL level but is coming off two strong seasons in the AHL.
Realistically, it will come down to Fischer and Pitlick. Whichever player has the better season may find himself on the protected list.
Defense
Oliver Ekman-Larsson (NMC)
Jakob Chychrun
Kyle Capobianco
Ekman-Larsson and Chychrun have to be protected with their no-move clauses but after that it gets interesting. As the new season is set to begin, those are the only defensemen under contract beyond this year.
Armstrong will either have to re-up some or all of his current defensemen or dip into free agency this summer. Assuming Hjalmarsson and Demers are retained, there is a good chance one would end up being protected. If neither are back, an interesting name that may end up being protected is Kyle Capobianco.
Capobianco, 24, was a 2015 third-round draft pick and has only played 12 NHL games so far. However, he has spent three seasons with the AHL’s Tucson Roadrunners and improved each year. Last year, he scored ten goals with an impressive 37 points in 42 games which was good for seventh among AHL defensemen.
Goalie
Darcy Kuemper
Goalie is a position where the Arizona Coyotes offer the Kraken value in the Expansion Draft. They have three goalies who have NHL experience on the roster. Darcy Kuemper and Antti Raanta were the tandem last year and can be as good as any in the league.
Raanta is not under contract past this season and if not re-signed will become a free agent. It’s also possible that Armstrong could move Raanta at the trade deadline. Either way, he’s unlikely to be in the picture when the Kraken start selecting Coyotes.
That would leave former Portland Winterhawks goalie Adin Hill the target to be exposed to the Kraken at the Expansion Draft. Hill, 24, has been up and down with Arizona as an injury replacement and has looked good.
Arizona Coyotes Expansion Draft Targets
Forwards
Dryden Hunt
Tyler Pitlick
Brayden Burke
Defense
Kyle Capobianco (if not protected)
Niklas Hjarmarsson (if re-signed and unprotected)
Jason Demers (if re-signed and unprotected)
Goalie
Adin Hill
Thoughts
Adin Hill might be the best option among these available players. While he has yet to play a full NHL season, he has looked strong in the AHL and in his limited time up with the Coyotes. The Seattle Kraken may not want to hand over the top goalie spot to an unproven, young netminder like Hill in year one, but he could be a top back-up with an eye towards being the future starter.
If Capobianco is available, he’d be another player to consider for the Kraken. Like Hill, he has yet to prove it over a full NHL season but his AHL numbers are impressive. Negotiating with Hjarmarsson or Demers is also an option. Both are older, experienced, and would help the Kraken get to the cap floor, but there may be better veteran options elsewhere.
The forward group is not as attractive for potential Kraken Expansion Draft targets, though one interesting player is Dryden Hunt. He was a big-time scorer in junior and has had a look in the NHL with Florida. Hunt, 24, didn’t score much in his 63 NHL games but has had big years in the AHL.
Side Deal Scenarios
Arizona does not have any obvious side deal targets. A case could be made that they’d love to get rid of Kessel’s contract to save some money going into next season. He would have to be willing to waive his no-movement clause in order to head to Seattle and it’s unknown how willing he’d be to do that. If he does, Francis might be able to pull something out of Armstrong to take the cap hit. The Kraken would only be on the hook for his contract during the first season.
The IIHF World Junior Championship Quarterfinals start today. Through the Preliminary Rounds there was a lot of chatter about some of the blowouts, so I thought I would take the opportunity to look at the trends over the years to see if there might be a broader theme.
Margin of Victory
Thanks to a couple big blowouts by Canada and the US, the margin of victory has certainly inflated in the 2021 tournament compared to previous years. It would be premature to say there is a significant trend here, especially considering all the variables leading up to the 2021 tournament.
Average Goals Scored
Similar to the average margin of victory, the early blowouts by Canada and United States are certainly showing up in this “average goals scored by game” visual.
If you look over the last six years, this still looks like a blip on the radar as opposed to a full-scale trend. Canada saw an increase of four additional goals scored per game compared to 2020, while the US saw an increase of two goals scored compared to 2020.
Summary
Being that 2020 was such a unique year across the hockey world and that we are not seeing broad trends across multiple years, it would be premature to suggest changes to the IIHF World Junior format based on the 2021 Preliminary Round games. The games have still been enjoyable and for teams like Austria and Switzerland, they earned the right to play in this tournament. Regardless of the blowouts, the games provide upcoming players an opportunity to be seen on an international stage and to grow in their hockey career.
Enjoy the games!
Quarterfinal Saturday is set at the 2021 #WorldJuniors
Before New Year’s Eve champagne can be popped and the fireworks can start there is still a big hockey game to be played at the 2021 IIHF World Junior Championship in Edmonton. Team USA will take on Sweden in the last game of the preliminary round and it will decide the winner of Group B and all-important seeding in the quarterfinals.
With a regulation win, Team USA will win the group and get the easier pathway to the Gold Medal game. They’ll face a smarting Swedish group that had it’s unreal 54-game preliminary round win streak snapped Wednesday in a gut-wrenching 4-3 overtime loss. Russia won it with under six seconds left in the overtime period.
It will be a good matchup as both countries ice rosters loaded with future NHL stars. The Unites States boast 23 NHL-drafted players, nine of which are first-round picks. Sweden counters with 18 drafted players and six first-round draftees.
The USA stumbled out of the gate to lose to Russia but since has found its legs, its offense, and now has a shot of winning the toughest group in the World Junior Championship.
Russia beat Sweden in overtime which is only worth two points in the standings. That gives them eight points, and the US can get to nine points by beating Sweden in regulation.
The US has been on fire after losing to Russia in the opening game of the World Junior Championship. That game ended at 5-3, but the Americans played better than perhaps the score revealed.
A five-minute stretch in the second period saw goalie Spencer Knight struggle handling the puck and that resulted in two quick Russian goals. Knight was pulled for Everett Silvertips goalie Dustin Wolf who would hold down the fort which allowed the US to get to within one goal late before an empty-net tally put it away.
Anaheim Ducks prospect Trevor Zegras has sparked the USA and is tied for the scoring lead in the World Junior Championship with 10 points in three games. He’ll need to keep producing against the Swedes. Zegras isn’t alone as the US is getting balanced scoring and players like Matthew Boldy and Bobby Brink have had big offensive performances.
With Knight’s struggles against Russia, there was a bit of a goalie controversy that crept into the USA camp. Wolf started the following game against Austria and made 10 saves to earn a shutout. Knight was back in net the next night against the Czech Republic and he didn’t allow a score.
Spencer Knight is one of the top US goalie prospects ever (Photo courtesy of USA Hockey.)
Who will head coach Nate Leaman give the crease to Thursday?
Team Sweden Perspective
The win streak is over. It was heart breaking, losing in overtime with under six seconds on the clock. They won’t have time to mourn and can still win Group B. It’s simple, they just need to beat the US.
Sweden can score with the best of them and gets a lot of offense going from the blue line. Edmonton Oilers 2019 first-rounder Philip Broberg is having a strong tournament as is Arizona Coyotes prospect Victor Soderstrom.
Up front they are led by Lucas Raymond, a Detroit Red Wings first-round pick, who has been big during the preliminary games.
Like the USA, Sweden has options in goal and can argue they have one of the best tandems at the World Juniors.
Hugo Alnefelt is the older, more experienced goalie and played the first two games for Sweden. Against Russia, they gave the start to 2021 NHL Draft prospect Jesper Wallstedt. The younger of the two, Wallstedt, played well against the Russians but allowed four goals.
Was that enough to earn him a start against the Americans?
The USA – Sweden Matchup to Win the World Junior Championship Group B
Special teams are always Important in big games and will be a factor on Thursday.
The Swedes’ power play let them down against Russia, but they have been one of the better units so far. The USA comes in with the top penalty kill at the World Junior Championship. Whoever wins that battle will come out on top.
Both teams can score, but the US has a bit more firepower and skill up front than the Swedes do. Sweden’s defense is strong, though, so that will be another great strength-against-strength matchup to watch.
Sweden is coming off a tough loss to Russia that snapped their epic win streak. The USA club was off Wednesday and is more rested. In a short tournament, that could be the tipping point that will put the US over the top in this matchup.
It’s been a terrible year. Come say goodbye to it with the good fellows at Sound Of Hockey, who have been here with you through it all.
On this week’s Sound Of Hockey, the last of this atrocious year, John, Andy, and Darren chat about some real, actual hockey, as the World Junior Championship is in full swing, and it’s been super fun.
They also play a game of “Interesting Or Carry On” to review a flurry of recent NHL transactions, as general managers awake from hibernation and close out some last-minute business before training camps start.
Segments this week include Goalie Gear Corner (featuring this and this), Weekly One-Timers, and Tweets of the Week. Before leaving you for the last time in 2020, the guys share with you each of their favorite guests of the year.
